2/6/25

MACK - My Thursday Observations

 



Good morning.

 

Amazin Avenue – 

Jesus Baez, SS/3B

Baez is probably at the level where he's not going to be the focal point of any trade, he'll be the icing on the cake instead of the sponge. He's not one of the Mets top 5 prospects, he not even top 10 by a lot of people's views, but he's solid. An injury cut short his season last year, but Baez saw time at the hot corner, and was able to slash .267/.313/.467 in his 8 game stint in Brooklyn. Overall, he saw 72 games last year before the injury and managed a .262/.335/.447 slash with 11 HR's throughout. Baez isn't close to the majors, he's the farthest one away from it in this article, but Baez has been consistent throughout his time with the Mets. Third base is manned by Mark Vientos for the foreseeable future, but as of this writing, we don't know if he'll be moving over to first base in the mean time either. If Vientos moves over to first, it only makes keeping the best prospects around that fit that position. Baez does that. With most of his starts in the minors being at shortstop, the Mets moved him over a spot and he didn't miss a beat. As far as potential goes, the sky is the ceiling for Baez. Hug him tightly, Baez seems like he's destined to be more than a throw in at this point in time.

 

 Jett Williams, SS/OF

Jett Williams' name gets brought up quite a bit whenever anyone mentions a trade involving the Mets. Williams has shown versatility to play shortstop and the outfield, and he's got a surprising amount of pop in such a small frame to go along with his ability to draw walks and get on base. Williams wore out pitchers in 2023 by drawing 104 walks in 121 games, and even with injuries derailing his season last year, he managed to get 22 walks in the 33 games he played. The problem with Williams is if you think he's a better outfielder than Drew Gilbert, or if you think he's a better 2nd baseman than Acuna. His main position is shortstop, which is blocked by perennially snubbed Francisco Lindor. So what to do with Williams? Ideally, being able to keep all of the top 5 prospects would be a good win for the Mets in the event that they do land a big name pitcher, first baseman, etc. If teams are engaging with the Mets about trades, Williams is surely to be named in any talks. And the Mets absolutely should entertain the idea.

 

Ronny Mauricio, 2B/SS/OF

Some people act like it's sacrilege to mention Mauricio in any trade talk, and not just because he's coming off a season ending injury before the season even started last year. In 2023, Mauricio slammed 23 HR in 116 games to pair with his .292 average forcing the Mets hand to call him up for a small sample size of 26 games in the big leagues. Once Mauricio hit the big leagues, he hit .248 with 2 HRs to pair with a .296 OBP. The issue with Mauricio is similar to the one with Williams. You have to find a place for him to play. The simplest answer would be to put him as a DH and let him use his power and hitting skills regularly to negate his average at best fielding skills. During his time in the minors, Mauricio saw time at 2B, SS, 3B, and LF all to different extents and durations. He committed 93 errors at shortstop (393 games), 12 errors at 2B (56 games), 1 error at 3B (2 games), and 3 in left field (26 games), so it might just be the best option to keep him as a DH who occasionally plays the field rather than a player who occasionally DH's. As a plus, he did have 0 errors at DH (42 games) so even as a tongue in cheek joke, it is a fact. Mauricio's upside is there, but where does he fit? If he can help you land someone who wouldn't be a question mark on where he fits, then it's something that should absolutely be explored.

 

Brett Baty, 3B/OF/2B

The once beloved prospect seemed to fall behind in the race to win third base, and with Vientos going bombs away, it doesn't appear that Baty will be reclaiming the first place price barring a position change for Vientos. It's been rumored, hypothesized, shouted from the deeper corners of the fanbase that the Mets should trade Baty away for whatever they could get, or throw him into a trade for a legitimate return. While he did struggle after awhile in the majors, it's important to remember that major league baseball isn't easy, and not everyone tears it up right away. See: Mark Vientos. It's also important to remember that Brett Baty transforms into Barry Bonds whenever he ends up in Syracuse. The potential is there for Baty, he shows glimpses of it when he's in Syracuse, he just hasn't been able to be consistent at the major leagues. Whether that be because every time he got going he'd be out of the lineup the next day, or because he starts to swing for the fences too much, Baty has been a victim of some mismanagement and some of his own deficiencies. With that being true, Baty still presents a very intriguing prospect for other teams. Every team and front office tends to think they can "fix" players and prospects, and maybe a place away from the bright lights of NYC would help Baty similar to how he performs in Syracuse, but it's something the Mets should definitely be hyping up in the mean time while they try to figure out whether or not he still fits into their plans at the major league level.


