10/23/20

Reese Kaplan -- Positional Analysis for Trades: C



In the words of the great Casey Stengel, "You have to have a catcher because if you don't you're likely to have a lot of passed balls."  

 

Well, the New York Mets have enjoyed a great history of reputable folks behind the plate, including Jerry Grote (more glove than bat), Todd Hundley (more enhancement aided bat than glove), Gary Carter, Mike Piazza and even post-season achiever Travis d'Arnaud.  A few years ago the fans and media were clamoring for the Mets to make an all-out push to get Yasmani Grandal who had hit free agency upon leaving the Dodgers, but the Wilpon-owned team was not up to playing in the roughly $18 million per season rate he was going to cost.  Instead they went after an injury prone but effective hitting catcher in Wilson Ramos.  The fact he was snubbing his nose at division rival Washington was only part of the smarmy sense of satisfaction they got in bringing him to Queens...well, that and the fact he was paid only slightly more than half of what Grandal got.  

 

Grandal did what he was supposed to do in his first year in Milwaukee.  He hit 28 HRs, drove in 77 and hit right on his career batting average of a paltry .240.  By contrast, Wilson Ramos showed a bit less power, only 14 HRs, but tallied 73 RBIs and hit .288 while striking out less than half as much as Grandal.  Ramos finished with a 2.2 WAR rating which is not bad considering he had no defensive game whatsoever.  Grandal was a tick higher at 2.4.  To me that negligible difference was not worth almost double the salary (not to mention the very long term commitment made to Grandal).  

 

Going into 2021 the Mets do have an option on Ramos for another $10 million or so season, but the pitching has gone from bad to horrible with him behind the dish.  He's pretty much worn out his welcome, and his lackluster 2020 performance did not do much to encourage the Mets to retain his services.  Still, offensively they are likely not to muster the same level of output from other catching options unless they are prepared to pay much more than twice as much for a very long period of time.

 

Those criteria bring us to free agent extraordinaire, J.T. Realmuto.  The Mets did make a half-hearted effort to acquire him in trade from the Marlins but deemed the price tag of Amed Rosario was too high.  They probably regret that miserliness now.  Most projections have the soon-to-be age 31 Realmuto getting somewhere in the neighborhood of $25 million per season as a testament to both his offensive and defensive games, for a period of 5 years.  If you could lock him up for $125 million and realize that a 34, 35 or 36 year old catcher is going to miss a lot of time due to knee and back ailments, that's not a horrific price, but most ballplayers want to cash in on an even larger scale.  Towards that end there are fans chomping at the bit to throw whatever it takes to land Realmuto, while others think that you don't build for the future on a physically demanding position with a player hitting the latter part of his career.

 

So, if not Realmuto, who else is out there for the Mets to consider?  The free agent pool is rather shallow (or should I say packed with guppies and not bass).  James McCann became superfluous in Chicago after his career year in 2019 when he hit 18 HRs and batted .273 while offering up excellent defense.  This short season he was right on track to improve, hitting 7 HRs in less than 200 ABs and batting .289.  He is going to be relatively cheap and if defense is what you want from a catcher who won't embarrass himself with the bat, then he's likely the next best target.  He's one year older than Realmuto and as such would likely require perhaps as little as a 3-year commitment.  For one season of Realmuto at $25 million you could probably buy three seasons of McCann.

 

No one else on the free agent list is all that appealing due to age or a balsa wood bat.  That dearth brings up the concept the Mets have seemed to forget how to use -- the trade.  Who is out there worth calling opposing GMs to hear what the price might be?

 



Well, the first one I would ring would be Kansas City to find out about defensive whiz Salvador Perez who can also hit with the best of the other catchers.  He's missed a lot of time with injuries the past few years and as such should depress his acquisition price somewhat.  He's earning $14.2 million in 2021 and then could become a free agent.  That contractual limitation should also relieve the amount you'd have to give to get him.  I'm not here to make prospective trades, but he's someone definitely on the radar.

 



The other catcher worth considering is still a minor leaguer in the Dodgers organization by the name of Keibert Ruiz.  He's not a power hitter but has a strong defensive reputation.  He has twice hit over .300 in full seasons in the minors and at age 22 he would be a very low cost option for the next several years.  He's a contact hitter, never striking out more than 53 times in over 400 ABs.  He's won awards in every league he's visited.  I'd open up the vaults, so to speak, for his acquisition.  Not being a power hitter is going to count against him so the young Venezuelan may not be as expensive as you might think.  

 

There are lots of glove and arm-first catchers around the league.  The problem is that most of them hit like Anthony Recker.  Even Robinson Chirinos delivered a sub-Mendoza season.  The club needs to decide if strong catching like the Jerry Grote days is superior to an offensive cog in the machine.  Considering how bad the pitching has been, I'm all for that approach.  

3 comments:

John From Albany said...

Reese - This has been a great series. I would still have Tomas Nido be my primary catcher. He works well with the pitchers, has a gun for an arm (though it has not shown in MLB so far) and has hit in the minors (and also in 2020) when he played regularly.

I would team him up with a James McCann or Salvador Perez or worse case a Robinson Chirinos. Preferably McCann or Perez as they could start should Nido not make it.

I think the Mets need to give Nido a chance. He has the next "Travis d'Arnaud" all over him.

Tom Brennan said...

Reese - nice analysis.

Rather than all eggs in one basket with Realmuto, getting two 30 year olds in McCann and Perez to split the duties would be impressive. If one got hurt, the other could step right in. They could expand playing time by DHing (whoops, that may not be an option).

More realistically, if you can get one, get Perez...McCann is good but fans like - well, like Recker, even though he hits better. Perez has 24 career WAR...about 50% higher than Wilson Ramos over the same number of ABs. Perez would be a super bridge to Francisco Alvarez.

Ramos by the way is 3 years older than McCann and Perez - and for a catcher, those 3 years are a lot of doggie years.

I am still not on the Tomas Nido back up catcher bandwagon, but maybe the Mets, seeing him up close, know something I don't.

Tom Brennan said...

I often do not look at WAR - but Nido is a -1.1 in his career so far, hitting .197, has thrown out just 9 of 69 at the big league level, and made 8 errors in 71 career starts. On a Cohen team, he has no chance of being the # 1 catcher - his window has closed, in the sense that the Mets will definitely be shopping for a #1 upgrade. Question is, will they think Nido is good enough for # 2? Even the best catchers start at catcher in up to around 125-30 games. WIth injury, more. A contending team HAS to know their # 2 catcher can deliver close to # 1 catcher production.