Well, Spring Training got off with a bang with a home run from new rightfielder Juan Soto along with three send ‘em up and shut ‘em down innings from reliever-turned-starter Clay Holmes. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that the Mets haven’t really addressed the need to cover the innings Frankie Montas will miss due to injury. Yes, there’s Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning, Paul Blackburn and Max Kranick as in-house options. With neither Canning nor Blackburn having options to go to the minors and Kranick somewhat deep among the spare starters it leaves Megill as the front runner who could lose out considering he has a minor league option remaining.
Now to hear the Mets tell the story, the month of April is filled with a lot of off-days and rainouts, so they really don’t need that extra starter until May. Given the initial news regarding when Montas can resume normal baseball activity, you’re perhaps looking at some 4-6 turns of the rotation as the weather warms up.
Of course, that proclamation could simply be marketing hype to hold down the desperation the club feels given that high lat injuries are not known to be something that goes away quickly for a pitcher. Many here (myself included) have wondered why signing Jose Quintana to an inexpensive deal this late into the upcoming season hasn’t materialized.
Yes, there is the infamous Steve Cohen payroll tax which will convert any new expansion of the payroll into a number double what it says on paper for agreed-upon salary. Consequently a modest $5 million contract really costs the club $10 million. While Cohen most certainly has deep pockets, you have to wonder how willing he is to reach inside them that way for a 36 year old starter towards the end of his career.
Others have suggested that the long rumored trade for someone like Luis Castillo might be a smart move but again the long term deal in place costs way more than the team might like to accept. Consequently a buy low candidate with longer term options might make more sense.
Enter stage left Sandy Alcantara currently not playing for the Marlins. He signed a 5-year deal back in 2021 before succumbing to TJS which cost him part of the 2023 season and all of 2024. His playing numbers actually exceed those of Castillo. For his young career he owns a 3.32 career ERA.
Go back to the 2022 full season to see what he’s really capable of doing. Then he pitched to a 14-9 record with a 2.28 ERA and won the NLCy Young Award when he earned an 8.0 WAR metric for being essentially unhittable. For a period of four full years from 2019 through 2022 he has a 3.07 ERA and earned 4.1 WAR per season.
Yes, he did regress to a 4.14 ERA before the injury was revealed in 2023. Then he missed all of 2024. He’s currently earning $17.3 million as a 29 year old in 2025. Then he repeats that number as a 30 year old in 2026. An option exists for a return at age 31 in 2027 for $21 million vs. a $2 million buyout.
Given that he had a poor 2023 and has been down and out for a long, long time, the cost to acquire him should be significantly lower than what it would take to land Castillo, he earns quite a bit less and could be here for three seasons without extending his deal. It’s food for thought, Montas injury or not.
3 comments:
Supposedly he was pitching 99mph yesterday?
Interesting on Alcantara. I only watched a handful of Kranick pitches, thought he looked good.
I am not sure why the Marlins would want to trade Alcantara for a
'cost significantly lower than what it would take to land Castillo'. Alcantara is younger, and yes he is returning from injury and is not making that much money for an almost ace quality arm. I read someplace that the Marlins are making more from the league revenue sharing than their roster costs them, so they are not in a real cost cutting mode. If they are in a rebuild mode, Alcantara is one of the only guys on that squad that could get them back a good prospect load.
The word is that he looked good yesterday and will be back in 2025.
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