Stephen Guilbert- Mock Draft 2013- Full First Round

Stephen Guilbert- Mock Draft 2013- Full First Round

Last year I was one of the few draft guys who got the first pick right. Houston surprised most (not me) by taking the best player with a bit of risk and saving a few million later spent on Lance McCullers. I figured they would. I missed on nearly every pick after that. Let’s see if I can do a bit better this year.

1.) Houston Astros- Jonathon Gray- RHP- Call me crazy, but I think that little stimulant positive drug test makes the Astros like him better. Why? Because they were going to pick him anyway and he just got cheaper. My guess is this failed drug test will cost him 500k and that’s 500k the Astros will put towards their second pick to grab some high school kid who’s fallen too far and convince him to join their youth movement.

2.) Cubs- Mark Appel- RHP. You have to. Appel could (and maybe should) go #1 but the Cubs need a blue chip starter in their system and there is no way Epstein and co. reach for a high school arm or bat when one of Appel or Gray are on the board. I guarantee you they take one of the two.

3.) Rockies- Braden Shipley- RHP. Here’s my first surprise/sleeper pick of this draft. Every draft expert has Kris Bryant here and for good reason. He would be a great pick and that bat in Coors would be frightening. The thing is, the Rockies have never been a team to develop a pitcher and they will pray one of Appel or Gray is still on the board. They won’t be but they want a pitcher. They’ve had scouts at Nevada’s games and Shipley’s stock is about as high as it has been. They reach a bit here but get a damn good pick.

4.) Twins- Kohl Stewart- HS RHP: For the second straight year, I have a tough time with the Twins pick. They always seem to get the best player available and I think they’ll see Stewart as that player. They’ll think about Moran, Bryant, and Meadows before pulling the trigger on the top high school arm in the draft.

5.) Indians- Kris Bryant- 3B: The Indians could not be happier to get Bryant here. While they will be thinking Shipley and will be sad to see him off the board, they will gladly scoop up the best position player in this year’s draft class.

6.) Marlins- Austin Meadows- OF: If there is one unpredictable team, it’s the Marlins. But they do draft well. There has been some late talk that Meadows is the pick here and I could see that being the case. I am crossing my fingers that Meadows falls but I see few scenarios in which that happens. 

   

7.) Red Sox- Clint Frazier- HS OF: So Jason Veritek means a lot to the Red Sox and his opinion is respected by the organization. Oh and he scouted Georgia high school prospects you say? And Clint Frazier is a Georgia high school top prospect? The Red Sox have been an excellent drafting team in years past and while they could look at Trey Ball at #7, I think they ultimately take one of Frazier or Meadows. Frazier is better and they’ll go with him here, much to my disappointment.

8.) Royals- Phil Bickford- HS RHP- I usually don’t follow Keith Law’s “last minute breaking draft news” but in this case, I buy it. Bickford has rocketed up draft boards in the past couple weeks. He lights up the guns with a fastball and has a filthy slider from what I have read and he is one of the youngest draft-eligible players on the entire board (the kid is still 17. Yes, he was born in the summer of ’95. I’m getting old). The Royals have always had an…interesting approach to drafting and I could totally see them reaching for a player they just fell in love with. Signs point to a pitcher and with Shipley and the “big two” off the board, they could reach for Stanek here or go with a wildcard. Just for fun I say wildcard.

9 9.) Pirates- Reese McGuire- HS C: Oh yea. This one I don’t even need to explain. It’s happening. Okay I’ll explain…he’s one of the best high school catching prospects of the past half decade. The kid does it all and the Pirates have little catching depth in their system to catch all those great arms. He should move quicker than most high school catchers and before long catch the likes of Cole and Taillon on championship Pittsburgh teams. Huntington knows what he’s doing and this is the easiest pick for me on this draft.

   10- Blue Jays- Colin Moran- 3B: I could so see them going with LHP Trey Ball here but Moran is too good to pass up. I highly doubt Moran will fall this far (most have him in the top three) but if Shipley goes early, Moran could slip as teams above the Jays fall in love with the high school bats at the top end of the class. Great steal here for our friends to the North.

   11- Mets- Well, this turned out to go differently than I thought. The best options are: D.J. Peterson, Dominic Smith, Hunter Renfroe, and Ryne Stanek. Because Bickford and Ball were taken early, that means an upper-elite guy in Meadows falls to the Mets and makes the decision tough. You have to go with him here. Mets take 3B/1B D.J. Peterson.

   12- Mariners- Ryne Stanek- RHP Okay this is far enough for Stanek to fall. He’s had great outings in playoff games and did nothing to plummet his stock from potential #1 to #12. Mariners get a steal here. Another player the Mets will look at.

   13- Padres- Dom Smith- HS 1B This is a reach here but a worthy one. Some have the Mets taking Smith at #11 and some crazies have said Colorado will take him at #3. I do not see that happening. Great player, great kid from all accounts and a good looking prospect for the Pads.

   14- Pirates- Trey Ball- HS LHP Neal Huntington. Best player available. Damn this system is stacked already and just getting better every year. That pitching. 

   15- Diamonbacks- J.P. Crawford- HS SS They have been tied to him for quite a while and though I think the D-Backs will look long and hard at pitching, they’d really like this kid in their system and won’t let another team get to him.

