I’m sure you all remember the classic Abbott & Costello, “Who’s On First?” routine in which the common refrain, “I Don’t Know. Third Base!”
Nowadays the Mets are almost back into that “I Don’t Know”
controversy that’s been a struggle for the team with the exceptions of the many
years from Howard Johnson and David Wright.
Many have struggled to acclimate with the glove or the bat to claim the
position as their own.
When 2019 rolled around and the Mets sent a trio of lesser-regarded
minor leaguers to pick up a former batting title leader from the minor leagues
by the name of J.D. Davis was brought on board, very few paid it much
attention. The Astros had a fairly
stacked lineup and there was not likely going to be room at the inn for Davis
to become a regular.
When he auditioned in Spring Training and came north with the
club it was almost an afterthought. If
you recall, they had to accommodate space for Robinson Cano and Jeff McNeil, so
in some ways no one was sure where Davis would fit in. Furthermore, he had some outfield experience
on his resume as well, so it was entirely possible that he would be logging
innings in left field rather than at third base.
No one really needs to be reminded of the stellar show Davis
put on with his bat in 2019. In 410 ABs
he put up a .585 slugging percentage to go along with a .307 batting average,
22 HRs and 57 RBIs. His strikeout
numbers were a bit high – about 24% -- but that’s about the only chink in the
armor for offensive production.
The downside(s), of course, came when it was time for Davis
to take the field to play his version of defense. It quickly became apparent that whether you tried
to hide him at 3B or LF, he was a negative factor in defensive performance
metrics. Being a 6’3, 218 pound player,
the outfield is not likely the best home for him, but first base was another filled
position with Pete Alonso and his backup Dom Smith. There was no DH in 2019, so that option wasn’t
even on the table.
In 2020 the defense was no better than what we’d seen in
2019, but surprisingly the offense went south as well. For the year he was a .247 hitter with just 6
HRs and 19 RBIs over 190 ABs. That level
of output was unimpressive so folks were left wondering which was the real
picture of what Davis could do if playing regularly.
If you average the numbers for his career, you’re looking at
a .268 hitter with 20 HRs and 54 RBIs over the course of a full season. That’s not bad, but it’s not great either. Still, compared with the alternatives he looks
as if he would be the best choice if his output is closer to 2019 than
2020.
The other third base possibilities include some mix of
Jonathan Villar and Luis Guillorme. Jeff
McNeil is a given for either 2B or 3B depending on how they choose to
proceed. Let’s take a look at these
other two options.
Jonathan Villar is a bit of an oddity. In his best season in 2019 with Baltimore he
hit 24 HRs, drove in 73, stole 40 bases and hit .276. However his 3.9 WAR
season seemed to be something of an exception.
The stolen base numbers have gone as high as 62 in another season, but
overall his projected average season is .259/16/59 and 42 SBs. Those are not bad numbers but not All Star
caliber either.
If defense is the main priority, Guillorme may be the way to go. He was always regarded as more of a glove man than a hitter, but he did manage to have an aggregate batting average in the .280s. He once stole 18 bases and once clubbed 7 HRs, but these achievements were not replicated at other levels in the minors. He is a career .259 hitter in the majors. Without speed and without power he’s not the ideal replacement on a 9-inning basis, though as a late inning defensive substitute he might be ideal.
It appears that the thus far minor efforts to bring Kris Bryant, Eugenio Suarez or Matt Chapman to the Mets are not bad ideas at all. That sequence is likely the reverse of how they should pursue someone for the hot corner as Bryant is in the Lindor walk-year situation, Suarez has a long term contract but over 8 figures. Chapman is still under control and earning just $6.5 million this year with free agency not hitting until 2024. We could live with the in-house options but likely would live far better with an import.
9 comments:
I think management was kicking the tires this off season for 3B, but I think they likely feel that 2020 was a short season aberration for Davis offensively. I think we see better from him offensively and defensively. Sometimes, a guy just can't do 3B - lacks the arm - but Davis has a strong arm. No doubt, he worked on 3B all off season. I think we see his best defense yet, and offense closer to 2019 than 2021.
If not, go shopping in July.
Guillorme is a guy you can never bet against, but seems like an IF super sub and defensive replacement.
Villar could bring some real juice to the IF mix too.
No Danny Munos or Gavin Cecchinis in the bunch, so I am very hopeful.
Guillorme has been improving every year offensively. Keep an eye on him as the Mets have stated he will get a fair chance at 3B. In fact, I’m thinking he’s one outfield injury away from being the full time second baseman if McNeil has to go to one of the corners.
Gus, when you look at the total package (defense as well as offense) Guillorme is an asset, not a liability. He could step in and start, I believe as well.
Villar is a middle infielder, period. He's barely played outfield and hasn't played 3B since 2016. He's not a great glove -- and he's a knucklehead. What is it, 5 teams in 4 years?
