HOPEFULLY, PARADA'S 2025 WILL HAVE HIM GRINNING EAR TO EAR
Kevin Parada was the 11th overall pick in 2022.
In 2022, he started his pro career briefly, but well:
55 plate appearances, .275/.455/.425.
.455 OBP? Maybe that would have been a good time to trade him, as a high first rounder coming off of those limited, but impressive, numbers.
In 2023, he played mostly in Brooklyn, hitting a decent .265 there, with 96 Ks in 87 games. Not bad - many do worse in Brooklyn with the stick. Ks there were a bit high, but the whole league's K rate was high.
A late season promotion to AA saw the start of his hitting woes:
He accrues just 10 hits in 54 at bats, with 23 Ks in 60 PAs, a high K ratio.
But it was just a AA adjustment period, right?
Seemingly, the answer to that is no.
He hit poorly in Arizona in the fall of 2023, just .186 with 4 walks and 29 Ks in 75 times up. Not good at all. I started to wonder then.
In 2024, solely in AA, he fanned 153 times in 114 games, a disturbingly high rate. Over 162 games, that rate would result in 217 Ks.
He hit .214, but even in his best month, when he hit .300 in July, he fanned a lot - 27 times in 79 PAs.
He still managed a .304 OBP in 2024, due to 53 walks and HBPs in those 114 games, a high free pass rate.
His low .214 season average was due in good part to his slumping (after that .300 July) to the ugly tune of .136 in 24 August games, followed by a rebound, going 10 for 40 in September. Remove the August disaster, and the rest of the season, he hit a better .234.
Another key number for him is that he will play most of 2025 as just a 23 year old (turns 24 in August).
Me? I would try whatever I could to get him to succeed at the dish in 2025.
One thing I noticed is that in the first inning, he hit .279/.347/.488.
But he often did not get up to hit until the 2nd or 3rd innings, often hitting further down in the line up. Didn't go well.
In the 2nd and 3rd innings, he hit just .111 and .167.
What does that tell me, if I am managing him? I'd bat him 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the line up, not only because he hit better in the first inning by far, but also it would likely give him 30 or 40 more at bats on the season. He's your first round pick, maximize his at bats and see if increased AB repetition lifts him higher, faster.
And I would encourage him to not try to work a lot of walks by taking first pitch strikes. Be a free swinger early in counts and get the strikeouts down. In 154 at bats where he was behind in the count, he hit just .162 with a very high 91 Ks. Make more contact early to avoid being behind in the count. Worry about walks later in your career.
And perhaps do defensive choke-ups with 2 strikes. Talk to Jeff McNeil about that while you are in camp. He may share something that's very helpful in that regard.
Bottom line is he needs to cut his Ks by about one third. Full stop.
Doing so will boost his average significantly in 2025. More base hits, less pressure.
But he is in a tough spot.
For instance, Tomas Nido has a negative career MLB WAR, but at age 23 in AA, while he hit just .232, he fanned only 63 times in 404 plate appearances (15.5%, vs. Parada's 33.7%).
But in the majors, Nido fanned 245 times in 945 PAs (26%), a significant JUMP over his AA numbers. MLB pitchers are strikeout masters.
So, Kevin has a big task ahead. It would really behoove him to cut his 2024 K rate in half to significantly increase his chances of at least achieving the MLB level of success of Tomas Nido.
Of course, on the other hand, there was a Mets prospect who hit a higher .280 in AA and AAA but still rolled with a fairly high 318 Ks in 276 games. He's doing pretty good now.
His name? Mark Vientos.
And let's remember that Jarred Kelenic in 500 at bats in his first two MLB seasons hit a horrid .168, then he got a lot better the last 2 years. And Brent Rooker of the As stunk until he turned 28, and then hit well at age 28 and tremendously in 2024 at age 29.
Likewise, maybe Parada just had a VERY bad hitting year and is ready to take a big upwards leap, like those guys did.
My conclusion?
Don't lose hope.
Parada deserves our giving him 2025 before deciding whether or not he is future MLB timber. But he won't be if he can't stomp down on the Ks.
Lastly, I could not readily see how he hit as a DH vs. as a catcher. He was a DH in 40 games in 2024 and a catcher in the other 74 games. If he hits better as a DH, then flip those numbers and let him catch 40 games and DH 74. Basically, do everything possible to get him to hit better in 2025 - the catching should not be the major focus.
#11 OVERALL PICKS PARADA AND DOM SMITH HAVE SIMILARITIES
Dominic Smith was an 11th overall pick in 2013, weighing 185 at the time of signing out of high school. Bad eating habits, coupled with sleep apnea, ballooned him to 260 when the Mets called him up from the minors some years later.
Parada, also an 11th overall pick, albeit more recently, had a sweet tooth problem last year (according to an article by Anthony DiComo).
The sweet tooth caused him to add a bunch of weight, and probably hampered his performance.
This winter, he altered his diet to reduce desserts, and dropped 15 pounds, coming to camp with more muscle and "less baggage".
My suggestion:
Sweets should not be eaten by Kevin. Just say no. Say yes to success.
