Catching.
Mike Piazza was clearly the greatest catcher overall in Mets history - look up the numbers. Hall of Fame numbers.
Piazza in his best prime years was an absolutely stunning hitter, hitting approximately .320 for 9 years from his ROY season thru his age 32 season in 2001, with extraordinary power and run producing skills.
From time to time, I wonder what his career numbers would have been had he been a career DH or first baseman, without the catcher position's wear and tear.
Ahh, catcher wear and tear. From age 30 on, he had two seasons with 141 games played, a few in the mid 130s.
For 5 seasons from ages 34 through 38, he only played in slightly more than 100 games on average per season. Certainly, many of those were not as a catcher. I won't do the research on that here, but I will guess the number is around 80 games at catcher on average during those years.
Catching catches up with even the very best.
And the current incumbent, Wilson Ramos, did nothing to show he should be the Mets' # 1 catcher next season - not if they hope to win, anyway.
J.T. Realmuto will be 30 next season. In his first 5 full seasons, he averaged 135 games played. In this short 2020 season, he played in 47 of the 60 games.
This is not a Lou Gehrig position. No one playing 162.
And Realmuto played 84 games in his career as a PH, DH, or 1B, while playing 654 as a catcher. So, 11% of his games were not as a catcher. Calculate 89% x 135 average games = 120 games on average per season as a catcher. So, on average, he only catches 75% of his team's games.
Someone will have to catch the games he doesn't catch. Or the backstop will get a workout.
As the great Mike Piazza's numbers portray, that back up catcher will catch the other 25% of Realmuto's team's games that he doesn't start at catcher. That 25% is just a starting point, most likely. Over a long term contract with Realmuto, it might average out to be more like 30% to 35% as he ages.
If you do get the coveted Realmuto, it will cost a large fortune, and even if you are Steve "Big Bucks" Cohen, there are unwritten overall spending limits even he won't exceed. And many other spending needs.
So, with Realmuto, you have precious little $$ left over to spend on your back up.
How, then, have the Mets fared with their low budget back up catchers over, let's say, the last decade?
That is the subject of my next article in this two part series.
However, a suggestion - given the fragility of catchers, would the Steve Cohen Mets be better off being very aggressive and acquiring TWO strong catchers just a year older than Realmuto, in:
and
That would basically giving you a full 162 games of close-to-Realmuto-level output from each, rather than acquiring a Realmuto who may only start at catcher over about 65% to 70% of games? My guess is those two catchers will cost about as much combined, or less, than Realmuto.
Maybe that is an unrealistic approach - maybe a tandem of McCann and Ramos (as back up) might work - but I think having quality for all 162 games, rather than starting a best-of-breed catcher for 70% and dreck for the other 30% is perhaps the better approach. Why? Because, if there is no DH in 2021, we'd be back to that 30% in the Realmuto scenario being perhaps a sub-.200 hitting catcher PLUS the anemic pitcher batting, enough to cause any offense to sputter.
So, what is the right approach to fixing catcher?
I will leave you with that question as Part I.
Part II: given that back up catchers play a whole lot, how decent, or miserable, has Mets back up catcher production been over the last 10 full seasons, 2010 through 2019? This way, you can see first hand how the back up boys have sputtered with the sticks in their hands.
Check out Part II on Thursday to find out.
9 comments:
It's an interesting outside the box idea to get a solid pair of catchers in rather than getting into a bidding war for Realmuto.
I like the idea of McCann and Perez over Realmuto. Mets have a number of areas to fill and this plan could help fill the other areas. That being said, once they figure out a budget, they need to stay in conversations with Realmuto is case his demands drop in a down market.
Ramos needs to be gone. He does not deserve his pay rate to be a backup who can't catch, only hit, and lately not very much at that aspect of the game either. Wave bye-bye.
I agree with John about McCann/Perez and also staying in touch with the Realmuto discussions.
With that said, Perez is not a free agent and would require a trade to bring him in. Two questions about that: (1) What would be a fair trade from the Mets perspective? and (2) Why would Kansas City do that? He is the heart of that team. They only have two catchers and their only top 30 prospect is #13 and is still in single A. While I do believe Perez will be a free agent after 2021, I can't see them trading him unless they get a big return.
I realize we will have a billionaire owner but he also will be fiscally responsible....until fans will be able to attend games getting the money to pay these players just on TV revenue will not work in the long run and these players will have to face the reality that lower salaries are on the horizon...we need pitching pitching pitching ...defense defense defense...and timely hitting.
Thanks for the feedback. Reese, I think Ramos would have to take back up catcher $$ of no more that $2 million, kind of like what happened with Mesoraco.
Remember1969, I agree on KC - they'd no doubt want prospects - or a guy who'd be beloved in KC like Brandon Nimmo. They might well agree with that. Without a DH, the Mets need to move someone.
I love Brandon, but if it comes down to him or the freaking XBH hit machine of Dom Smith, I'll keep Smitty. He could have had a career year - or he could be on the cusp of being one of the top 10 hitters in baseball. I'm leaning towards the latter.
Seattle Steve, it would be nice to boost the defense - but I agree, the priority is to fix that gosh-awful pitching staff. Please keep following my articles - I am getting into a lot of pressure points for these Mets over the coming 4 weeks. I think you will find it interesting. Check out the Part II of this series on catchers - it will be an eye-opener.
To paraphrase James Carville, "it's the pitching, stupid." Without fixing that the rest doesn't matter. There is clearly enough offense even if some has to be traded. Defense is another matter but you can still win if you hit and pitch and play sub-par defense. Not ideal but you can do it. If you don't pitch, you don't win.
I would be happy with McCann and any sort of defensive-minded backup. Move on to other areas.
Realmuto is excellent player all-around. He'd immediately help the Mets in every area, including up-the-middle defense. He'd help our pitchers, too. If healthy, he'd make a dramatic difference in every area, beginning immediately.
However, he sustained a hip injury this year and he's 30. That concerns me at his position.
When a club has this many needs, it's like one of those thumb puzzles. Slide one up, one over, another down: it's all inter-connected. Go cheap here; spend there; and so on.
They have a defense and a pitching problem right now.
But if Cohen wants to spend big, I wouldn't stop him, but he'd have to spend really big on 2-3 guys to make a significant difference. Right now, nobody gives me that feeling I had when Vlad was available, or A-Rod, or Piazza, or Beltran, guys we had to have.
It might make sense to think of this as a two-year plan. Solidify the organization, undo the mess the Wilpons and Sandy left behind, build the structure, while making only some fixes to the roster, not running around and trying to sign the top 3 guys (Springer! Bauer! Realmuto!).
I honestly don't know. With previous ownership, over decades, you began to get a feel for how they'd operate, how they think. With Cohen, shrug, I don't know.
Under normal circumstances, with fans in the stands and tickets to sell, I'd think he'd want to come in loud and proud and spend big. With COVID, he might take a quieter approach.
Jimmy
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