2/13/25

Tom Brennan: Lest We Forget; Leery of Siri; Alvarez is Psyched


How About A Look Back At Some Things We Tend To Forget

“Lest we forget….”

….some of the good pitching that got the Mets through 2024:

Amazing pitching stats: 

7 game winner Jose Butto threw 74 innings, and batters hit .167.   Nasty. 

Phil Maton in 29 innings had the team’s best WHIP (0.84). 

Dedniel Nunez? 0.91 WHIP/.189 BAA.   Sweet. 

Who would have thought before 2024 that they’d get roughly 150 innings from those three guys, with MLB hitters batting just about .175 against them?

(Of course, no "Mets Maton" in 2025. I imagine it will stay that way. After all…his playoffs were not awe-inspiring, with 16 runners in 6.1 IP).

Sean Reid-Foley, too. He held hitters to sub .200 (.173) in his limited innings in 2024. 

He unfortunately breaks down as much as a 1969 Chevy station wagon did back then. As in, way too much. 

(Sat 9, comfortably - well, OK, not so comfortably)

(My father’s 1969 Chevy Kingswood Estate wagon, which looked like the above except for the fancy wheels, was already sputtering and rusting at 4 years and 70,000 miles. 

Fortunately for him, there was a wave of car thefts in the early 1970’s in Queens. His car, along with 5 other of our family’s cars, got stolen over a span of a few years back then. The insurance money far exceeded Dad’s beaten up car’s trade-in value).

Meanwhile: 

Christian Scott started 9 games in 2024, threw 47 decent innings, but won 7 fewer games than Jose Butto - in other words, exactly zero games.  

Zero.

Weird. 

That sort of “zero” stuff won’t happen to Mets starters in 2025 with this thunderous Mets line up backing them up.  You start a game solidly, you will win most of the time in 2025.

Whitey Ford found that out in 1961. A modest 3.21 ERA, that relatively low in part because he pitched FOR the thunderous Yankees and not against them. He went 25-4 that year in 39 starts. 

In 1963, meanwhile, the Mets’ Carl Willey posted a better 3.10 ERA while not having the joy of facing meek Mets hitters; the Mets’ offense in support of him was brutal and he went just 9-14 in 28 starts. If he threw for the Yanks in 1961 like that, with a 3.10 ERA and all, he would have probably gone 20-3.  Location, location, location.

BATTING PRACTICE:

In 24 innings, though, opposing batters hit .320 vs. “BP Blackburn”.

Opposing hitters found him to be Groovy, Baby - "groove one right in here, Paul Blackburn, baby." 

(In his career, drooling hitters have raked against BP Blackburn to the unsavory tune of .279).

As a whole, despite the high BAA of BP Blackburn, the Mets’ pitchers allowed the 2nd best batting average against, .230. 

Why?  Just .218 allowed to opponents in Stingy Field, that’s why.

The Mets pitchers love Stingy Field for their ERAs. In 2024, a 3.57 team ERA at their stingy home, but 4.37 ERA on the rocky road.

Juan Soto will hit in a pitcher-friendly park.  He can't have everything.

TAKE OUT THE 2024 TRASH:

DJ Stewart, Omar Narvaez, Tomas Nido, Joey Wendle, and Zach Short hit a dreary .188 for the Mets in 351 at bats. Just eliminating that trashy hitting alone in 2025 will elevate overall team hitting production.

 The only guy on the Mets roster I think can, and will, explore that subterranean terrain is Jose Siri.

LOOK OUT BELOW:

Jose Siri, in his career when he hits on a 2 strike count?  Which is 63% of his plate appearances? 

Ugly results - as in:

.131/.198/.229. And a 58% strikeout rate when he gets to 2 strikes. How do you spell Overmatched?

You, Mr. Manager Mendoza, might just want to pull him for a pinch hitter at times when he reaches 2 strikes in close games…what would you have to lose? .131?

Very similar Siri career #s (overall and with 2 strikes) to Mets bust Keon Broxton. 

Remember Keon? I try not to.

If Stearns and Mendoza are smart, Siri will be mostly a 5th outfielder garnering few at bats.  Tyrone Taylor isn’t a great offensive hitter, but is much better than Siri, and almost as good defensively.

Offense begets offense. I vote for Taylor, who has moved to the center.

Anyway, if you can’t hit “above Mendoza”, I'd say you better get used to sitting next to manager Mendoza…a lot.  

Come on…

PLAY BALL ALREADY.

Francisco Alvarez sure wants to.  

SNY recently interviewed the 23 year old catcher.  Some excerpts are below, which when I read them made me very excited about his upcoming 2025 season.

Alvarez said he is coming off of his best off-season - he made a little change.

“Hitting, catching, mentally. I think I worked a lot on my [mentality] part, I think that’s the more important [aspect], so my mind is going to be way stronger than last year.