RHP Dylan Covey was been designated for assignment. This answers the ripe old question that I was asked recently… can you rid your team with someone you just signed in the off season to be part of your 40-man squad. As you can see, you can.

It will be interesting to see if Covey passes through waivers and winds up back in Syracuse on a minor league deal. I really liked this guy when he played school ball.

 

I keep telling all of you about all the so-called “can’t miss” talent that comes out of either high school or college, only to be humbled when they try to become a successful major league player. Let me tell you about the person that might be the best example of this.

Derek Tatsuno (“The Tsunami”) was a pitcher at the University of Hawaii. He earned the then NCAA record as the first pitcher to log 20 wins in one season and went on, over a three year period, to go 40-6, with a 2,04-ERA, an overwhelming 34 complete games and 541-Ks.

The NCAA named him Pitcher of the Century.

Pretty good, huh?

Must have been the precursor for a great professional career, right?

Well… he lasted for only four seasons in organized ball. He did get to the AAA level, but logged only a 5.52-ERA in 1986 and 6.60-ERA in 6.60. His K-rate was only 7.0.

The best pitcher in school history only did this.

 

Ernest Dove      @ernestdove 

I'm worried about Luisangel Acuña continuing to trend upward after his mlb cup of coffee but if he was the centerpiece of the package I feel like I would be ok with it. He & Jett Williams remain technically the same person IMO so keep one of them etc. 

Dove wanting to trade one of the prospects he hugs? You read it here first… 

 

Pat Ragazzo         @ragazzoreport

Starting pitching is always expensive. So what if the Mets beefed up their bullpen instead?

Edwin Diaz closing with A.J. Minter, Ryne Stanek and Tim Hill setting him up would be the best and smoothest route. 

I too am hoping that the Mets add one more quality pen piece and Hill is definitely worth considering. 

 

Brian Recca        @brian_recca

The NBA trade deadline is in 4 days. Meanwhile, MLB free agency has stretched 4 months with no end in sight. Bregman, Alonso, Flaherty, etc. remain unsigned. Ridiculous how this has become a yearly thing. Can we get a signing period, please? 

What a great idea! Why didn’t I think of this.

 

Mets Analytics        @MetsAnalytics

Jesse Winker in the 2024 postseason (32 PA):

.318 BA     .531 OBP     .636 SLG     224 wRC+     7 BB

3 HBP      4 K    

2 triples     1 HR     7 R      4 RBI      1 SB

44% Hard-hit%     0% Soft-hit%     +34% WPA 

This could easily be  the reason why the Mets wanted this guy back…

 

NYDN – Brandon Nimmo ‘fully’ plans to be ready for Opening Day amid recovery from plantar fasciitis

https://www.nydailynews.com/2025/02/01/mets-brandon-nimmo-opening-day-plantar-fasciitis-francisco-alvarez-luisangel-acuna/?s=03

Brandon Nimmo is optimistic about his recovery from plantar fasciitis, even if the injury remains something he has to contend with.

The Mets left fielder received an injection in his ailing left foot after last season and has been going to physical therapy for it throughout the winter.

“The biggest thing is being ready for Opening Day, and to that point, we’re just gonna try and go as fast as the foot will let us,” Nimmo said last weekend at the Amazin’ Day fan festival at Citi Field. 

I continue to never understand why a professional athlete can’t heal during an entire off season.

 

Amazin Ave – Tyrone Taylor will provide depth in the outfield in 2025

https://www.amazinavenue.com/2025/2/1/24355666/tyrone-taylor-mets-series-preview-brewers-outfielder-bench-2025?s=03

In fact, on the Opening Day roster, Taylor may be the only viable outfielder on the roster outside of the Nimmo/Siri/Soto trio. Both Jesse Winker and Starling Marte are technically still outfielders, but their defensive performances are likely unplayable for any significant periods of time and, depending how bleak your view is, may be unplayable even in short bursts. With the Mets burning two roster spots on non-fielding hitters, there likely isn’t room on the bench for another outfielder, and so a lot is going to fall on Taylor. 

I actually believe Siri is more of a major factor than Taylor; however, I am not a fan of any combos at any position. Give me a full-time player every time.

 

Daniel Wexler      @WexlerRules

13 Mets made ESPN’s top 200 prospects 

        Dallas - SportSpyder       @dallasrpi

        200/30 = 6.67 so that’s better than average!