I find sweets to be rather addictive, and relapse into overeating sweets is easy, so I would recommend Kevin have zero dessert tolerance. Skip them entirely.
At least until AFTER you sign your big free agent contract 8 years from now.
We all get hungry. When you get hungry?
Feast on pitchers instead.
FRANKY MONTAS BLUES
Montas has not thrown a single inning for the Mets, even in spring training. And he gets hurt and will miss 6-8 weeks. The good news is 6 weeks from now is early April, so he'd not miss much of the season. The bad news is "Mets 6-8 weeks injuries" typically are longer in actuality.
Remarkable, huh?
Is Matt Allan ready? Imagine being the Mets pitcher who is not getting into spring games while Matt Allan is.
Look at the bright side on Montas - Dave Dravecky had it worse. (I'm sorry, I am cranky this morning and when I am, I write weird stuff).
I'M SO VLAD, I'M SO VLAD, I'M VLAD, I'M VLAD, I'M VLAD
The lead-in line being a parody of the 1960s Cream hit song "I'm So Glad". Why be glad about Vlad? SNY reported the following on Tuesday:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays did not agree on a contract extension before Guerrero's self-imposed start of spring training deadline, which means Guerrero will hit free agency after this season -- leaving open an incredibly intriguing possibility for the Mets.
If the Mets get Vlad next off season, this definitely won't be your mother's Mets anymore. Instead, there will be frequent peels of thunder in Queens.
16 comments:
I don't know if Thor's 2017 lat injury (2017? How time flies) is worse than Frankie's injury, but Thor essentially missed all of 2017 after his end-of-April injury. Let's hope it is not that bad.
Yes when is it ever 6 to 8 weeks? On the pitching front Q anyone?
Perfect timing Tom: Hot off the pressed, an article posted a few hours ago in The Athletic was very informative on how players are using the Mets hitting lab to learn their problems. Here is a snippet:
“Stuck in a funk for most of last year while in Double-A Binghamton, Mets catching prospect Kevin Parada said he often thought to himself, “Man, I really don’t know what’s going on … I think I know the problem, but I’m not positive.”
Multiple visits to the lab since the end of last season helped Parada figure things out.
“My data showed I’d leg kick, but when I’d go to land, I’d be crashing into my front side,” Parada said. “So I’d be putting way too much force during a short period of time instead of having control. So they found that that would give me issues with my bat path because that would throw off my body.
“So, my struggle, based off the numbers, is elevated pitches in the zone. And they found, based on how my body moves, when I would crash, I would go to swing and be uphill, making it hard to hit that elevated stuff.”
Wow, Gus - that - and cutting down desserts could make Parada the Comeback Player of the Year. I wish Parada all the best. But he needs to get the Ks down, and if the lab only partially fixes that, he needs to not work the pitchers so much. Swing at early strikes.
Tom, successfully teams usually have the highest pitches per at bat in the league. Also, pitchers used to throw junk at first to try to get you to get yourself out. The careful approach over the years has changed that. But, I’d be careful about becoming the next Wily Mo Peña and swing yourself out of the league
He first needs to swing himself in before he swings himself out of the league
LOLLL, I guess
I add a blip on Parada tomorrow morning.
As for Montas, the 6-8 recovery window to 4-6
I agree with Tom concerning Parada. He needs to be more aggressive early in the count. The hitters that strike out too much get themselves in a hole because the opposing pitchers know that they will not swing much early and can try to get ahead by just laying a strike in the zone. The hitters need to change the pitcher's mentality about this and make them make a good pitch early.
I suspect Vlad made an error this year by not signing the best offer that Toronto threw at him. I really hope that the Mets do spend stupid money on him. While I admit that he is a very good hitter, some of last year's success can be attributed to an unsustainably high .342 BABIP. That was 65 points higher than the previous year for him.
It looks like a few words of your post are missing. Are you saying that the 6-8 week estimate has been reduced to 4-6?
The Vlad situation is interesting. If Pete's opt-out is exercised, I can see the Mets aggressively going after Vlad. But what if he doesn't opt out? Do the Mets go after Vlad anyway, perhaps moving Pete to DH in '26? Or if Petr has the kind of season we all hope he does, do they extend him instead of going after Vlad?
It'll certainly be fun to watch play out.
My wonder concerning Vlad, if first basemen did not get paid this year, why will they get paid next year? Would I rather have Alonso at a four year deal or Guerrero at a fifteen year deal? Why would Guerrero’s age curve be different from Alonso’s?
Montas in a SNY article said he felt he would be back in 4-6 weeks.
It would be different because it will be 4 prime years before he reaches Pete's current age. And he and Soto are the same age.
I really like Gus's point . .if you won't pay Pete from ages 30 - 36, especially when you consider what he has given them in his ages 24 - 29 seasons, why on earth would you pay Vlad that much for his 27 - 38 seasons? You just stole a whole lot of value from Pete and are too cheap to pay for a few more years to one of the best hitters the organization has ever produced?
R69, just gotta remember that Vlad hit 82 points higher than Pete in 2024.
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