Alvarez admitted “I lost my mind for a little bit. If I have bad moments this year, I think it’s not going to affect me like last year.”


Alvarez said he made some mechanical adjustments during offseason work with a hitting coach. “I made a lot of adjustments, I’m gonna do a lot of new things. It’s going to be way different. I really trust what I’m doing, I really like what I’m doing. My bat is no more on my shoulder, I’m not going to do the tap again, I’m going to do a little less leg kick.”


Alvarez says he is feeling "way stronger right now” and his thumb isn’t going to be an issue. “Last year was my worst year and a little bit tough, but I think this year is going to be great,” he said, adding about the thumb: 


“This year I have no excuses for nothing.”


WHOO HOO!


BAEZ AND PENA - LOOKING GOOD


Rising Apple wrote that newly signed super-elite prospect Elian Pena has at age 17 already been ranked extremely high in the Mets top prospects, noting "Peña, a left-handed hitter with blooming power, is undoubtedly an exciting prospect", and adding that MLB has Pena ranked as the Mets' top prospect for 2027.


Rising Apple added the cherry on top when it noted this about Jesus Baez:


"Baez, a SS/3b, has seen his stock skyrocket in prospect rankings. Baseball Prospectus ranks him as the Mets' No. 6 prospect, while Baseball America goes even further, placing him third and even including him in their top 100 prospects overall. This meteoric rise is fueled by a combination of raw power, an elite arm, and improving plate discipline."


I see you smiling - it's OK.  Go ahead and smile.


10 comments:

Mack Ade said...

"Taking out the trash"...

I find this statement harsh

All the gentlemen listed in that paragraph accomplished much more than 99.8% of the young men that ever ran on a baseball field. They also busted their ass as a Met.

I hope none of you think they should throw away their 🏆 they earned since grade school

Tom Brennan said...

Harsh, yes. But this is directed more at the Mets, that perennially have had several players compiling 100s and 100s of at bats in a season and hitting .180. If 10% of a team's at bats are from guys hitting .180, that is unacceptable. It is how otherwise winning teams don't win, and this organization has "not won" so many times - and I define winning as simply making the playoffs.

Jon G said...

I dint think Mendoza would pinch hit for Siri in a close game in late innings unless the winning or tying run was on base. Late innings in close games demand stellar defense

JoeP said...

How about we call it...Addition by Subtraction. Hopefully, we will replace these underachievers with superior players.

This Blackburn signing is a total head scratcher. Why pay 4+mil to this guy? Also, if Siri is anything more than a defensive replacement our lineup will take a definite hit.

Tom Brennan said...

JoeP, I have not watched Siri with 2 strikes. But my guess is he is swinging from the heels. His career may be in its final year if he does not figure out how to hit .230. Try to learn to protect the plate with 2 strikes. Choke up, etc. The very similar Keon Broxton when he joined the Mets had one last chance to prove he could not constantly whiff. He kept whiffing, and his career abruptly ended. Why? Because there is a conveyer belt running, with younger, cheaper talent.

Jon, I know it would be embarrassing, but if the game is tight, men are on base and Siri gets to 2 strikes, and I can pinch hit for him? I pull him with 2 strikes and let someone else try. Those 2 strike numbers are brutal.

Tom Brennan said...

Blackburn seems like a #7 or #8 starter to me. A .279 career average is very high. The median MLB team hit .243 last year. Big gap.

TexasGusCC said...

I agree, but mostly for Tomas Nido, he’s still our guy and we love him.

TexasGusCC said...

A couple of things from the gallery of information Tom has levied on us:
- I had forgotten that 12 months ago, Scott was the top Mets pitching prospect with great numbers at Syracuse - where everyone else caves in. So, what does that tell you about Scott and how do the others compare to him?

The stuff from Alvarez is just wonderful, but I hope he truly means them. In an age where everyone is super sensitive about saying anything negative about themselves (remember Alonso saying he was happy with his year last year because after all, he did make the all-star team), I’m glad to see Alvarez be humble and tough on himself and show us that he has high standards. If there is one guy on the Mets that I think I can trust even before I meet him, it’s this guy. Love the make-up. He’s growing and learning before our eyes. Lock him up!

Tom Brennan said...

Gus, Alvarez will be our Yogi - and that's real good.

Scott had 4 very winnable starts that he got NDs for. Not his fault. His last 2 starts, he was more hittable - the elbow was probably barking.

The question with Scott is, did the sweepers etc. he threw to be successful raise his risk of re-injury when he returns. He is no Elroy Face until proven otherwise.

Gary Seagren said...

The thing to remember is Alvy is just TWENTY FRIGGING THREE!!! lets give him some time and hope Soto's attension to detail and hitting acumen rub off on our "Yogi". After all we should get some residual benefits for 750 mil don't you think.