The Mack Attack - 1-6-9

The Future of the Mets – In The Outfield


As comedian Chris Rock would put it, “can’t a brother draft a bat here.”

The Mets have had a horrible record of drafting potential sluggers in any of these three positions. The two potential major league players currently in the system, are Fernando Martinez (MMP #3) and Cesar Puello (MMP #5), and both were international signees, and not drafted.

Currently, the Mets have 30 outfielders on the minor league board, and only these two, at this point, look to make it some day. That’s pathetic.

At Buffalo, look for Jesus Feliciano, Caleb Stewart, F-Mart, Josh Peterson, and Carl Loadenthal. Also, there’s a good chance that a third prospect, Nick Evans (MMP # 9) will play the majority of the season here, which will push one of these names off the cliff. Peterson should stick, because he backs up at 1B and 3B.

For the B-Mets, I’ve got former MMP and current dud Brahiam Maldonado (another Mack favorite two years ago), Victor Mendez, and D.J. Wabick. Wabick has done nothing wrong as a Met yet, but he doesn’t project out as a prospect. Often injured Joe Holden will probably be the fourth here, though he might repeat in Lucy.

Speaking of Lucy, look for Brian Burgamy, Richard Pena, Darren Clark, and Carlos Guzman. Not much to talk about here, though Guzman showed flashes of goodness in 2008 for the Gnats.
The Sand Gnats have a log jam. I current have 8 dudes that could wind up here: Michael Hernandez, B.J. Hubbert, Raul Reyes, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Sean Ratliff, John Servido, Dan Stegall, and Gabriel Zavala. Some have to go, but look for both Nieuwenhuis and Ratliff to definitely find a slot.

Puello will most probably not be rushed and will start in Brooklyn, with Rafael Fernandez, Seth Williams, Justin Garber, and Pedro Zapata. That leaves Ruben Martinez, Mark McGonigle, and Javier Rodriquez in K-Port and Mathew McCarney in GCL. The wild cards here is Zapata and Zavala, who showed flashes when they played Latin ball.

In conclusion, this isn’t much for a big-market team. The Mets have done well internationally but are from hunger draft-wise. They had a wonderful chance to draft early in 2008 some big bats, and, in my opinion, really screwed up with the Ike Davis and Reece Havens picks. Hopefully, we’ll see heavy emphasis this year, draft-wise, on big bat outfielders out of major colleges that have hit well with wood bats in off-season leagues like Cape Cod.


MLB – NY Mets:


Fr. Ken Davidoff/Newsday: - The Mets, confident that they have no serious competition for Derek Lowe's services, do not intend to raise their three-year, $36-million offer to the righthander at this time, a person informed of the club's thinking told Newsday. Lowe ranks as the Mets' first choice to replace Oliver Perez in their starting rotation, but they also are negotiating with Perez himself and lefthander Randy Wolf. Agent Scott Boras represents both Lowe and Perez. Mets general manager Omar Minaya and his lieutenants also have internally discussed a plan to re-sign Pedro Martinez - assuming Martinez is amenable to a contract with a low base salary and heavy with incentives - and mix and match Martinez, whose last 2 1/2 seasons have been plagued by injury and ineffectiveness, with rookies Jon Niese and Bobby Parnell. But it seems more likely that the Mets will add one more major starting pitcher to their roster, given the realities of the free-agent market. Just as it worked out for the Mets with closers - they landed Francisco Rodriguez for a reasonable three-year, $37-million contract and acquired J.J. Putz in a trade - they appear to be running the industry when it comes to what's left of the starting pitchers. None of the trio of Lowe, Perez and Wolf figures to commit anywhere before checking with the Mets first.

Adam Rubin on left field: - In an ideal world, the Mets would spend to bring in a left fielder, but the Mets want to hold the line on payroll and are favoring a platoon right now. We'll see if Daniel Murphy can duplicate what he did in 131 at-bats last year over a full season, and whether Fernando Tatis can continue what was an NL Comeback Player of the Year season last year. If not, Nick Evans and Fernando Martinez should be sitting at Triple-A and Jeremy Reed will be on the Mets' roster as well. That's certainly an area to watch at the trading deadline.

Fr. Mets.com: - (as I reported last week…) Perhaps in an effort to reverse their fortunes of the last two Septembers, the Mets are working in reverse order this offseason. They addressed their ninth-inning needs Dec. 9 when they signed Francisco Rodriguez and put him in charge of happy recaps. A day later, they addressed their eighth inning, trading for J.J. Putz. So now, naturally, they are dealing with earlier innings and looking to add a pitcher to handle innings No. 1 through 7. The Mets have moved in reverse in terms of time, but not in terms of priority; the bullpen required the most renovation. However, their focus on relievers was not to suggest their need for a starting pitcher was something less than urgent. The Mets' rotation still has a vacancy that seemingly can best be addressed by making a purchase in the free-agent market. With some 5 1/2 weeks until the Spring Training camp opens, the Mets have a pretty good idea which pitcher will start on Opening Day, April 6 in Cincinnati, and which pitchers will follow -- in some sequence -- Johan Santana. But at this point, they appear quite uncertain of the identity of their No. 2 starter. It could be Mike Pelfrey or John Maine. But if the Mets had their druthers, they'd also have Derek Lowe on their roster. And that is where they stood -- at the intersections of wishing, hoping and willing -- as they got back to business this morning.