   16- Phillies- Hunter Renfroe- OF- A nice looking collegiate outfielder to join Dom Brown in the outfield in two years. He'll move quickly Renfroe has been tied to the Mets quite a bit this draft season as well. 

   17- White Sox- Chris Anderson- RHP- The Sox like collegiate pitchers and Anderson is a good fit here.

   18- Dodgers- Hunter Harvey- HS RHP- Filthy prep arm that the Dodgers will pray is still on the board. Prayers answered and a great blue chip prospect for a system that needs one.

   19- Cardinals- Sean Manaea- LHP- The Cardinals are known for this…take the guy that has all the talent but slips for certain reasons and watch him turn into an uber-prospect. Last year it was Michael Wacha. This year, Sean Manaea. Not fair.

   20- Tigers- Ian Clarkin- HS LHP- The first high school southpaw comes off the board and goes to a team that likes its high school pitchers.

   21- Rays- Nick Ciuffo- HS C- I love the way the Rays draft and they get the second best catcher on the board after McGuire. They could go prep arm as well here but I think if Ciuffo is on the board, they’ll grab him. Devin Williams could go here as well.

   22- Orioles- Austin Wilson- OF- I just have a feeling Wilson won’t fall as far as people think. The Orioles would be a likely team to grab him as his power would play even better at Camden and his athleticism is the sort of thing the Orioles like targeting (at least in recent years).

   23- Rangers- Devin Williams – HS RHP- I have a feeling this pick is wrong but I can’t peg the Rangers to any one player here. I can guarantee you, though, if some top prospect falls (like Ball, Harvey, Crawford et al., the Rangers will take them here. Jon Daniels did just that last year).

   24- Athletics- Josh Hart- HS OF- It worked last year with a raw, toolsy high schooler. After 300 years of consecutive college players taken, they go back to back with two high school athletes.

   25- Giants- Alex Gonzalez- RHP- I originally had Jon Crawford here as the sort of project that the Giants love but I see him slipping past the Giants and in to the supplemental first round. Giants get another great arm here and stick to their script of developing good pitchers. I could see Gonzalez and Manaea swapped as well. Cards might grab A-Gon before the Giants can get him.

   26- Yankees- Tim Anderson- HS SS- Falls to the Yankees and they salivate about Jeter’s replacement a few years down the road. Great pick here if he falls this far.

   27- Reds- Jon Denney- HS C- A lot of people have Denney here. I agree. He should last this long and the Reds like him. Cinci likes hard-throwing high school arms as well so if Harvey, Williams, or Clarkin fall, they could get a long look here as well.

   28- Cardinals- Billy McKinney- HS OF- Best player available. Always, St. Louis, always. Nice pick here for a good high school bat and athlete. Could go Jonathan Crawford here as well. 

   29- Rays- Marco Gonzales- LHP- Rays get a nice pick here and a pitcher who could go much higher than this. 

   30- Rangers- Travis Demeritte HS IF- This is a Jon Daniels player. So much so, he might not be available by pick 30 because he’s already been taken….by the Rangers and Jon Daniels seven picks ago. I see him on a path to Arlington either way.

   31- Braves- Aaron Judge- OF- This is far enough for the behemoth power outfielder to fall. Nice pick here. Judge comes with risk but he will be a fun player to watch and he has a lot of talent. He could go much much earlier if a team believes the power will develop.

   32- Yankees- Robert Kaminsky- HS LHP- Crosstown rivals get my favorite player of the draft. What an arm. He could be the best player in this draft and should get picked higher but will not. Absolute steal here.

   33- Yankees- Phillip Ervin- OF- Another one of my favorites. Athletic outfielder that does a bit of everything well.

   34- Royals- Clinton Hollon- HS RHP- High school righty with great stuff. Slipped a bit this spring but could find himself at the back end of the first round.

   35- Marlins- Jeremy Martinez- HS C- Once in the top handful of draft picks, the Marlins reach here for a catcher of the future and get a flawed, but talented, high school backstop. 

   36- D-Backs- Hunter Green- HS LHP- Nice high school lefty that the D-Backs will have their eye on.

   37- Orioles- Matt Crook- HS LHP- A lot of mocks have him in the mid-late first round and he will probably go higher than this.

   38- Reds- Kyle Serrato- HS RHP- I think I have Crook and Serrato this low is because they flew up draft boards late and sometimes, especially with high school pitchers, teams get scared away of the millions of dollars and high expectations of first-rounders and ultimately go the college route. Both are good enough and have enough traction to go higher and probably will but I would not be surprised to see them this low, either.

   39- Tigers- Ryan Eades- RHP- Let’s cap this off with a pitcher who had a great end to his season. Tigers get two nice pitchers for their system in this draft.

The Mets turn to pick second comes around in just a few more selections and there will be some good talent on the board. I hope the Mets give a good look to Dylan Covey and Justin Williams in later rounds. I value both quite a bit, despite poor seasons.

Thanks for reading. Let’s hope the Mets get a prospect that can be part of the winning teams Sandy is assembling for 2014 and years to come.

--Stephen Guilbert