Good morning.
Mets signed RHRP/CL Andrew Carson to a minor league deal.
The 24-year old specialist has pitched for three colleges over this school
career, ending with the University of Tampa last season. The other two were
Bowling Green and Michigan State. He was undrafted in the last draft.
Last season, in 14 outings, he pitched to a 2-1, 1.06, 0.91-WHIP, 34-IP,
32-K, 5-SV, 11-BB stat line.
This seems to be a no-brainer decision to sign him, though I would have
liked to see him pitch more often last season. The internet says a pitcher with
the same name has suffered all his life with arthritis, but I can’t confirm it
is the same guy we are writing about here. Other than that, there doesn’t seem
to be any injury history here.
Normally a pitcher right out of school gets assigned to either the FCL
Mets or St. Lucie, but his age could push him to Brooklyn. We’ll see.
I reached out to Joe Urso, his Head Coach at The University of Tampa (National
Champions - 92, 93, 98, 06, 07, 13, 15, 19, 24) to get his take on what the
Mets have here:
“He was one of our main bullpen arms all year and has plus stuff and movement. His fastball has explosive sink in the low to mid 90’s. Sharp slider as well. Change up is a distant third pitch that he will need to develop to keep left handed hitters off balance His low 3/4 arm slot will give right handed hitters trouble and should be a great bullpen arm for you guys.
I have two questions.
Who found this stud and why didn’t any team draft him?
Pete is in the house. Probably for only one year, but I’ll take it. My
guess is that he will NOT produce numbers large enough to opt out and will
become the Mets 2026 DH when they sign Vlad. Just a dream of mine.
I also don’t expect him to ever see the kind of offer again like the long
term one he turned down from the Mets. That’s not on Boras. All Pete there.
I wouldn’t cry for him though. He has and will make more money than any of
us have or will see and I’m sure he is financially sound.
Still the Alonso era will always be tainted by this year’s events.
Sad.
Christopher Soto @SotoC803
Updated
#Mets payroll figures curiosity of the GOAT Ethan Hullihen .
If this
amount were to hold all year (it wont), the Mets would have to pay a tax bill
of $65,010,307
Deesha @DeeshaThosar
Pete Alonso's reported 2025 salary of $30 million makes him the highest-paid first baseman in MLB this year. Trailing him:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., $28.5 M
Bryce Harper, $27.5 M
Freddie
Freeman, $27 M
Matt
Olson, $22 M
Christian Walker, $20 M
Well, pitchers and catchers officially report on February 12th.
The backfields will open to the general public on February 14th
at 9:30am.
Position players will report on February 17th.
The first full squad workout will be February 19th.
It was my honor to have press credentials for three years, which included
attending this pre-full camp event.
It was private when I was allowed to be there. This was not a fan event
and the field was locked up, both at the front and back fields. Now, fans can
attend every day beginning at 9:30am
Because it was private, it was also much more intimate. You didn’t see the
large attendance by players invited to be part of the development camp, so
there were very few players there other than battery mates.
Everything was loose. The players used this time to begin their spring
training repertoire and coaches weren’t wielding the whip. There were no
official press gaggles and those of us that were allowed to be on the
backfields watching what transpired were just left to our own observations.
The highlight was also the backfield pitching mounds that are located
about 100 yards up from the minor league clubhouse (the main clubhouse was not
used for pitchers/catchers… everyone reported to the back gates every morning).
You walk towards the main clubhouse and then turn left past the first back
field. Walk down around 30 yards and there were multiple pitcher mounds and
catcher positions. This was where events took place.
I lost those credentials because I screwed up. I never read the agreement
I had to sign to get those credentials, which clearly stated that I couldn’t go
online and report from the fields. I was also turned in by someone as a
blogger, which was taboo in those days, even though I was an established newspaper
reported for the papers that covered the Savannah Sand Gnats, Jay Horvitz decided to permanently pull my pass. My understanding is
this cost future bloggers entry which caused for much ill feeling towards me.
Sure wish I could go back and start over there, but it was a special time
for someone that never believed I would someday be in the clubhouse interviewing
the likes of David Wright and Jose Reyes.
