1/15/19

Jack Flynn - Jed Lowrie




Brodie Van Wagenen moves quickly.

Just when you think you have a bead on what the Mets are going to look like in 2019, the new Mets general manager zigs when you thought he was going to zag.

The latest misdirection came on Thursday, when word broke that the Mets were signing infielder Jed Lowrie to a two-deal worth $20 million. It was a signing that initially left many – including yours truly – scratching their heads.

Lowrie’s best position is second base. But didn’t the Mets just trade for Robinson Cano, a second baseman with a huge financial commitment, earlier in the offseason?

Didn’t the Cano trade block Jeff McNeil, an exciting young infielder who Mets fans assumed would be starting at second base in 2019? Isn’t Lowrie going to further bury McNeil on the depth chart?

Lowrie will be 35 on Opening Day. Aren’t mid-30s free agents out of style, as general managers shift their focus to roster building based not what’s already on the back of a baseball card, but based on what might be there one day?

The answer, to all of these questions, is yes.

That, then, begs another question – what is BVW thinking?

Last week, the theme of the Keon Broxton-JD Davis acquisitions was adding roster depth by identifying good players who were blocked in other organizations. This week, signing Lowrie is about adding depth by acquiring an undervalued asset.

We are nearly 20 years into the new millennium, and free agent acquisition seems to be taking its cues from the movie Logan’s Run. A free agent over the age of 35 is, for the most part, destined for baseball’s version of Carousel. (Note: I know that one renewed at Carousel at the age of 30 in the movie, not at the age of 35. Allow me some editorial freedom here.)

Van Wagenen was able to sign his former client at such a reduced price because of the bias against mid-30 free agents seeping into the consciousness of other general managers. In Lowrie, we are talking about a middle infielder who has averaged 155 games over the last two seasons, with an OPS+ of 120 in each campaign. How many switch hitting second baseman have been as durable and as productive as Lowrie has over the last two seasons?

Lowrie comes to the Mets on a club-friendly deal not because he is a bounce-back candidate, as has been the fashion for Mets free-agent signings in recent years. He comes to the Mets on a club-friendly deal because the rest of the league spent more time looking at his age than Van Wagenen did looking at his statistics.

Lowrie can still play three infield positions – two of them competently. He’s likely to feature as the backup shortstop for the Mets while playing more regularly at third base and second base, but he’s unlikely to play more than once every other week at short.

Ultimately, Lowrie provides added depth to a team that had taken a “wing and a prayer” approach to player health for the better part of a decade now. Mets fans aren’t used to seeing five legitimate major league players competing for three positions. Given the psychological beatings we’ve taken over the course of our lives, we can almost be forgiven for being confused and upset by such routine competence.

Lowrie may be coming off the best two offensive seasons of his career, but he has indeed reached an age where all but the very best players begin a slow fade. Cano is still performing at a high level as well, but he too has reached the point where he can no longer reasonably be expected to maintain the same elite production – especially if he’s going to be asked to play 160 games a year.

And that’s the point. Before this signing, the Mets needed to start Cano at second base 155-160 times if they were going to compete for a playoff spot. Now, they can dial that number back to something like 120-125 times, and feel secure knowing that an above-average major league player can start the other 35-40 games.

“But wait!” the bruised and beaten Mets fan exclaims, scarred by years of magical thinking and ownership incompetence. “Jeff McNeil was going to play 155-160 games there before we got Cano, and he’s an above average major leaguer! He could’ve started the other 35-40 games instead of Lowrie!”

Here’s the problem with that. Jeff McNeil is not yet an above average major leaguer.

Sure, McNeil was terrific in 63 games last season, as the Mets limped home to a 77-85 record. That does not mean he was going to be terrific this season. Relying on the Jeff McNeils of the world to maintain a 60-game stretch of brilliance over a full season, without having any reasonable Plan B as a fallback, is emblematic of the Little Jeffy Wilpon Theory of Roster Construction. That type of junk science belongs in the proverbial trashcan.

The question of blocking McNeil from regular playing time entirely is a legitimate one, and manager Mickey Callaway is going to have to be creative with everyday lineup construction and position assignment. There is already a path to 65 starts for McNeil even with the Mets retaining Todd Frazier, with room for more based on injuries or ineffectiveness.

Let’s start at second base. Cano is good for 125 games there, with Lowrie getting the other 35. (Although there are 162 games in the season, it’s easier to use a base of 160 for estimating purposes.) The Mets should be looking to start Lowrie 130 to 135 times across three positions, so in this exercise let’s get the new guy his games before we get to McNeil.

Amed Rosario is hopefully going to start 150 times in 2019, so we can get Lowrie another 10 as the backup shortstop. All of the pearl clutching about Lowrie no longer being able to man the shortstop position credibly is losing sight of the fact that he’s very unlikely to get more than 100 innings there. The 2019 season does not hang in the balance of the 100 innings that Jed Lowrie stands at shortstop. If Rosario is injured for any length of time, the Mets will surely need to employ a glove-first minor league shortstop to replace him.

For us to reach his magic number, Lowrie would need to start 85 to 90 games at third base. That leaves 70 to 75 games for McNeil to split with Frazier the hot corner – and more if he outplays a veteran on a one-year deal whose career offensive numbers are in a freefall.

All of this is predicated on Cano, Lowrie and Frazier being healthy for a full season – a longshot for three guys in their mid-30s. It is also predicated on McNeil continuing to earn regular playing time, which certainly isn’t a guarantee either.