 

Each team's best non-Top 100 prospect

https://www.mlb.com/news/each-mlb-club-s-best-non-top-100-prospect-2025?partnerID=web_article-share

Mets: Carson Benge, OF

Benge was a legitimate two-way prospect at Oklahoma State, but the Mets preferred him as a hitter for good reason. His bat-to-ball skills were plenty evident during his early run in the Florida State League, and there were signs that he could get above-average power, especially if he can improve his ground-ball rate. Benge mostly started in center, but his plus arm certainly fits in right too if/when he needs to move more permanently down the line.

    Benge is getting an awful lot of positive press without even picking up a bat again. I too agree he is one of the Mets top five prospects and my hope is he remains in center.

 

Jim Koenigsberger          @Jimfrombaseball        

“I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did."

Yogi Berra

 

"Brooklyn was the most wonderful city a man could play in, and the fans there were the most loyal there were"

Pee Wee Reese

 

"Take a look at all of them: Marichal, Jenkins, Spahn, what do you think made them successful? They conditioned their arms by pitching more, not less, starting from when they signed their first contract."

Tom Seaver

15 comments:

TexasGusCC said...


Mack, while there is something here for everyone, I will address merely a few of your entries.
1. Last year, Luchessi was banished to the minors for not being in baseball shape. I believe Nimmo has an obligation to his contract to also be ready to go. None of this, “I should be ready by opening day” bullshit. I work in a restaurant and two years ago my coworker had plantar fasciitis. He got it scheduled and in a very simple procedure was able to alleviate the pain with three months of recovery. I don’t understand why Nimmo couldn’t. Years ago Corey Seager was a young shortstop for the Dodgers and was asked after multiple MVP’s, what still motivates him? He said that in that organization there’s a kid as good as you that wants your job. Nimmo signed a very graciously offered contract to be a baseball player. At this point, I would DL him until he is completely free of pain and at 100%; he had all winter. Platoon Winker and Marte until he is ready. That’s just bullshit by Nimmo, and I’m surprised at his preparation.
2. I wouldn’t trade any of the kids. The system as a whole had a down year and all these guys are at low value. What’s the point of trading them for that? As for Acuna, he doesn’t need to be a superstar or even a starting player to be valuable. He has speed, plays many positions well and can hit some. The “some” needs to be identified. While he may not be the player we saw in September, a #9 hitter that can fly and plays strong defense has great value to a team that has alot of thumpers. It’s actually Williams that I’m more worried about. He doesn’t seem to have a plus position and I wonder outside the walks and speed if he has a plus bat.

TexasGusCC said...

3. Mauricio made one error in two games at third base and he already has shown incompetence there? LOLLLLLLL! Let the kid play third base, that’s his spot.

Paul Articulates said...

That's a ton of good stuff. I particularly liked the commentary on Baez, Mauricio, Williams, and Baty. There are a lot of pieces that can be moved around in trades, giving the team flexibility in deals without gutting the farm system of talent.

Mack Ade said...

Gus and Paul

Thanks for your comments this morning

Rds 900. said...

You know me. I'm a huge fan of developing our home groun kids and keeping them.

TexasGusCC said...

Paul, I’m surprised Mack is down on Baez. I’ve seen him as high as #3 based in analytics and Law absolutely gushed about him. Too, I still feel Baty as a backup corner guy in both infield and outfield is the perfect scenario for the Mets.

If you ask, “Gus, what do you want to see by 2026?”
I’d say no Winker, no Marte, no McNeil, no outside infielders brought in. Give me Acuna, Mauricio or Baty starting in the dirt with the others in support places, and Gilbert and Clifford being ready to back up in the outfield. Williams can wait until 2027 so Taylor, Siri and who knows who else has left.

Remember1969 said...

Sorry Mack, I slept in a bit this morning with the freezing rain pelleting against the window.

Yes, your observations columns are the best. I'll try to give you my dollar's worth of return here

(1) the prospects:
(1a) Baez: yes, a keeper for at least one more year. I think this guy has a chance to be a very solid player
(1b) Williams: I'm not sure what to think of Jett. Part of me thinks that as a first round pick, he has to be good. I was high on him after they drafted him, but with the subsequent acquisitions of Gilbert, Benge and even Morabito, and Williams lost year in 2024, some of the shine has worn off. I wouldn't have been terribly torn had he been traded in the right trade (was thinking Guerrero a while ago, but not any more). I don't know if there is any trade now that I would include him in. I hate trading promising players for relief pitchers. If he remains in the Mets organization, he and Acuna will have to battle it out for starting second baseman. The other guys mentioned will be the outfielders.
(1c) Mauricio: Trade bait only. Unless Viento completely flops in the first two months and Mauricio is tearing up AAA, there is no room for Mauricio.
(1d) Baty: Unfortunately, ditto comments for Mauricio. I have always really liked this guy - sweet (but long) left handed swing and great minor league hitter, but a change of scenery is probably best at this point.
1e) Matt Allan: Ok .. not in your list, but I am rooting hard for this guy to resurface in discussions this year about potential 2026 Mets pitchers. Can we say Sproat-Tong-Allan now?? The guy has gone through too much before throwing many pitches not to want him to succeed now.


