There does come a time that, if you follow a baseball team’s minor league development over the years, either as a hobby or as a professional sports writer, you can project out what’s coming down the pipe over the next couple of years. Now, I don’t mean wishful thinking; that goes for kids that write blogs.
No, there does come a time in a minor league baseball player’s short career that he has proven he’s going to get a shot in the Bigs, and there’s a good chance it will be with the team that originally signed him.
Mets wise, I update my top prospect list every month. Yes, it’s too often, but that’s me.
The Mets currently are extremely deep in quality minor league pitching talent, both as starters and relievers; however, most of them have a long way to go before we could come close to accurately projecting what year they make it Citibank. But believe me, somebody in the Mets organization does this every year just before the Hot Stove season begins, so them can remember not to load up with too many long term deals for old free agent fossils.
Currently, I have 46 players that can be tagged with some degree of being a prospect. Of thay 46, 27 are pitchers. This is a double statement of just how much pitching talent there is in the system, and how little in all the other eight positions.
Of the total 46 prospects, I list only 11 that seem almost guaranteed to play it big time, one of which (1B Nick Evans) already has. Six of them are pitchers.
My #2 prospect is SP Brad Holt, who debuted at Brooklyn last year. Holt should show his stuff this spring for Binghamton and some in the organization think he’ll be ready for the SP5 role in Queens by opening day, 2010. I’ll be a little conservative here, and pencil him in for the following year.
My #6 is Eric Beaulac, who ended the 2008 season with Savannah, which is exactly whee he will go again this March. Beaulac is easily three more years away, so let’s jot him down for 2012.
Number seven is relief pitcher Robert Carson, who will play 2009 as a 20-year old, in Brooklyn. Conservatively, let’s say 2013.
Number eight is also a 2013 projection, SP Jeurys Familia, who also is slotted to start this spring in Brooklyn.
Number ten has the last starter that I feel safe at this point in saying he’ll get his shot. 23-year old Dillon Gee will start this spring for Binghamton, but most probably end off in Buffalo. There’s a good chance he’ll fight it out for the SP5 job at ST in 2010.
Last on my hot list is #11, is current starter but soon to be converted relief pitcher Bobby Parnell. Most pundits are saying that Parnell is a lock for this springs bullpen.
So, if you add these names to the guys already in the rotation (and length of contract), what does it project out as:
2009: Santana, Maine, Pelfrey, Niese, ???
2010: Santana, Maine, Niese, Gee, ???
2011: Santana, Niese, Gee, Holt, ???
2012: Santana, Niese, Gee, Holt, Beaulac
2013: Santana, Niese, Gee, Holt, Beaulac, Familia
Observations:
If you do this exercise based on both John Maine and Mike Pelfrey not being signed someday to a long term contract, things look pretty thin, don’t they? Now you can see why some are reporting that the Mets may still sign two starters before camps open in five and a half weeks.
Projecting future ballplayers are fun, but it’s still mental masturbation. The reality is the Mets rotation has a long way to go in the next five years to be a successful one.
Mack
No comments:
Post a Comment