Mets Mack Attack 1-14-9 - Part 2


MLB – NY Mets:

If Oliver Perez is signed, the Mets rotation will look like this:

Johan Santana, LHP, 16-7, 2.53, 206 K, 1.15 WHIP
John Maine, RHP, 10-8, 4.18 ERA, 122 K, 1.35 WHIP
Oliver Perez, LHP, 10-7, 4.22 ERA, 180 K, 1.40 WHIP
Mike Pelfrey, RHP, 13-11, 3.72, 110 K, 1.36 WHIP
Tim Redding, RHP, 10-11, 4.95 ERA, 120 K, 1.43 WHIP


In Perez, the Mets are chasing a pitcher with a higher ceiling and more scintillating stuff than Lowe, but also more frustration, too. When Lowe was Perez's age, 27, he'd put together just an 11-18 career record, not emerging as a star until 2002, when at age 29 he was 21-8 for Boston. That started a string of seven straight seasons of double-figure victories for Lowe, but over the last two years, Lowe was 26-25 for the Dodgers, hardly the sort of numbers that you can't let get away. Perez was 10-7 last year and 15-10 in 2007. Twice he has ranked in the top 10 in the National League in ERA and has been among the top 10 in strikeouts three times. He's also a lefty with a track record of success against the predominantly left-handed Phillies and who has pitched his best in big games. All of that makes him alluring enough to the Mets to soften the blow of losing out on Lowe. But it also ticks another name off the list of possible starters for a team in need of one. While Perez is next on the list of pitchers among Boras' clients, Minaya wasn't certain that the loss of Lowe would speed this process up. "It depends whom you're talking with," he said. "Scott does a very good job."


The temptation to give in Lowe's demands must have been enormous, but history shows that short-term gain usually leads to long-term pain. The Mets have been burned throughout their history by adding extra guaranteed years to free agent deals - Bobby Bonilla, Kevin Appier, Julio Franco, Scott Shoeneweis, Marlon Anderson and even Pedro Martinez all are on that sad list. Giving in to Derek Lowe's demands would've made headlines, but ultimately would've only added one more name to that Pantheon of Poor Decisions.


The Mets' gaze now likely falls on Oliver Perez to fill the final spot in the rotation, although I remain hopeful that Minaya makes a two-year, incentive-laden offer to Ben Sheets at some point.

Some people seem to think that the Yankees won’t be able to succeed with two young rookies in the rotation. (Chamberlain & Hughes) With Andy Pettitte’s chances of returning on the decline, people want the Yankees to go after some other player. One name that has been brought up is Pedro Martinez. There are two players I dislike more then anyone in baseball..and they are Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez. Have we all forgotten about Petey? This guy threw Don Zimmer to the ground and threatened to throw a bean ball at Jorge Posada. We all know that Pedro is not well liked in NY, as he played for the Yankees biggest rivals.


AAA – Buffalo:

Given a normal growth curve, Fernando Martinez should be an excellent player. But the shape that excellence will take is unclear to me. We should also keep in mind that not all growth curves are normal. It's easy to say that he's 10 years from his prime and will develop into a monster, but what if he's an early peaker and tops out his skills at age 23? Even that should still make him excellent, of course. My point is that there is so much we don't know yet about F-Mart. In an alternate universe the Mets kept him in rookie ball last year and he hit .350. In a case like that we'd say "he's very promising but we need to see him at higher levels" and no one would bat an eyelash at the caveat. In his case, due to the unusual way he's been handled, we have to say "he's very promising but we need to see what happens with another year under his belt."


A+ - Lucy:

James Fuller is a little like Roy Merritt on this list in that he’s a bullpen lefty off the Cyclones. However, Fuller’s superior, average MLB fastball lands him the higher ranking. Before the draft, Baseball America described Fuller as throwing, a “solid-average 88-91 mph fastball, fringy breaking ball and effective changeup.” 2008: Fulller missed just about all of July for the Brooklyn Cyclones, but was untouchable when he was on the hill. The Mets drafted Fuller in the 21st round of the 2008 draft after unearthing Dillon Gee in the 21st round in 2007. Twenty-one: good in the casinos, better on the Mets draft board.Dr. Pangloss Says: Fuller, who’s just 5’10” will fit nicely into the Mets bullpen in a few years. On the Flipside: The effort in his delivery could lead to injury problems that prevent Fuller from contributing consistently. Projected 2009 Start: St. Lucie bullpen


A – Gnats:

Eduardo Aldama earns his place here with something that looks like an MLB fastball from a thin frame. When I saw him in July, he was throwing his heater 89-94 mph, while sitting at 91. His command of the pitch is below MLB caliber. At age 19 in 2009, he is still projectable and will have a chance to iron out his delivery and potentially add a few ticks to his velocity as he fills out. His secondary offerings include a curveball from 74-78 that was mostly 76 and a changeup. He showed some feel for the pitch. 2008: Pay no attention to the ERA. In the GCL, Aldama struck out almost eight batters per nine innings and had a strikeout to walk ratio above three. Projected 2009 Start: Savannah, or XST with a move to Kingsport in June



I've made some changes to the WAR spreadsheet in the hopes of making it more accurate and easier to use. Download it by clicking here. Changes since the beta:

The option of using OBP and SLG instead of wOBA. Make sure they are park-adjusted, though. To use OBP/SLG instead, change the TRUE underneath "wOBA?" to FALSE to force the Hit calculation to use (1.75*OBP + SLG) / 3 to compute wOBA instead of using whatever's in the wOBA column. (The wOBA column will remain blank, though, except for the team totals row.)

New baselines for replacement-level team wins. I started with 48 wins per team (a .300 team), added two wins for NL teams (because they are worse, but compete against each other), subtracted two wins for AL teams (similar reason), subtracted 1 win from AL teams as an estimate of added production from DHs, and subtracted 1.5 wins from all teams as a rough estimate of the average number of wins created by leveraging relievers in a bullpen. The result is a 48.5 win baseline for NL teams and a 43.5 win baseline for AL teams.



Top 5 Fantasy Catchers:
1. Brian McCann-is a middle of the order hitter in the Braves lineup. He hit 23 HRs and 87 RBI is 2008 with an OPS near .900. Bill James Projection: 24-98-68-.301-.370-.525

2. Geovany Soto-the Cubs catcher was solid in his rookie year hitting 23 HR and 86 RBIs. He could be the #1 catcher in 2009. Bill James Projection: 23-89-71-.293-.370-.499

3. Russell Martin-doesn't have the power that Soto and McCann have, but could steal 20 bases for you. Torre should get him a capable backup so he can improve upon his terrible 2nd half. Bill James Projection: 15-79-91-17-.292-.390-.439

4. Bengie Molina-Molina hit in the middle of the Giants lineup in 2008, and flourished, leading the team with 95 RBI. He could drive in 90+ again for SF in 2009. Bill James Projection: 17-83-45-.281-.347-.439

5. Chris Iannetta-Iannetta lived up to his potential in 2008 with 18 HR and an OPS near .900. He could break the top 3 catchers in 2009.Bill James Projection: 21-79-71-.272-.382-.488


Mexican Pacific League Playoffs - Mochis 4, Hermosilla 3 - Mexican League vet Victor Bojorquez tied the game with an RBI triple and Jason Bourgeois (Brewers) polished off Mochis' comeback victory with his run-scoring single in the bottom of the ninth inning. The win evened up the semifinal series at 1-1. Despite a strong effort from Arizona's Edgar Gonzalez, who allowed two runs on seven hits over seven innings, he was left with a no-decision after Jon Adkins (Reds) failed to come through in the save opportunity.


Mack's Mets © 2012