Reese Kaplan -- A Prediction For the End of the Alonso Saga

Most of us as fans and/or writers are facing a bad case of Alonso Agita over the constant hashing, rehashing and re-rehashing of the negotiation saga between the New York Mets and their now former first baseman.  Let’s have a look at the pattern of what has happened that brought us to where we are today.

Back in the summer of 2023 the then General Manager Billy Eppler put together a seven year contract offer to retain Pete Alonso.  The total investment would be $158 million which averaged out to $22.5 million per year.  At the time Alonso was playing for a $14.5 million annual paycheck, so that jump of more than 50% in pay seemed like a reasonable number.  Alonso and his then agent felt that the total was too low.

At the end of the season Alonso hired Scott Boras as his new negotiating representative as he prepared to enter his final season under Mets control initially must have filled the team with a bit of trepidation.  After all, Boras was responsible for a great many inflated contracts above and beyond what baseball pundits felt was equitable value for what each of those players could deliver.

Also happening at that time was the Mets making the decision to hire David Stearns as its new President of Baseball Operations who also was going to serve as GM.  Billy Eppler was now gone and Stearns’ first major financial decision to make was what to do with pending free agent Alonso. 

Now if we can believe the sources who have cited numbers, the Mets under Stearns took a very different approach.  They proposed a three year deal with a single opt out for $90 million.  That average rate of $30 million per year was quite a bit higher than what Eppler had proposed but at the same time it was buying theoretically Alonso’s last set of highly productive years as he would be approaching age 34 when that contract ended.  With Scott Boras whispering in his ear, that deal was also turned down.

That brings us to the more-or-less present day situation where David Stearns pretty much showed who was in charge of this deal.  He read the market, saw that no other team was making any significant effort to lure Alonso onto their roster, so instead of going up in AAV or years, he held true to the three year proposal.  However, in recognition of the cold market for Alonso’s services he added another option year but lowered the rate to a total value of $70 million which works out to $23.3 million per season.  At his 2024 pay rate of $20.5 million it would represent more than a 10% increase in rate after two down seasons. 

Now sit back for a moment and consider what all has happened.  The long term and high AAV contract preached by Boras to his clients including not just Alonso but also Alex Bregman, J.D. Martinez and many others still on the unemployment roles.  He did land that record contract for Juan Soto but perhaps it came at the cost of lack of focus and energy for the many other clients he represents.

Rumor abounds that once Alonso signs a new contract which (also rumor) will be a return to the Mets he will fire Scott Boras for having sold him a fanciful bill of goods regarding his worth and the non-existent competition for his power hitting services. 

For now, we have losers on all sides.  The Mets have no first baseman, having thus far lost 40 home runs and 100 RBIs as an annual part of their offensive attack.  Alonso has no job and Spring Training begins in less than two weeks.  Scott Boras has earned no commission since no contract has been signed.  David Stearns seems to be playing this negotiation properly given the various circumstances. 

As a prediction, I think the Mets will come to an agreement with Pete Alonso at a higher value than what was previously offered but instead of being a multiyear deal with options it will instead be for a single year which tides over the team during his second free agent season while limiting the long term financial hit.