Good morning…
Carlos Mendoza had his first press conference this week and there were
many interesting things he said that gave me a peek at what the Mets will look
like come opening day.
Seems Jonah Tong has
been working on a two-seamer this offseason. Frankly, pitchers can’t have
enough good pitches and anything new, velo wise, from this guy is exciting
news.
A.J. Minter (recovery from hip labrum surgery) isn't a lock to be ready
for Opening Day, but the Mets are optimistic he'll be there.
Ronny Mauricio won't appear in games until at least mid-March as he
continues a slow rehab from knee issues. No surprise here. Frankly, I’m
starting to wonder if Ronny is becoming Matt Allan with a bat.
Jose Butto will remain a long man reliever, which, IMO, is exactly
where he belongs in 2025.
Tylor Megill is stretching out to be a starter. Interesting. Looks like
the battle for SP5 is on, though I expect him to start off SP1 in Syracuse this
spring, doubling as the emergency starter a phone call away.
Jett Williams will get some reps in center field this spring. I’m excited
about this. I believe his future as a Met is out there and Gawd knows how they
need a true centerfielder.
Luisangel Acuña will get third base reps. Makes no sense to me. I assumed
that Baty would be the emergency fill-in for Mark Vientos.
Brett Baty will get reps at second and third. More nonsense. The Mets,
what with Jeff McNeil and
Acuna, have enough established second basemen.
I like Luis Robert and
have stated that a trade for him would be a good thing.
Then I looked a little deeper at his injury history:
2021 - hip
2022 - wrist
2023 - MCL
2024 - hip
He was also on the IL for Covid-19 and blurred vision/lightheadedness
Hard pass.
BaseballHistoryNut
There
were more Tommy John Surgeries amongst professional pitchers in 2023 than the
entire decade of the 1990’s
Pat
Ragazzo @ragazzoreport
It never
made sense for the Mets to sell-low on Jeff McNeil in
a trade this offseason given his versatility & floor value as a former
batting champ coming off a good 2nd half
I agree with this… on paper. Frankly, it’s too late in the
pre-season to put together a deal here that would benefit the Mets. McNeil is a
proven entity that just needs to understand his role in this new power plus
lineup, He and Brandon Nimmo do not need to hit home runs. They need to get on
base and let the big boys get up to bat. Trust me… both could wind up in the
top five for runs scored.
Codify @CodifyBaseball
2025
Predicted Order of Finish
(using
@FanDuel odds):
AL
East: NYY BAL BOS TB TOR
AL Central: MIN DET CLE KC CWS
AL
West: HOU SEA TEX LAA ATH
NL
East: ATL PHI NYM WSH MIA
NL
Central: CHC MIL CIN PIT STL
NL
West: LAD SD ARI SF COL
Michael
Baron @michaelgbaron
Dylan Covey - who was outrighted off the #Mets 40 man roster - has elected free
agency rather than an assignment to Syracuse
Daniel
Wexler @WexlerRules
JT Riddle has retired
A bit of
bookkeeping... newly signed C Cesar Acosta has
been assigned to DSL Mets Orange. Acosta, who hails from Macuto, Venezuela will
not turn 17 until July
2 more
2025's joining Acosta on DSL Mets Orange. IF Georwill
Rodriguez (17 in March) from Venezuela and Arturo
Sevilla RHP (turned 17 in November) from Mexico
Codify @CodifyBaseball
2025
Projected Wins (FanGraphs):
96
95
94
93 ATL
92
91
90
89
88
87 NYY
PHI NYM
Reed
Garrett Enthusiast @rgarrettsburner
Since Steve Cohen bought the New York Mets in November 2020,
they have spent $2,001,111,666 in free agency
Joe Schad
@schadjoe
2025
Offseason Spending
New York
Mets $1,007,300,000 source:
Spotrac
But let’s remember… Miami spends less on yearly salary than the
money they receive from the league in revenue sharing
Nutzy @Nutzypoo_ttv
The
average cost of 1 WAR in baseball is $8 Million.
The
Pirates have spent approximately $10 million this offseason and accumulated
-1.7 WAR of players.
How is it possible to be so bad at this.
Amazin
Avenue –
Alex Ramirez, OF
Any bounce back for Ramirez would be a welcomed sight. The once highly touted prospect hit the figurative wall as he struggled in 2024 with a full season in Binghamton. He slashed .210/.291/.299 in 123 games while only having 5 HR's to pair with 123 strikeouts, and 40 stolen bases. The stolen bases will play nicely, and he's got some pop to his game that shows up, but the strikeouts have been his biggest detriment. He's had over 100 strikeouts in each of his seasons, and while his approach seemed to improve in 2022 despite a total of 122 strikeouts, he reverted backwards in 2023 and 2024.
His swing allows for some raw power to show, as evidenced by his 11 HR's in 2022, but in 2024 the barrel of the bat didn't seem to find the ball. He's gone from one of the Mets best prospects to a side project to see if there's anything still there to help reach the potential he once had.
He's off the 40 man roster and
re-signed as a minor league free agent, but maybe that'll relieve a good amount
of pressure on him to reach his potential faster than he's comfortable with.
