1/16/19

Reese Kaplan -- A Lineup for Offense or Defense?



When the news broke that the NY Jets decided to buck convention and go after an offensive-oriented coach after many failed years of defensive leaders, there was quite a bit of debate as to whether or not that was a good thing.  The Mets are at a similar crossroads, but having come about it from another direction, first hiring pitching guru Mickey Callaway to lead their team and now facing similar questions about which is of greater importance, offense or defense.

Take, for example, the flirtation with the Detroit Tigers over left fielder Nick Castellanos.  While in an ideal world the Mets would find a true centerfielder with a potent bat, choosing someone like Castellanos would be the polar opposite direction.  A Wilmer-Flores like player who was shuffled around the diamond in the hopes of hiding his glove, Castellanos put together a 2.9 WAR season with a .298 batting average, 23 HRs and 89 RBIs.  So the question is where is the tipping point where someone’s offense outweighs their defensive shortcomings?

During the Mike Piazza era many were so focused on the slugger’s inability to throw out baserunners that they tried unsuccessfully to move him to 1st base in order to keep his bat in the lineup but to minimize the damage he would do while wearing a glove.  While no one would argue his offensive skill level – after all the man is in the Hall of Fame – but again the question arises about how much offense can overcome questionable defense?

The Mets are now in that same situation again through the acquisition of a number of players whose bats are their primary calling card – Robinson Cano, Jed Lowrie, Wilson Ramos – and others who return with offense being their raison d’etre – Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo come to mind.

Some players like Todd Frazier and Amed Rosario show flashes of enough defense that they are a more balanced package. 

Then there are the guys whose gloves are their reason for being in the big leagues – Juan Lagares and Keon Broxton.

So what is the best approach for the Mets to take?  Do you go all offense and hope that the likes of Peter Alonso at 1B, Robinson Cano at 2B, Amed Rosario at SS and Jed Lowrie at 3B will produce enough runs to overcome the lack of range and defensive miscues?  What about the outfield?  Do you go all offense and play some combination of Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil?

Now the defensive voters would look at the game very differently.  They’d like to see Dominic Smith at 1B, both Broxton and Lagares in the OF and a tough call explaining to Mssrs. Cano and Lowrie why Todd Frazier has to pay.  Or you could go even more radical and insert the likes of Luis Guillorme at one of the infield positions. 

Now if you polled the pitchers, would they prefer defense or run support?  I think if you started off with Jacob deGrom the answer would be most definitely in the run scoring column.  Yet there are others who would probably prefer to know that balls hit on the ground or up the gap in the outfield will be handled with aplomb.

So how do you strike a balance between scoring and saving runs?  Should you?  Conventional wisdom says you need defensive strength up the middle.  Right now with Wilson Ramos, Amed Rosario and Robinson Cano you are 75% of the way there.  The question is can the Mets afford to play the questionable bats of Lagares or Broxton in order to achieve this objective?

Personally, I think neither Michael Conforto nor Brandon Nimmo are going to resemble Todd Hundley in the outfield and you could withstand one of them getting the number 8 assignment on a regular basis if it meant getting another solid bat in the outfield.  I’m all for the Lowrie/Alonso corners with Todd Frazier either off the bench or helping try to recapture what he once had on another roster.  How nice would it be for the pitchers to know they have at least a 3-run margin of error and not think that a 1-0 lead might be insurmountable.

What do you think?

8 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

I take offense with your article. Kidding aside, give me offense or give me death, isn't that what Sir Patrick Henry said some years back?

One reason defense is less important than in the past: Mets pitchers fan about 3 more guys per game than they did years ago. Three less balls to field.

Another? Guys steal a lot less than in years past.

Offense can be contagious - so let's have a hitting party in 2019.

Personally, I'd like to see the Mets score 100 more runs than last year's 676. That would solve a lot of win/loss concerns.

Teams will face the Mets thinking, "wow, those starters...and Familia and Diaz in the pen...AND they can score in bunches." And come in worried.

Mack Ade said...

Morning Reese -

IMO...

1. We have plenty of offense now. And it will only increase when Cespedes comes back.

2. No to Nick Castellanos. He plays outfield (and third) like he is trying to stab the ball with a fork.

3. Did you see those jeepers peepers on your new Jets coach?

4. If Lagares is truly healthy and can return to the abandoned way he plays center (he knows no other way), I would start him every day in CF to add some dWar to this lineup.

5. I would polish off the off-season with another mid reliever and a posible replacement for Vargas at SP5

bill metsiac said...

I'm with Mack. A run saved is as good as one scored. I love offense but I'd rather win 2-1 than lose 6-5. A great Lag catch with bases loaded and 2 out is worth more than 3 solo HRs. And solid D shortens innings, keeping our pitchers fresh.

As for the pitching additions, adding a SP (I like Gio G) enables Vargas to move to the long man/spot starter role. Last year, particularly in the first half Vargas did fine in the first 5 innings, then ran out of gas. That smells like "move him to the pen" to me, as well as keeping him as the #6 SP as needed.

Anonymous said...

Morning
Good pitching beats good offense
So if the teams strength is pitching shouldn't they have better defense?

Having Vargas as a 5th starter doesn't bother me much.not too many teams have a decent 5th starter!

Saying that id like to see a piggyback with Vargas starts,kinda like bullpening except he doesn't only pitch 1 inning.

Chances are for a home start Vargas can pitch 3 innings before his turn at bat. Pinch hit for him then let anyone from gsellman-Lugo-oswalt pitch the next 3 innings. Road games he'll probably only get 2 innings


Tom Brennan said...

Bill, good point on 5 innings for Vargas, so shift him out of rotation if a suitable replacement (a Gio) can be had.

Mack, I prefer Juan Lagares as a mostly-against-lefties CF and late inning D replacement. Unless the Mets are trading him, McNeil, the guy who hit .329 and helped catalyze their late season surge (what was it, 37-26?), needs to play a lot - unless he proves 2018 was a fluke.

The only way, after Cano and Lowrie, seems to be a lot of OF time for McNeil. He has above average speed and played a fair amount of OF in college. I am sure he sees the writing on the wall and has been getting ready to play outfield again in 2019.

Mack Ade said...

Tom

I share your Jeff-love but the reality is haing Cano Rosario Frazier and Lowrie will prevent him major bats in 2019

And... the Mets are not going to begin teaching an infielder how to play outfield during the regular season

Mike Freire said...

Good question and my immediate reaction is that the team could actually do both? A by product of the depth that BVW has built, IMO.

A deep roster with multiple options is much more likely to be successful then a roster with a few stars and a bunch of trub at the bottom.

Perhaps you favor offense and hold your defensive players back as bench depth and/or late inning replacements? Or, if you have a marquee pitching match up, maybe you start your defensive stalwarts to give your pitcher the best chance at winning a low scoring ball game?

I am generally a run suppression type, but you have to score, too. The 2019 roster seems to have both, which is different.

Tom Brennan said...

Yep, Mike