6/15/11

Michael Fulmer, Phil Humber, Terry Collins, Dillon Gee, Jose Reyes


.minorleagueball - 1S) Michael Fulmer, RHP, Oklahoma HS: Mid-90s fastball, good slider, needs better changeup but hardly a serious flaw at this point. Also has an Arkansas commitment


baseballamerica - White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper has worked his magic with (Phil) Humber this season as the 28-year-old suits up for his fourth organization. After entering the year with just 51 major league innings in six pro seasons, Humber has been one of Chicago's most effective starters in going 6-3, 2.95 through 12 starts (plus two relief outings). His stock had slipped so much that the Twins let him leave as a minor league free agent following the 2009 season—despite being one-quarter of the package received from the Mets for Johan Santana. Similarly, Miller helped the Tigers fetch Miguel Cabrera when the lefty still had his maximum trade value.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14246  - It takes some managers years to endure the trials that Terry Collins has in first season as the Mets' skipper. For starters, Collins is managing a team in the largest market in the country that still sought to secure a loan from Major League Baseball after owner Fred Wilpon lost a reported $700 million in his buddy Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme. In a recent feature story in the New Yorker, Wilpon had unflattering things to say about his team's three biggest stars, opining that third baseman David Wright "is not a superstar," shortstop Jose Reyes "would not get Carl Crawford money" in free agency, and right fielder Carlos Beltran was "60-70 percent of what he used to be." Collins has also been without his best starting pitcher all season, as left-hander Johan Santana’s rehab from last year's shoulder surgery continues. Santana suffered a setback over the weekend and likely won't be back next month, as the Mets had hoped.



http://bigbadbaseball.blogspot.com/2011/06/gee-this-cant-continueright.html  - Dillon Gee (Hong Kong crossover actor or porn star?) is 7-0. Now, no, he can't be Abb Vaughn (go back aways and you'll get the reference...) but he is one of the few genuinely bright lights in the New York Mets' rather soggy 2011. There is a lot of skepticism out there in the over-numerated world of baseball anal-y-sis concerning Dillon, however. It seems that he's living some kind of charmed life according to a series of "advanced metrics":



http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/6/14/2221852/comparing-2008-jose-reyes-to-2011  - Despite hitting only three home runs so far this season, Reyes has a wOBA of over .400 and a wOBA per swing of .223. Compare that to his .366 wOBA and .193 wOBA per swing in 2008. Looking at his production on a per swing basis allows us to filter out the value Reyes gets from stolen bases. Certainly, his 20 steals this year have helped mitigate his lack of home runs, but wOBA per swing isolates only value accrued by swinging the bat. From that perspective, Reyes has been better so far this year even without the long ball. The lack of home runs has largely been mitigated by triples. Based on 3-year averages in BABIP and HR/FB rates, Reyes should have roughly 15 2B, 5 3B, and 7 HR. Instead, Reyes has 19 2B, 11 3B, and 3 HR.*

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