It's very easy to forget he's only 21 years old because he's been in the Mets
system for a good chunk of time, but he is still growing and developing. The
jury is still out on whether he's stuck at his ceiling or if he'll be able to
push through with less pressure for him to move fast.
Dom
Hamel, SP
Hamel was once one of the Mets top pitching prospects but he got crushed routinely once he reached Syracuse. Where he compiled a 3.25 and 3.85 ERA in 2022 and 2023, he was routed to the tune of a 6.79 ERA once he landed in Syracuse. He let up 23 HR's, and a .285 average against him, both were significantly worse than his stats from Binghamton. Can Hamel turn it around? Was his confidence just shaken? For a pitcher who was so steady and consistent in the lower levels, he clearly has something that works, but every time a new level is reached that means your stuff needs to continue with it.
Hamel didn't
need extra time to adjust to the lower levels, but it's possible he does with
Syracuse. If Hamel can bounce back in 2025, then we very well may see Hamel's
name in the majors within 2025 or 2026. It'll also help any trade value he has.
But with another rough year in AAA, Hamel will be in a precarious position
where rubber needs to meet the road.
MLB
Drafting
teams from the '25 Top 10 Prospects by Position lists
Jonathan Mayo:
Brandon Sproat, NYM (No. 9 on Top 10 RHP)
He’s No.
46 on the Top 100 list and I went with Sproat as my right-hander. But I was
torn because my other option was to flip those rankings and take Kevin McGonigle
as my shortstop and Rhett Lowder as my right-hander. I think you could probably
argue either way. But I’m pleased with what I ended up with.
What Mayo is saying here is that Sproat
is the top right handed starter in the minors. That’s big, folks. I know all of
you want him in Queens this season, but I really wish the current rotation
pitches well enough to let him marinate in Syracuse. I think Sproat is gonna be
a big one. I really do.
im
Koenigsberger @Jimfrombaseball
Yogi Berra on Warren Spahn -
"I
don't know if we're the oldest battery, but we're certainly the ugliest."
Yogi Berra to Whitey Ford during a scoreboard tribute
on Opening Day, to recently deceased Yankees:
"Boy,
Whitey, I hope I never see my name up there"
25 comments:
Mack, love your stuff today and just wanted to point out that Dylan Covey has signed in Atlanta.
While there’s nothing wrong in Baty standing at second base, I would rather see him taking flyballs.
Hamel should go to the bullpen and just use his best two pitches.
We need Nimmo to walk and McNeil to dink and dunk his way onto base for the big poppers.
Having a quagmire this morning. With the Padres signing Nick Pivetta last night, they now can trade Cease or King. Naturally, Mets fans are screaming for Cease. Well, ok but hold on. While I read reports of how much of the farm system the Mets should give up, I went back to the Glasnow trade which included a salary dump of Manual Margot with Galsnow.
This is from Sports Illustrated regarding the two players sent to Tampa:
“Pepiot, 26, has split his time in the past between the rotation and the bullpen. But if any org can figure out how to get the most out of his fastball-changeup pairing and learn how to maximize his impact? It’s probably the pitching-savvy Rays. (He’s also worked on developing a slider in the last two years.) Pepiot comes with a spotty injury history of his own—he missed a good chunk of last season with an oblique strain—but will likely see his first full season in the big leagues in 2024.
Deluca, meanwhile, looked capable in his first exposure to the majors last year. He adjusted decently well to big league pitching (a 97 OPS+) and played all three outfield spots. Deluca’s skill set is relatively similar to Margot’s: Both are contact hitters (with very little power to speak of) and effective defenders. That means Deluca should be able to replace much of what the Rays are losing by trading away Margot—at a fraction of the salary and with a much longer time horizon. The 25-year-old will not hit free agency until 2030.“
That’s the parameters I’m comfortable with; no one in the top ten, no generational talent bullshit. Based on this model, I say:
Megill or Butto (not both), Baty or Vargas (not both), and Marte (paid down, they’re broke). Plus, the Dodgers had a three day window to extend Glasnow which I don’t expect the Mets to get. No Sproat, Acuna, Williams, etc, for a rental that is no more an ace than Manaea or Senga is and had a mid 3’s ERA last year. I can live with this and I can walk away just as quickly.
Yogi was the best.
My position still is that minor league hitters need to do enough to learn the skills they need to succeed in the majors, and that's it. So...we knew Ronny could steal bases...he stole 83 bases in his career. So, he decided to try to steal a base in winter ball, tore his MCL, and damaged his career. Gilbert missed half the season last year because he did not come out of an essentially meaningless game in early April after he tweaked his hammy, then by staying in, really hurt it, screwing his 2024 season. Jett needed wrist surgery. Too much hustle diving head-first, possibly? I don't know. But the skill he needed to focus on was improving his hitting to be MLB caliber, which can be attained only by healthily playing. Get to the majors and then take off any restraints, because the games now count.