Remember1969 said...

I tried all this in one comment, but it told me it was too long, so Part 2 here:

(2) Dylan Covey: part of the depth they have built. I am fairly sure you will see his name in a 2025 NYM box score.

(3) As stated above, I agree with Ernest - what is the difference between Acuna and Williams? Last name? You just want Acuna to shine and create a brothers force.

(4) I think the pen is full - I believe I saw Hill is re-upping with the Yankees. They need long guys and have #6-7-8 starters in Megill-Canning-Blackburn in some order. Two of them will fill the last bullpen spots.

(5) Jesse Winker. Tom's favorite guy, and I tend to agree with him. If he can stay healthy, the best under the radar signing of the off-season. (I wrote comments yesterday that he is one of the 'whole greater than the sum of the parts' guys).

(6) Nimmo. Yeah, I don't get it either. Talk to Albert Pujols.

(7) Tyrone Taylor. I agree that they need a de-facto starter. I believe Taylor is that guy in centerfield. Siri will get a lot of time in left and center though.

(8 Benge. Like Williams before him, I am high on him at this point. I would really like to see them develop a true centerfielder from their system. Benge seems like the guy to hang that hat on. Push him through the system - Binghamton by August 2025.

(9) out of order, but they really need to institute a signing period of some type, although there are so many guys out there that the musical chairs is always going to be played right through spring training for the filler parts and injury replacements, but perhaps a signing period for players with dollars over $25M should be set. This could get complicated. Maybe what should happen is that players get more say into what they want to do than the agents just playing the system trying to squeeze that last penny. If Alonso had taken my advice last February, he wouldn't have been in this place and would have more money in the bank and more security without worrying about the damn process again soon.
 
(Last) Love the Seaver comment. Just pitch. Teach them how to pitch, not throw. Seaver (and almost every other great pitcher before 1990) was very successful with career K ratios below 9K/9 innings. Now you can't even get a job if your K rate isn't at least 10.5/9. My golf analogy is 'Drive for show, Putt for dough'. Throw 100+ for show, pitch into the 8th inning consistenly for dough.

Over and out . . . R69

Mack Ade said...

I too have no forecast for Mauricio, now that Pete is back on first. This leaves Vientos on third, Ronny's best position

Tom Brennan said...

Mack, nice comprehensive update. All our kiddies now have time to be really ready when they ultimately get the call up. For Baty, that might be 2030.

Baez seems to have a Cespedes bat without the Cespedes speed.

I wonder how the top 10 starters in 1970 would have fared in today's game, where close to twice the number of HRs get hit. They might just try to throw harder, too.

Remember1969 said...

Or the pitchers of the 70's would actually pitch to them to get them out. Bob Gibson adjust his mentality? I don't think so. Hitters today would be a little more scared. . .

JoeP said...

Sorry Guys, a little late to the table today. Just had surgery yesterday.

Mack, a lot to digest here...as always thank you for the info.
Jett Williams is the guy I have the highest hopes for. The only thing he has above Acuna is the 400 OBP. Perfect #2 hitter in front of Soto. Him in CH and Acuna at 2B. Trade McNeil if you get a chance.

Baty, I would have loved him to blossom, but Vientos beat you out. There really is no place for him.
Mauricio, DH after this year is perfect spot, unless he takes to 3B. Then move Vientos next year when Pete opts-out.

Winkler, not as high on him as some, but all the remarks I hear have changed my mind. Great lefty bat to have on the roster.

From what I read; Benge will be a better corner outfield.

I believe Taylor should get most AB's in CF. With Siri as late replacement. His hitting sucks. Taylor can move to LF to replace Nimmo or Soto in a blowout.

Rooting hard for that kid Allen. He would be a great surprise.

Tom Brennan said...

JoeP, rapid recovery. Need to be ready to by pitchers and catchers.

JoeP said...

Thanks Tom, feeling pretty good already. I've been approved for soft tossing...lol. Will definitely be ready for pitchers and catchers.

Tom Brennan said...

I heard the surgeon throws a cutter….ouch