The best thing about it is that there’s room for all four infielders to get more playing time if any one of them has a significant injury that puts them on the shelf for a month or longer. Would you have preferred that additional playing time go to Jose Reyes or a nondescript middle infielder who ideally belongs in Syracuse?

We haven’t even touched the first base question yet. There are a lot of Mets fans who assume that Peter Alonso is going to cruise to the Rookie of the Year Award, smack 35 home runs and bat .300 with passable defense. But again, that’s another application of the Little Jeffy Wilpon Theory.

Alonso has just 300 plate appearances at the Triple-A level in his young career. The pitchers in The Show are better than those in the Pacific Coast League, and the ball doesn’t carry through the air of major league ballparks the same way it does in the PCL deserts. Mets fans building projected rosters on Excel spreadsheets should be planning for regression, not immediate superstardom.

Alonso has the talent to be the next Rookie of the Year. He is probably going to be the starting first baseman by the time 2019 ends. But there is always a possibility that he stumbles out of the gate, and it may take him time – maybe even a full season – to really find his footing.

The Lowrie signing helps mitigate the effect of that as well. If Alonso struggles, Lowrie can play more third base. Frazier and McNeil can play more first base, as Alonso sits next to veterans on the bench who are going to ease his transition into the major leagues. Even Cano can play some games at first, which he began doing in Seattle last year as a concession to Dee Gordon and/or to Father Time.

Now, is Lowrie going to be the final significant acquisition of the offseason? The national baseball writers seem to think so, and the Mets payroll projects to be north of $155 million barring salary dumps involving Frazier, Juan Lagares or Jason Vargas.

But Brodie Van Wagenen keeps zigging, when everyone else expects him to be zagging.

11 comments:

Mack Ade said...

I repeat what I said yesterday.

I root for Clemson football

We have 9... 9 4* and 5* WR on the team being sent in and out for the 3 available positions to be filled. There is always fresh legs in the lineup and less or no injuries.

For the same reason You cant have enough top tier infielders on this team.

Tom Brennan said...

Hi Jack,

Mack is right (when is he not?)

I like the Lowrie signing - Jeff McNeil was AMAZING last season, but is still not a fully proven commodity. He will have to prove 2018 was no fluke and earn his 2019 playing time...I hope he earns a whole lot of it, too.

If this team was expected to win 70 games, McNeil would have gotten in 150 games. Unless there is a slew of injuries, he won't play 150 games for this contending Mets team.

Brodie can keep on zigging and zagging - Sandy was straight ahead in the 20 MPH school zone.

Lowrie is a pro who did real well last year - the hope for me is he can give them one really good year, and one decent one.

Reese Kaplan said...

Unless they are serious about McNeil getting reps in the OF, I think he's a goner in a trade, selling high.

Mike Freire said...

His signing is a good thing, as you pointed out.

At worst, he is quality depth which was lacking last year......at best we have a nice rotation in the infield and a much stronger lineup in 2019.

Lowrie > Frazier, IMO.

Plus, there will be a few extra starts open when we need to fill the DH role during Inter League road games.

Jack Flynn said...

I agree with Reese. McNeil is the perfect sell-high candidate. Six years of control during the peak part of the aging curve, plays multiple infield positions, has nothing left to prove in minors, just needs a place to play. I could see him fetching a very good reliever to further fortify the bullpen.

Lowrie at third, Cano at second, Rosario at short as primary starters. Lowrie serves as the middle infield backup, with Frazier and maybe JD Davis as corner infield backups, (Davis also backing up at corner outfield positions). That leaves the door open for Alonso or Smith to win the first base job outright, with room for Frazier and Cano to get starts there as well. A good amount of playing time for everyone.

I expect BVW to sign a veteran SS (Alcides Escobar?) to a minor league deal as injury insurance.

Mack Ade said...

don't we have that backup shortstop in Syracuse?

He was the 4th overall pick in the 2010 draft

He's 29 years old

And he hit .304 in 270-AB for Las Vegas last season

Christian Colon

Tom Brennan said...

Mack, here's the match on Christian Colon:

.304 in Vegas

minus 75 points to adjust to majors

minus 50 points to equalize for Citifield

Projected Citifield average .179 LOL

Ty Cobb couldn't hit in Citifield

Mack Ade said...

Tom -

All your kidding aside, IMO he is still the real deal

Tom Brennan said...

Mack, I hope Colon gets a shot, all kidding aside.

Anonymous said...

On McNeil and Things Apparent (or not)

I completely disagree with the notion of trading Jeff McNeil. Here's why actually...

Because the guy isn't just a good hitter with good instincts at the plate, but instead Jeff McNeil does easily batting what Chiefs' QB Pat Mahomes does easily throwing a football, and that is be amazing.

You simply cannot find these type of athletes anywhere or everyday. It does not matter that he could fetch more right now at the top of his MLB game, because he isn't even there yet at his peak in MLB. The power game that he exhibited in MiLB has not even arrived yet. It will. Be patient just a little bit longer.

You pretty much have to have played some serious baseball growing up, to fully appreciate players like Jeff McNeil. His batting ability is actually almost off the dang charts. He can drive the ball, but also literally hit the ball (through placement) to all fields. Not too many other MLB players can do that as easily as Jeff can.

If you put Jeff in a ST2019 competition with the veteran players here right now at either first, second, third base, or left field, he just might win that position. It's entirely possible people.

I don't care what anyone says, Jeff McNeil is a keeper. I have seen it with my own two eyes this kid's talent.

Tom Brennan said...

Anonymous, your make avery impressive and cogent case for McNeil. I pretty much agree with you. Like you, I'd like to see what he can really do, while wearing a Mets uniform.