Phillies
Tailgate @PhilsTailgate
The Phillies have acquired RHP Josh Hejka from the New York Mets in exchange for Cash Considerations.
Will
Sammon @WillSammon
RHP Dylan Covey and INF Luis De Los Santos were assigned outright to Triple-A Syracuse, per the Mets.
2025 MLB
Farm System Rankings For All 30 Teams
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2025-mlb-farm-system-rankings-for-all-30-teams/
12. New
York Mets
Top
Prospect: Jett Williams, SS
Many of
the Mets’ top position prospects—Jett Williams, Jesus
Baez, Ronny Mauricio—missed time with
injuries in 2024, but a strength-in-numbers farm system pushes New York toward
the middle of the talent pack. College pitcher draftees Brandon Sproat, Nolan McLean and Blade Tidwell are on the cusp of MLB.
Top 30
Prospects
Previous
ranks
2024: 8
2023: 5
2022: 16
2021: 19
2020: 25
Ernest Dove @ernestdove
Honestly sounds about right to put Mets around the middle of
the pack. Seemed like an awkward step back 2024 milb season plus injuries all
over the Mets top 30 prospects that year. Coaches/staff among other things
excited about Benge/Santucci & a handful of 2024 draft arms.
MLB
Here are
10 prospects who JUST missed the Top 100 list
Carson Benge, OF, Mets
If we had to pick a prospect who ranked 101st, Benge would
likely be that person. He played well during his cameo with Single-A St. Lucie
after going 19th overall in the 2024 Draft, as you'd expect from a college
hitter. Not only was the Oklahoma State product well disciplined, but he also
whiffed a minuscule 17.2 percent of the time. Benge's power was more impressive
in college than in pro ball to date, but as he adds weight and gets the ball in
the air more, he should project for above-average power. Plus, he has the arm
you'd expect from a former two-way prospect that should enable him to stick in
center field or right.
Ryan Clifford, 1B/OF, Mets
Clifford took a while to get going last season. For the first
two months, between High-A Brooklyn and Double-A Binghamton, he hit just
.192/.371/.298 with two home runs and a 34.5 percent strikeout rate. But from
June on, the hulking slugger slashed .247/.373/.486 with 17 homers and a more
manageable 26.8 percent K rate. While Clifford is not likely to hit for a high
average -- in part because his patient approach leads to many two-strike counts
-- his disciplined eye allows him to get on base at a high rate, and his
tremendous power is a big reason why he enters the year as the No. 7 1B
prospect. He'll be one of the youngest hitters in the upper Minors this season
-- not turning 22 until July -- giving him time to iron out his rough areas.
Amazin Avenue –
Brandon Sproat, SP
The Mets probably aren't going to draft the same guy twice just to jettison him in a trade a year after he rocketed through their system. The former Florida Gator strapped a rocket to his back and dominated in Brooklyn and Binghamton before ultimately landing in Syracuse to finish out the year. All together, Sproat posted a 3.40 ERA with 131 K's in 116.1 IP. With his frontline starting potential, it would be malpractice for other teams not to ask for Sproat in a trade. It would also be malpractice for the Mets to be willing to part with him without a massive return coming to New York. Any trade involving Sproat would need to be a major win for the Mets at the major league level.
Ryan Clifford, 1B/OF
The one pure power hitter in the Mets farm system. Unless Pete
Alonso signs to an extended length contract, the need for a 1B prospect is
there for the Mets, only raising the bar for how tight you should be hugging
Clifford. He's hit 45 HR in the 3 seasons in the minors, and he's still only 21
years old, so keeping Clifford in the fold for the Mets farm system could be a
key part to the future. David Stearns mentioned that they liked the prospects
that were coming up, and it's fair to assume that Clifford is part of that
group he's referring to. After a slightly down year in 2024, a bounce back year
in 2025 should really lock him into a tighter prospect hug.
Drew Gilbert, OF
For some reason, some fans have labeled him as "injury prone" after suffering multiple setbacks last season in Syracuse. If you ask any player, it's rare to not have any ailment during a baseball season. One of the prized prospects in the Verlander trade, all signs pointed to an in-season call up for the young outfielder, but it was the injuries that seemed to derail that hope. Once again the former Tennessee Volunteer should be geared up and looking at a potential call up in the 2025 season as long as he can return to his usual self. Gilbert has hit 30 HRs in the 3 seasons in the minors, 16 with the Mets system, and if he can show that pop and return to his norm then he should absolutely be someone to hang onto.