Regis Courtemanche also wonders why there has been no interest shown in Ben Sheets: - “His susceptibility to injury is probably why, most notably the shoulder problems he incurred in 2006. Nevertheless, Sheets is much better than any of the above mentioned alternatives since he allows fewer homers, earned runs, and walks. Plus, his five complete games were third in the majors behind Roy Halladay, and his former teammate, C.C. Sabathia. Worth a second look if you ask me.”

Fr. The Hardball Times: - One of the concerns some Mets fan had coming into 2008 was that Johan Santana was very prone to the long-ball in 2007. Luckily he bounced back in 2008, as we should have expected based on the unstable nature of HR/FB, but if we had these stats back then, we could have nearly wrote 2007's HR/FB off completely as bad luck. Santana was one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball in 2007 in terms of opposition HR/FB, seeing inflation of 11 percent. If we neutralize his HR/FB, it's still a little high at 12.9% but that is much closer to his career line and much easier to chalk up to random variation.



AA – B-Mets:


From Toby Hyde: - At the A-ball and advanced A-ball levels, the average catcher yielded 20 passed balls per 120 games. In 2008, in A+, Josh Thole had just 7 PB in 75 games, which normalizes to 13 PB in 120 games, a well below average rate. That’s good. On the other hand, in Savannah, Francisco Pena was charged with 28 pb in 9. for a normalized rate of 38 pb per 120 games.


A – Gnats:


Propect Prospect lists the top 15 3B prospects and has Jeffry Marte at #10: “ Put up .324/.393/.538 line in 163 GCL PA, but might be hard to match: .381 BABIP vs. 11% LD”


2010 Free Agents:


Right-handed relievers -

Joaquin Benoit (32) - Rafael Betancourt (35) - $5.4MM club option - Chad Bradford (35) - Doug Brocail (43) - $2.85MM club option with a $250K buyout - Octavio Dotel (36) - Kelvim Escobar (33) - Ryan Franklin (37) - $2.75MM club option with a $250K buyout - Kevin Gregg (32) - LaTroy Hawkins (37) - Clay Hensley (30) - Matt Herges (40) - Bob Howry (36) - Jorge Julio (31) - Masahide Kobayashi (36) - $3.25MM club option with a $250K buyout - Ryan Madson (29) - Gary Majewski (30) - Joe Nelson (35) - Duaner Sanchez (30) - Luis Vizcaino (35) - $4MM club option with a $500K buyout - David Weathers (40) - Yasuhiko Yabuta (37) - $4MM club option with a $500K buyout


Fantasy:


Fr. The Waiver Wire: - Mike Pelfrey has always been pretty good at keeping the ball on the ground, with a career average right around a 49% groundball rate. Unfortunately, until 2008, he wasn't very good at striking batters out or avoiding walking them. In 2008 his control took a step forward, as he walked 'only' 2.9 per nine innings. With a 5.0 K/9 rate, and his ability to avoid flyballs (and hence homeruns), that's good enough control to be effective. The question of course is whether that improvement was a true change in ability, or merely random variance. In general, when a player shows a large change in one of their component rate stats that is consistent with what would be expected at their age, I'm a believer that it's for real. So improving control in young players, or decreasing strikeout rates in old players, I generally believe are a lot more likely to be repeated than other changes. If that's the case, Pelfrey should be a solid (but not spectacular) member of the Mets rotation in 2009.


Alumni:


The St. Louis Cards have signed RP Royce Ring to a 1-year contract.


General Baseball News:


From Baseball Digest.com: - As many of you may know, Mark Healey of Gotham Baseball recently reached an agreement to design the web site component of Baseball Digest, the magazine. Personally, I didn’t know the magazine was still in existence, but I applaud Mark and wish him the best on his new venture. Unfortunately, the unexpected announcement of BaseballDigest.com has caused a little bit of a stir. Since Baseball Digest, the magazine, has an established trademark, any name with Baseball Digest in it is a violation of U.S. copyright law. We tried to find a way to work around this with Mark, but in the end, we just couldn’t find a solution that worked well for all of us involved. As a result, we will be changing both our name and domain to Baseball Digital Daily


There's no love lost between Alex Rodriguez and the Yankees' hometown rivals. While watching the Cleveland Cavaliers take on the Miami Heat at Miami's American Airlines Arena recently, he was introduced to June Azoulay, the wife of Madison Square Garden's official photographer, George Kalinsky. Rodriguez hugged her, but not before tapping her cap with his hand and saying, "It's a pleasure meeting you, despite the fact that you're wearing a Mets hat." A red-faced June said it was a pleasure, too