1/10/19

Mike Freire - Fleeting Thoughts


Good Morning, Mets fans!


As I put "pen to paper" (or maybe just fingers to keyboard) on this fine Florida morning, it dawned on me that we are not that far away from the start of the 2019 Major League Baseball season. In approximately six weeks, most teams will begin to have "Pitchers and Catchers" report to their respective Spring Training sites for the start of Spring Training. 

They will be followed by position players and then "star players" shortly thereafter (unless a random player has a visa issue which means they will report well after the last group).

Granted, Spring Training is probably longer then it should be but it is basically the start of the season.  Here in my neck of the woods, I am surrounded by the Blue Jays (Dunedin), the Phillies (Clearwater) and the Yankees (Tampa) so Spring Training is a pretty big deal around here.  Sadly, it is a bigger deal then the "home town" Rays, but that is a different story for a different day.

​January also brings us a bit closer to what the 2019 version of our favorite ball club will look like, which is more interesting then usual with a new General Manager at the helm.

So, enough babbling already right?


1.  As a quick reminder, I think that a team's roster should be constructed as follows;

Five Starting Pitchers

Seven Relievers (includes one or two long relievers and at least one closer)

Starting Infield and Outfield (eight players)

Bench Players (five in this configuration)

***Obviously, the starters and relievers should be a collection of left and right handed players for match up purposes and depth.  Your bench should have back up options behind the plate, in the infield (corner and middle) and the outfield.

With the flurry of recent movement (hey, at least BVW isn't boring), where does that leave us as we move into February? In my humble opinion, there are still quite a few positions that will be determined in Spring Training, but there are still several positions that are "open", so to speak.

Left Handed Reliever (set up type)

Middle Infielder (bench and spot starts)

5th Outfielder (bench and spot starts/pinch runner/defensive replacement)

***Some of the other positions may change from occupied to vacant, depending on the rest of the moves this off season. 

For example, Juan Lagares is penciled in as the CF'er for now, but if he is traded then it opens up CF. Or, maybe someone like Todd Frazier gets traded and you slide JD Davis into that spot (third base) which creates a vacancy for a corner infielder type. Plus, don't forget that Peter Alonso will factor into things once the "service time shenanigans" have been properly handled.

So, barring any unforeseen "big" moves, the roster may be getting close to what it will look like for the start of the season (good, bad or otherwise).


2.  It is pretty easy to sit back and use "20-20 hindsight" to evaluate previous player transactions or managerial decisions. Quite of bit of that has taken place of late when it comes to discussing the former regime's performance. BUT, it is really hard to look back at the decision to sign Yoenis Cespedes to his current four year contract in November of 2016 and think that it was a wise decision. 

Yes, YC is a formidable hitter and a solid left fielder, but that is WHEN is his healthy and able to actually play in games. In seven years of service time, YC has played in 826 games or an average of 118 games per year. 

Since there are 162 games in a regular season, that averages out to roughly 72% of the time OR 28% of the games that he has missed. Worse yet, he has only played in a full season twice in the seven year span, so is it really that surprising that he has missed as much time has he has? 

Fast forward to this year and it seems that his dual heel surgery will render him useless for the entire season, if Omar Minaya is to be believed.  I am not about to bust out voodoo dolls and garlic necklaces but is certainly seems like this team is a bit "snake bit" when you see how the Met careers of David Wright and now Yoenis Cespedes have turned out after inking big dollar contracts.

It would be fair to ask why didn't he get the surgeries done sooner, I suppose.  But, what's done is done and it seems that the team will need to move on without him. I would like to see him get healthy for 2020 and have BVW deal him to an AL club so he can DH which will likely be his natural position as he gets older and less mobile.


3.  I am not sure that I understand the "teeth gnashing" that is going on in some circles over the recent deals that were made this past weekend.  Most of the outgoing players were either "role players" or younger prospects (below AA) that may or may not pan out. 