The Mets have used the thought process that they won't call up a prospect just to sit them, they want them to play, so it'll take a combination of struggles in the majors paired with Gilbert performing well in order to get him up to the Mets. With that being said, Gilbert is the closest OF to the majors on the prospect list. Fans tend to grow tired of bringing in AAAA players, and guys who struggled elsewhere to fill the holes on our roster, and that should only make fans want to hug certain prospects more. Gilbert should be one of them right now.
Jonah Tong, SP
While Tong may be an enticing name for other teams due to his age, and performance in the minors last season, that's all the more reason that the Mets should hug him. Hugging prospects is tough, and always subject to change due to performance, necessity, or outside factors, but Tong seems like he's on the rise and it's a credit to the Mets development system that he would be on anyone's radar.
At only 21 years old, Tong sent hitters down and kept things in check last season, and there's no reason to think that won't continue. Tong struck out 160 batters in 113 innings, but more importantly, he only allowed 3 HRs all season. In 134 innings, he has only let up 6 longballs total over the two seasons he's been in the Mets system.
For comparison, Mets top pitching prospect (and fellow huggee) allowed 14 HR across his season last year, while Nolan Mclean let up 10, and Blade Tidwell let up 18 last season. Tong's continued development, age, strikeout rate, and unmatched skill at preventing HR's are all major tools that lean in Tong's favor.
He's probably
not going to reach the majors this season unless something major happens for
both Tong and the Mets, but if he continues to dominate the minors, it won't be
long. The Mets haven't had many pitching prospects that have dominated the
minors and shot to the majors very often in the past decade, so keeping one
close to the vest would be a smart measure for the team to make.
Codify @CodifyBaseball
2025 Playoff Chances (PECOTA):
100% LAD 90% ATL
87% CHC 78%
NYY BAL NYM
75% TEX 69% PHI
2025 World Championship Chances (in %, from PECOTA):
21.6 LAD 9.4 NYY
8.5 ATL 7.5 CHC 7.2 TEX
7.0 BAL 5.8 HOU
5.6 NYM
2025 World Championship Odds (@FanDuel):
+250 Los Angeles Dodgers
+750 New York Yankees
+900 Atlanta Braves
+1100 Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets
42 comments:
Good morning! I will cherry pick a few topics here to discuss.
1. Gilbert was hurt in the Astros system too, and was traded when he got healthy. I will agree with that moniker until he prices otherwise.
2. In Keith Law’s writeup of the Mets prospects, he said that McLean has #1 pitcher stuff but very little control. Sproat has a fairly straight-ish fastball but an awesome slider. Tong has the best fastball even at 93 but his Tim Lincicum type delivery doesn’t allow him to go side to side as easily.
3. I don’t identify the Braves as good as the models see them. Ozuna is not a demi-god; their pitching rotation is not as good, especially if Sale isn’t healthy; and they sat out the free agency this past winter for a reason - we just don’t know what yet.
That’s all from me for now. I would like to again mention that the Mets can have can have over $100MM coming off the books if Diaz and Alonso opt out. I’d like them to re-invest that in high end arms, and if they want to add a stud, give me Tucker instead of Guerrero and put Nimmo at first base.
I happened to look at Pecota last night, and with Pete, they jumped to the high 80s in terms of playoff chances.
Drew Gilbert is an injury-prone 5’8” power hitter. 3 more inches and I would be much higher on his future prospects. He is 24…no more needless injuries for him. Jose Siri might falter…if so, Drew needs to be ready.
He pulled your credentials, but you have staying power, and it had to be cool to hang out with those players.
Sproat simply needs to do a little something to unstraighten the fastball.
Andrew Carson needs to remember that Seth Lugo would not have been selected in the 20 round drafts of today - he was a 34th rounder. Lugo has gotten it done.
Dodgers under PECOTA have a 112% chance of making the playoffs.