These guys have to be aware of Pete Alonso's situation. Pete did everything possible to get to his free agency as quickly as possible, really taking care of himself, and even then, his free agency age was a detriment to getting a huge contract. What if he reached free agency at age 32 rather than age 30?
If they miss time, it will slow their career down. And could, in the course of their careers, cost them many millions if they play long enough to reach free agency, because of increased age.
Agreed - and I do not think Stearns is stupid. Past GMs might have broke the bank for Cease. Stearns will only make a sensible deal.
Tong is exciting, as is Sproat. Hamel definitely needs to try to become Trevor May II, which was a good career for May. Ramirez? If he comes in spindly again, I will think he is not serious. He looked so slender last spring.
Good for him. Hopefully not bad for Mets
Correctomondo
Cease will cost you
Ballplayers will always play balz to the wall, thus, injuries
This is the last chance for Ramirez
Agreed, can't overpay for Cease as a rental. He is not a true ace, he would be slotted behind Senga and Manaea. The package Gus mentions is reasonable, but I don't think they would take Marte because they are looking to reduce payroll. Would not overpay for a rental.
To me the downfall of Nimmo is the HR. Once he started with the power his OBP has been in a steady decline. He would look so sweet hitting in the 2 hole with a .380+ OBP. in front of Soto.
A career 3.75 ERA starting pitcher who last year had a 3.47 ERA that has one year of control. His comps according to Baseball reference are Jack Flaherty, Rich Harden, Matt Garza, Sonny Gray. What do you want to give up?
I am curious why so many pitching prospects seem to stall in Syracuse. I don't think there is a huge jump in the hitting talent from AA to AAA. So what is it? The robo-umps?
I have very few untouchable prospects
One
Hands off Sproat
I said that the Mets can pay down Marte. Don’t forget, they are giving the usual “we want to compete” mantra. I actually think this package is closer to his value, and with Marte, they flip him in July for another prospect if they aren’t competing. They have a good team and keeping Cease helps them against the Dodgers.
Lots of different things from AA to AAA
balls
Strikezones
Robo umps
Forgot one
Plethora of ex major league hitters
Paul, for whatever reason, in AA and below they use a different baseball. The ball is smaller and has more grip, and that was to avoid the beanings that come in the low minors from the lack of pitchers’ control. In AAA, the ball becomes the regular MLB ball. The robo umps were fazed out in June and it became a challenge system which MLB will have next year. It’s the ball.
AAA uses major league baseballs, a new thing to graduating AA pitchers
That is a big mystery to me as well. They will have a new pitching coach up there this year - let's see what happens.
I am confused . . if the Padres are so damn money-tied, why would they sign Pivetta for more money than they are paying either Cease or King AND throwing away a draft pick and international signing money, why on earth would they now trade a pitcher that is better and cheaper than the one they just signed??? And somebody picked that team to finish 2nd in that division?
Thanks Mack! as usual, a lot of stuff here
(1) Tong is at the top of my prospect list. Why not try another pitch as long as it doesn't screw up any of the others he has.
(2) Danny Young may well get another opportunity.
(3) Mauricio to me is no longer a prospect. I can't see where he will end up.
(4) Butto should remain the #1 long man out of the pen.
(5) I think the battle is for SP6, as long as there are no injuries. I think Megill wins this battle but ultimately loses because he still has an option. Neither Canning nor Blackburn can be optioned.
(6) I don't have any strong opinions about Jett. Last year, I saw him as the heir-apparent to McNeil at second base. Now I think Acuna is ahead of him there. Maybe centerfield is the best place.
(7) Acuna taking reps at third doesn't make a ton of sense to me. They have to keep Vientos there until he shows he cannot handle it (or he regresses at the plate so much that he is not playable anywhere, which I do not see)
(8) I am coming to the belief that Baty can become a super-utility guy - the first lefty off the bench and have a glove that plays anywhere. I'd like to see him get a few reps at shortstop.
(9) No to Robert. See my past rantings and ramblings about him.
(10) McNeil-Nimmo. Totally agree with Mack on this. Both need to be high OBP guys do not hit many homeruns. Home runs by those two should be accidents. I also agree that they could be top five in runs scored, particularly if Nimmo hits second and McNeil fifth.
(11) I won't get into my predicted order of finish but there are a few things there that strike me as low-probability. I don't see the Padres finishing ahead of the D-Backs. Arizona led the majors in runs scored last year (118 more than the Mets) and they just added Burnes to an already decent rotation. (I also don't see the Mets that far behind the Braves, if at all)
(12) Alex Ramirez. Sad story. This adds to my belief that there are still deficiencies in the minor league hitting development system. There has got to be more emphasis on reducing the K rate from St. Lucie all the way up. Ramirez, Parada, Clifford.....
(13) Hamel. 2025 would seem to be his last chance.
R69, Pivetta is only making $1MM this year and like $13MM next year. Then salaries of $19MM the last two years. Pivetta should have taken the QO from the RedSox. What a stupid move to turn down $21MM for one season when you’ve never been good before in your life, and really wasn’t all that last year either.
I was so happy when Hamel was still on the board when the Mets drafted him
Maybe the pen
Post a Comment