Goals.
We all need 'em.
But do we meet them?
Meeting my goals is a goal I seldom achieve.
The first place Mets, however, have a 47-40 record,
And a 3.5 game lead going into the second "half."
Very amazing considering the slew of injuries.
So far, they've achieved their main goal.
What goals could the Mets set for the last 75 games?
Let me set some for the hitters.
Tomorrow? The pitchers.
Pete Alonso: 17 HRs, 49 RBIs in the first 77 games. Numbers limited by an IL stint, cold weather early on, and an absence of base runners to drive in. He's heated up. I'd say 22 HRs and 56 RBIs in the next 75 games is reasonable.
Jeff McNeil: he has surged after a frigid start to .258 in just 158 at bats in just 53 games. I'd say his goal should be .330 over the next 75 games, to get him above .300 for the year. If anyone can do it...
Francisco Lindor: a prolonged, frigid start, partially (in my opinion) due to feeling hurt from booing, has been shaken off. But his last 15 games? .298/.431/.468. He's back, and may be smiling, but he's mad. Last 75? .280/.380/.480 is my estimate.
Third base conglomerate: Jonathan Villar, JD Davis, Luis Guillorme - all 3 saw IL time, especially the latter two. The trio has hit well enough (87 for 327, and including walks and HBPs, on base 138 times for a .365 OBP). Except for RBIs - 26. Last 75 games, a similar average and OBP, but 35 RBIs.
Michael Conforto: he was roughly equally productive while playing and while on the IL. .202?? 3 HRs?? 19 RBIs?? To make up for his first half follies, let's say he overcompensates and hits like he did in 2020 over 54 games, but does it over 72 games (we'll give him 3 days off). So, the rest of the way, he hits .322/.412/.515 with 16 doubles, 12 HRs and 42 RBIs.
Brandon Nimmo and Kevin Pillar: Brandon will play more than Pillar if he stays healthy, because his OBP was .408 in the first half, while Pillar's was .256. I like Pillar, but that is an easy call. Let's say the rest of the way, a .380 OBP for the two combined, with 10 HRs and 50 runs scored.
Dominic Smith (and not Almora, Lee and Maybin): the latter 3 were 5 for 86 - they have been banished. Dom started very slow (it was contagious). Smith's last 15 games are .304/.353/.543. Last 30 games, .272/.346/.478. Let's go in between: .285/.350/.515 for Smitty the rest of the way. Throw in 45 RBIs for good measure.
James McCann: another glacial starter, he hit much better (.286 over his last 30 games), but his RBI totals have been tepid, in part due to his having just one long ball over the last 30 games. Just 29 RBIs in close to 260 plate appearances must improve. I want 35 ribeyes over his next 240 PAs and a .260 average, up from his .249 first half.
Tomas Nido: .253/.306/.396 with 12 RBIs in 91 ABs? Just do that again in the second half, and all will be good.
Overall: 29th "best" in scoring per game. Speaks for itself.
That painful result needs to come up A LOT to (say) 10th in scoring in the 2nd half.
Too many good hitters for this injury-induced malaise to continue.
3.76 Runs Per Game so far.
10th is around 4.5 runs per game.
I therefore expect, as a goal, nothing less than 4.5 runs per game from these guys in the second half.
Boost scoring by 3/4 of a run per game, and you boost wins.
Last year? 4.77 runs scored per game, a full run per game better than this year so far. As I see it, even that 4.77 pace the rest of the season, considering the SS and catching upgrade over 2021, is not an unreasonable goal. Let's reach it.
What thinkest thou?
Maybe David and Herb will weigh in.
6 comments:
I split the regulars from the back ups (later group only guys up 18 or more times):
Regulars: .250, 1,562 ABs, 65 doubles, 53 HRs, 178 BB (the normal starting 8 of Alonso, McNeil, Lindor, Davis, Smith, Nimmo, Conforto, and McCann)
Subs: .216, 40 doubles, 35 HRs, 82 walks.
Two things are clear to me: the regulars have to hit a lot better.
And, with all due respect, the subs need to play a lot less.
I'd like to see the regulars over the last 75 games compile at least 1,600 ABs, with at least 85 doubles, 85 HRs, and a .275 average and a .360 OBP. Not too much to ask.
Subs, BTW, have had 991 official at bats. An average of almost 12 per game. That is too many if the team wants to win a pennant.
Of course, weeding out the truly marginal subs who hit terribly ought to realistically set the subs' 2nd half targets around .230 - .240.
Great analysis and goals Tom - My second half goal for Mets? 1 stay healthy. 2. Shorten swing with RISP and improve the at-bats in those situations.
The first half offensively was brutal compared to last season and I really expected much better but thats life and at least it started to come around the last few weeks. Lindor HAS to lead the way as it's time to man up my man and we should have CC and Peterson back but we need to add to the BP. Kimbrel would be my pick but I'll leave to the FO. Fact is we have to do better because there are 5 club playing .600+ ball we'll have to go through to win it all and after all isn't that what this is all about LGM!
John, thanks. I do think that having McNeil and Nimmo back and playing strongly will encourage more contact and fewer Ks.
I do think Lindor has hit .298 over his last 30, so with him, we need to put on blinders and ignore his distorted season stats.
Health is important. Starters should get 80% - 85 % of at bats normally, I'd think, but in the first half, the starters got barely above 60%. I think if our true starting 8 can do 80%, or even 75%, the offense will synergistically take off.
Gary, I could live with Kimbrel. Getting him could allow Lugo to perhaps spot-start in a pinch.
I do not want them to have to dip down for a Stock or a Yamamoto type - or even Peterson - we are in a win-the-division-or-else war, and we must win it. Which means greatly minimizing use of marginal guys.
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