Morning Gus
1. I was thrilled when the Mets traded for Gilbert but I have gone full luke warm on him after such a miserable 2024. I now look to others to fill center
2. Re: the three starters mentioned..
I believe these three will be future starters for the Mets. Conservatively, 2026 for Sproat and 2027 for McLean and Tong.
However, I project all three in the SP2-4 range
Morning Guys. Gus your take on the prospects is a little scary. The bloom is coming off the Gilbert rose quickly. I had such high hopes for him. Sproat sounds like a future closer, unless somebody can teach him DeGrom's rising 4 seam fastball. With Tong, lets see if our pitching lab i good as they say.
Honestly can't see Diaz opting out after this year. Who the hell would give him 20m going forward. Feel the same about Pete. That 30m is a 1 off. As far as Nimmo goes you may be right because he is a horrible outfielder. Weakest arm in baseball.
The biggest problem I see is we have a team of DH's. By year 3 Soto should be our everyday DH. Put Pete, and Nimmo in that category also.
3. The Braves, on paper, match up kind of even with the Mets now. Wildcard is how Strider comes back
1. The 2025 Mets are a better team with Pete
2. I don’t see a clear cut centerfielder right now in the future
3. Total cool
4. My guess is that's what the labs are for
5. True dat
Morning Joe
1. I believe the future Mets closer will be Blade Tidwell
2. I agree with you on your contract assessments on Diaz and Alonso
3. "A team of DH's"... are you sure you aren't one of those Mets Twitter guys?
Morning Mack,
1. Mets are much better with Pete in the lineup.
2. Jet Williams for CF?? Benge?? Although been reading he's a better corner outfielder.
3. Tidwell is an interesting thought
No Mack, I'm not even on twitter. Old school for me. We seem to be trading defense for power. Need a better balance. Below average at 1B, 3B, LF, RF. That's why they had to get that clown show Siri. Whatever he brings with the glove is not worth the .200 hitter he is
I like Jett. I really like Benge. But it's too early to commit to either
You may be right here and you know how much I value defense... especially down the middle
My hopes is the Mets can package some of their kids and go out and get a real deal centerfielder in the next off-season
So really our only hope in the near future is Gilbert. At this point if he is serviceable, I would take it. Let's say .260, decent CF, very spunky player I can live with that. Every team has to have baseball players, not just HR hitters.
Right now I have little faith in Gilbert
I definitely agree. Sad but true.
I would to like clarify my position Gilbert. While I was trying to point out his history, I believe he never really healed last year. We have seen the taller Sterling Marte be set back by a balky hammy, and I believe Gilbert was too. To me, the proof was the AFL. That was roughly AA competition and we know he mastered that already, yet he couldn’t handle it last October and November. I think we will see a much better version of him this year and hopefully standing between two other outfielders in Queens in August wearing a Mets uniform. But, I do believe he plays a bit recklessly.
Nimmo is a great ambassador for the Mets. He was a good CF so he can still chase them down as a corner outfielder for a few years. Yes, his arm is weak. Yes, I wonder what kind of hitter he wants to be. I believe he has morphed into a player that prefers the homerun, specifically from one interview that he said he was looking to hit a certain pitch out of the park. It sounds like growth as a hitter, but it also doesn’t sound like the Nimmo that got that contract. Or, is he pressing to justify that contract?
If I could see a version of Alonso that I haven’t seen in a while, it would be the one that was interviewed in the minors by MMO. That kid was hungry. His mentioning last year that he was satisfied with his year because “after all, he was an all-star” tells me that he isn’t reaching for new heights anymore. He isn’t talking about MVP’s, or Silver Sluggers, or the Gold Glove he always wanted to get. Back then, the kid interviewed said he wanted to win every at bat, every pitch… and he kept a book on each pitcher. Does he still do that? Maybe. But, I feel Alonso gets too caught up in his bank account and isn’t the player he can be. If he can be that kid again and finds the drive and fun that made him a stud, he can be a stud again. Right now, he’s obviously a first baseman that was insulted this past winter. Let’s see how he handles that.
Mack, I love your view on the prospect pitchers. I have no problem with that
Joe, the reason Diaz will opt out is the reason every player rejects the QO and then can’t get a deal; most are short sighted and greedy. They want more years and going into the end of his prime, his agent will tell him his chances of getting more years is by opting out. Heck, I want Soto to opt out in five years!