Taking a line from Mack, you really don't know what you have with a prospect until they reach and/or exceed AA.  Furthermore, most of the prospects obtained in the listed deals are above the AA level and are much closer to helping the back end of the roster (bullpen and/or bench), which was sorely neglected in the recent past.  Look at the Red Sox roster and tell me that they didn't rely heavily on their quality depth last year.

I don't see anyone on the list of outgoing prospects that will "come back to bite us" in the long term and I think the incoming JD Davis could be a "diamond in the rough".  Don't be surprised if he ends up being a contender for the starting third base job as soon as this coming season.  

His major league numbers (small sample size) were rather pedestrian, but he was a MONSTER in AAA and could be the same for the Mets.

Since I may have gotten a bit wordy (verbose?), I will cap this edition at three entries.

Stay safe!


8 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

I have a hunch JD Davis will be a pleasant surprise with the Mets this year - which the traded Adolph, Manea, and Sanchez won't be - none of those 3 should be ready to have a major league impact before 2021, I'd think.

As we enter the cold week ahead in New York, I find myself waking up muttering "Pitchers and Catchers, Pitchers and Catchers".

Somewhere, Cespedes is smoking a Cuban cigar. He can afford a lot of them. He's played just 119 games in this 4 year contract so far, and could end the year # 3 with the same number. Nice getting paid!

Reese Kaplan said...

Suppose I had a player who in AAA hit .330, hit 16 HRs and drove in 76 in just 457 ABs...you'd think he was on a clear path to major league success. Well, he may turn out to be the Mets' starter at 1B for 3-4 weeks, but otherwise Dom Smith has become an afterthought. Success at the AA or AAA levels is not necessarily indicative of what will happen in the majors. Ask Gavin Cecchini while you're at it. Or ask Seth Lugo who was pretty ordinary in the minors...

Mack Ade said...

Good Morning Mike -

Nice post... you fleet well...

One addition to my thoughts about really not knowing what you have until players exceed the AA level...

In the past while we played in Las Vegas, we couldn't even count on players at the AAA level. How many players came up with high batting averages that turned out to be duds in Queens?

And I don't even want to talk about ERAs.

Now, with Syracuse as out AAA franchise we can properly evaluate players.

BVW's goals seem to be obvious.

1. work within the budget given him

2, stock Queens with vets that can get them to the playoffs in 2019

3. stock Syracuse with experienced vets that can step in the next day after a phone call.

4. utilize his below AA level prospects to get the players he needs

So far, in my opinion, he is on target

Reese Kaplan said...

Good point, Mack. I remember the offensive exploits in AAA of folks like Andrew Brown, Eric Campbell and others who were crushing it in the friendly PCL only to crash and burn at the big league level.

Jack Flynn said...

Mike - I agree with your perspective on pitching staff construction. Personally, I think the only pitcher routinely limited to one inning of work should be the closer, and even then a manager shouldn't hesitate to bring in a closer if a set-up man gets in trouble in the eighth.

I was playing around with a projected 25-man roster yesterday myself and saw the same position player openings as you did, but I see as many as three open bullpen spots. I think Diaz, Familia, Lugo and Gsellman are the only locks. Zamora probably has a good shot as the second lefty, which of course necessitates BVW to bring in the first lefty. I won't be the slightest bit of surprised if either Jerry Blevins or Oliver Perez (!) is offered a one-year deal.

bgreg98180 said...

Mack

I think your point about Syracuse providing a much better AAA home than Las Vegas is very important.

It can be argued, even with decisions like bringing Cuddyer to the Mets, that there were 2 most negatively impactful actions of the Mets Alderson era.

1) the nomadic nature of the Mets AAA team since it left Norfolk

2) the move of the Mets radio station from WFAN

Tom Brennan said...

Jack, I agree on Zamora - he has had a very short, though fine, cameo - he needs to prove he can be a REAL pen arm over a full season in 2019.

We really could use one or two more lefties in the pen OF QUALITY. We need to avoid "wishful thinking" wherever possible to have a winning team in 2019.

Mike Freire said...

Looks like we inked Luis Avilan to a minor league deal with an invite to ST........solid pick up and likely one of the lefties
we have been asking for.

Oh and good call Reese......he picked that one out a few days prior.