3/7/14

MM's Top 25- #2 RHSP Rafael Quezada Montero


#2 RHSP Rafael Montero (LR: #4)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 0" Weight: 170 lb
Acquired: 2011 International Signing, Dominican Republic

2013: (AA/AAA) 12-7, 2.78 ERA, 2.0 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 1.101 WHIP
2012: (A/A+) 11-5, 2.36 ERA, 1.4 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.943 WHIP
2011: (DSL/R/SS-A) 5-4, 2.15 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 0.958 WHIP

Montero has had one of the most impressive rises in farm system I have seen in a long time. In only 3 years he's gone from pitching in the Dominican Summer Leagueto knocking on the door of the big league club. His quick movement through the system can be attributed to his impeccable control of a 93-95 mph fastball with an plus plus change-up and a average slider. He has never finished a season above a 2.0 BB/9 rate, has never finished below 8.0 K/9, and outside of Las Vegas, he's never even had a WHIP above 1. 

He has dominated every level of the minor league system up until now. The Pacific Coast League hitters gave him some difficulty at first though. As we have said with previous AAA pitchers on this list, the PCL is a very difficult place to pitch. The lack of humidity screws with the grip on your breaking pitches (thus reducing K/9 and increasing BB/9) and the thin air increases offense overall. Montero has suffered a bit from this, starting out with a 3.88 ERA at first. However he eventually settled in and pitched to an incredible 1.40 ERA in his 6 starts during the month of August.

Now that being said Montero will not be Rule 5 eligible until AFTER this season so the club is not inclined to use a 40 man roster spot on him just yet. While I believe Montero only has a ceiling of a #3 pitcher he is surely someone I can see slotting into the Mets rotation as a #5 guy right now. Word out of camp so far this is season is that while Montero is considered a "long-shot" to break camp with the team, the front office is giving him a legitimate chance to do so. It'll take huge flops by Matzusaka, Lannan, and Mejia, but Montero can at least position himself to be a late June call-up to the big league club. 

Anticipated Assignment: (AAA) Las Vegas starting rotation.
Ceiling: Mid Rotation MLB Starter
Floor: Back-End Rotation MLB Starter

5 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Great summary, Chris, and I am happy you noted his awesome progression late in the AAA season last year.

My only disagreement is I would peg him as a #2 starter (high end) to a #4 starter (low end). I think he is too good to slot him at a #3 / #5.

On this team, though, this hopeful high end #2 may still turn out to be a # 5 in 2 years, falling in behind Thor, Harvey, Wheeler, and Matz. Still only a potential starting 5, but what a potential rotation that may turn out to be.

Mack Ade said...

How would you like to be this talented and know you are never going to be listed as the #1 prospect in the organization?

Anonymous said...

@Tom

THe only reason i capped him at a #3 starter is because his breaking pitch (slider) is only an average pitch.

Mack Ade said...

Re: TC's mouth -

Yes, I CAN defend the comments. It's Spring Training, there's very little to talk about, and the media keep asking the same tired questions. If Terry wants to shake things up a bit and give them other things to talk about (something Casey was a master at), what's the harm?

I judge ACTIONS more than words. And there are words he or any other mgr gives to his players, and words he gives the media. When those words translate to actions, he's fair game for debate. Until then, let's enjoy the moment and have fun speculating.

Bill Metsiac

Tom Brennan said...

Hey Chris - hear you on the average breaking ball - still, this guy's dogged and consistent way to have almost nothing but quality starts his whole career, despite his accelerated ascent, and his superior mechancs tell me he will show us he is more than the sum of the parts, and hence my feeling he'll ultimately out-perform expectations