You guys like Louis Robert? If you can use your chips to get only one this spring of a healthy Louis Robert or a healthy Dylan Cease, which one you want?
Background info: Robert is signed fore this year at age 27 and has two team option years remaining.
Hi Gus, I really hope you are right about Pete. Hopefully with Soto on board he doesn't have to carry the weight of the whole team anymore.
I long for the old Nimmo. He we would look so good batting second with a .380 OBP in front of Soto and Pete.
If Diaz goes the greedy route, then don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out. He would be lucky to get the same salary in 3 years as opposed to the 2/40 he has left.
I would jump for Robert. Cease is not an ace
Gus, you seem to be quite high on this guy. To be honest I do not know that much about him. It does seem like he has very good potential. I would take a flyer on him if the cost was low. Maybe something like Baty and Blackburn to offload some salary.
Would love Cease but the cost is too high. I don't see it happening. They want Sproat and Williams. I would trade Sproat, but not Williams, only if we had a window to extend him. Otherwise, I'm out.
D O N ' T T R A D E S T A R T E R S
Loud and clear
My favorite time of the week - finishing my coffee with Mack's Sunday Observations. I am a little late this morning and 30 comments behind :-(
I'll add a few thoughts just because that is what I do:
Hamstring injuries scare me - they can get to be a long term issue. I do like Gilbert, but if he's got to figure out how to manage his injuries.
Somebody - hopefully 3 somebodies - among Sproat, Tong, McLain, Tidwell, and my other personal favorite - Matt Allan, will make the middle of the Mets rotation.
I remember watching Tidwell pitch a couple games in Binghamton and think he has the mental makeup of a starter. He may very well be a closer, I never considered that.
Andrew Carson . . .Who knows? can an undrafted dude make it to the show? A few do, but it is rare. I'll remember the name and suspect I'll see him in Binghamton sometime later this year.
My final? thoughts on Pete: I am very glad he came back. I think he takes the Mets from an 85-86 win team to a 93-94 win team. I don't think there is a snowball's chance in hell he will opt out after 2025, no matter what he does. I think he has a monster year and the Mets will extend him for 3 or 4 more years.
This is probably a nit at this point and I don't know what it means, but his contract actually read a $10M signing bonus, $20M for 2025 and $24M for 2026 if he does not opt out. I suppose you can read that as $30M for 2025. Not sure there is any difference.
Pete's final numbers in 2025 cannot be judged in a vacuum. This is a team sport and he will improve others around him. There is no way to calculate it, but I believe Juan Soto will see a bump in his WAR value for the year by at least a full point (run?) because Alonso is batting behind him.
I'm with Gus on Atlanta - I just don't see how they are that good. Ozuna had a career year in 2024 and Sale won the Cy Young. Not many guys with the Cy Young twice in a row - he is due for some regression - and it says here that Ozuna cannot replicate his numbers. Olson and Riley might have a little more they they showed last year, but Olson's year in 2023 was an outlier for him. They lost both Fried and Morton from the staff. Acuna won't be back in June and most guys don't play at their top level if they have not played at all for a year and a half. I may have to eat my words by October, but I just don't see the Braves as being the cream of the crop.
My two prospects of the year picks are Benge and Tong.
Benge in Binghamton by August, Tong will be a real part of the discussion for a 2026 rotation spot on at Citi.
And the one I didn't get to: If I had to make a pick to get either Cease or Robert, I guess it would have to be Cease.
I want no part of Robert. They have two capable defensive centerfielders on the roster already. The guy has just 2 of 5 seasons with WAR over 3, even with his glove, one at 3.6 and one at 5.0. The 5.0 season of 2023 was decent on the surface, but peeling it back just a bit, without even getting into any of the new analytics measurements shows a pretty bleak picture. He hit .264 with a BABIP or .314 or about 25 points higher than league average. He had 75 extra base hits and 80 RBI. Of those 75 XBH, 38 were home runs meaning that he had a mere 42 RBI for a full year that was someone other than himself. And that is with 34 doubles and 1 triple. That is one RBI that his not himself once every four games. Ugh. Lastly in his best year of 2023 when he finished 12th in the AL MVP voting and was an All-Star he struck out 172 times and walked just 30 (including 5 that were intentional). His ratio in 2024 was marginally better with 28 walks and only 141 Ks. He has walked less in his career total than Juan Soto has in any non-Covid year since 2019. I don't want a guy in the line up that strikes out 7 times for every time he walks and cannot drive in runs and has to have a .314 BABIP just to get a .264 BA.
I also don't understand the people that were OK to watch Pete Alonso walk away "because he had a down year and is regressing" and think Luis Robert will be a good addition. Robert has played one full year without injury in the last 4 years and when he was on the field in 2024, he was terrible. Coming off a year hitting .224, with an OBP of .278 and an OPS of more than 100 points lower than Pete's "washed up" year, I just gotta ask why would you want this guy?
Can you tell I'm a hard no on Luis Robert? I also don't want to trade for Cease (I don't think he is a true ace - a career 3.75 ERA and 1.252 WHIP does not scream ace to me), but he would be better than Robert for the same prospect cost.
Good morning Mack, and everyone. A few reactions:
1. I like Nimmo, but that contract… hard to see him as a valuable OF at age 36-38. Glad we’re not tied to Alonso on that 7-year deal he rejected.
2. I think that Jett Williams has as good a chance to be our future CF as anyone.
3. Pete seemed to get better late last year when he became more aggressive, taking fewer strikes early. This is something that Tom has pointed out/encouraged him to do, and I agree. He struck out more, but his BA/OPS improved significantly. Let’s hope that we see the aggressive Pete this season. Tom, maybe you could show up at games waving a sign to remind him.
4. Very big year upcoming for a whole slew of prospects… Baez, Mauricio, Gilbert, Williams, Acuña… Stearns was supposed to evaluate and get a handle on the system last year, but the sheer number of injuries to top prospects robbed the org of that chance. It’s also why I think they were still hesitant to trade prospects this offseason. Let’s hope that by the end of this year, they’ve all been healthy and we can see at least a couple of potential big league contributors emerging from that group.
May I remind everyone that Acuna, Jett, and Gilbert on average are maybe 5’7”? How many good short major league hitters besides Altuve are there? How many average ones are there? How many marginal ones are there? Yet we expect a Trifecta from these 3. I dunno. Thankfully, Benge is 6’1”.
Mack, if we get three #2 - #4 starters over the next 3 years, and Tidwell as a bona fide closer, we are doing all right. Maybe Santucci a 2-4 in 2027, too.
Adam, that is the problem with long, level $ contracts. Nimmo’s 8 years at $20 per, in reality, should have been $30 $30 $25 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 =$160. But flat contracts hope that cheap talent can come up to offset overpaid player salaries late in their deals.
I think we bid against ourselves for Nimmo. Who was giving Nimmo more than 6 years. That contract is also the reason why Pete didn't accept his contract. I guess he figured if Nimmo got that, what would he be worth.
Very true, Tom. And they’ll never unload the last few years of that contract without paying it way down. Hopefully, Nimmo’s foot heals and we get 3 more solid years out of him, giving time for someone like Benge (Morabito?) to emerge as an every-day replacement.
One of the reasons that I speak of moving Nimmo to first is his arm, but the other reason is that I like our outfield prospects as a whole - and that includes Williams and Clifford’s rocket arm - to our infield prospects. I think the Mets with Mauricio/Vientos at 3B/DH, and Acuna/someone else at second (Williams?), is the best Mets infield. Then you have Benge, Clifford, Gilbert, Williams?, Morabito and Baty for the outfield. Then you only thing upsetting the apple cart is Peña’s and Baez’ arrival.
Can’t wait to have these arguments!!!! LOL
Thanks to all of you
Eagles suck
I know I can over react (LOL) but when in our Met history have we gone into ST a sure shot at making the playoffs and sit back an argue silly stuff like where Soto hits in the batting order or who's our backup first baseman or does Diaz not except his QO? Bottom line here is from Timbuk 3 "The Futures so Bright I gotta wear Shades" and laughing at the proposed luxury/Cohen tax of $65 million which I think he made on Friday. Lets Go Mets and kick some serious ass this year!
1986, 1987, 1988
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