Again: He led all of baseball is swinging at Ball 4 last season. That should tell you something. I don't quite get how he gets on the field unless McNeil goes down with an injury, unless they are seeing Jeff in the supersub role w/ time in LF. We know Jeff can't play 3B.
I like Guillorme -- he's completely won me over -- but for whatever reasons the organization seems less enthusiastic. It's weird. I love his professionalism, his work-ethic, his quality ABs, his outstanding glove. He takes walks, he goes the other way, and sometimes he turns on a pitch. I love him in the role of utility infielder, over and above Villar. The unforgivable move last season was the trade for Frazier which led to Guillorme (and his 300-plus BA) sitting for the next three weeks for that complete and utter bum. I'll always suspect that was a Jeff move, but it's on Brodie.
JD Davis is a hitter. You can see it. So it's pointless to round off numbers and come up with what his "average" season looks like. If he consistently gets 500 ABs, I strongly believe he'll hit. There's a mountain of evidence supporting that. What I don't know is if the glove will allow that to happen.
That said: Okay, fine, let's roll with this and and see who earns playing time.
One important cautionary note -- and this touches on Dom Smith in LF, too. When a player is in the lineup for his bat, the complaints from the peanut gallery will come loud and fast after three bad games at the plate. If a hit-first guy goes through a natural slump of two weeks, it gets tougher to stay with him (because he's hurting you with the glove).
I mean, Pete Alonso was devastatingly bad for the Mets for at least six weeks; the season was flushed before he ever woke up.
Some fans will say, "Go with the hot hand." Which always sounds generically smart but is mostly dopey and childish. The game is about ups and downs. Guys don't get out of slumps by getting benched. Usually they need support, extra work, and time. You either believe in that player's ability or you don't.
JD and Dom need to be able to struggle at times with the bat. We can look up in late April and see Dom Smith hitting .220. That won't mean, I would suggest, to put him on the bench for an extended time for a lesser player. Same with Davis. They both have earned 200-250 ABs on a fairly consistent basis, baring atrocities with the glove. Hitters don't thrive when they are yanked around.
It's a delicate balance because, obviously, if the next guy up can help us win games, eventually you have to make that move.
Jimmy
I'm curious to see how Davis bounces back offensively. If he's closer to what he did in 2019, and having Chili Davis back might help, then he's a useful player if he can get his 3B defense up to a little below average. If not, he'll have a few year career as a starter for bad teams or bench guy for better ones
Jimmy, Sorry, but I have to call you out on the Alonso comment. He was not 'devastatingly bad' for six weeks. The season didn't start until late July, and he was in a slump for the first 18. The last 42 of 60 games Alonso had a .902 OPS. The man still had 16 home runs in 60 games - extrapolated to 43 for 162. He was in a 2 to 3 week slump, not a six weeks of devastaingly bad.
Also, the Mets season was not flushed by game 19. Had they won the last three games of the year (Saturday double header and Sunday finale) in Washington, they would have been the Wildcard team, so 23 innings prior to the season's end, they were still mathematically in the hunt.
I banged the “trade Alonso” drum all winter. In fact, my original thought was to trade both first basemen for strong hauls. However, I am glad to hear they worked hard on their respective positions all offseason and am ready to be impressed.
We forget that there aren’t perfect teams and all players have weaknesses that hopefully they look to improve on. As the #1 Wilmer Flores fan that I know, it annoyed me that I never once heard that he worked on his defense. I kept saying that he should put a tire on a chair at 1B and throw 100 throws through it everyday in the offseason, but I never heard a thing. If these guys are seriously working on improving, they’ll get better. Let’s all relax.
Remember69: Don't apologize for correcting me -- but in doing so, do try to be "correct."
I said that our cleanup hitter was "devastatingly bad" for 6 weeks. Then you countered by doing some arbitrary split after 19 games to try to show how terrific he was.
Let's go back to the 6-weeks time period. That seems fair, right? Since that's what I said and what you are "calling me out" on.
Thankfully, Fangraphs allows us to look at these slices of time.
From the opening of the season July 23 to Sept 1 (6 weeks), Pete in 35 games had a slash line of .208/.321/.376. His WAR at that time, as calculated by Fangraphs, was -0.3.
NEGATIVE!
When you get to that date on Fangraphs, and list ALL THE METS according to their WAR, you have to go to the second page to find Pete's name. It's near the bottom.
On 9/1, the Mets were 15-21, in 4th place, behind ATL, MIA, and PHI, but up 1 1/2 games on WSN.
That surely wasn't all Pete's fault. Missing Thor and Stroman out of the game, the season was bound for disappointment. But . . .
Pete's utter failure to contribute was a big part of that, especially when seen on a team that was getting on base at league-leading levels. Stranded runners and Pete walking back to the dugout after flailing at a pitch in the dirt, shaking his head.
Hey, it happens.
Pete did enjoy a strong 2-week stretch in early September. Then he fell off the cliff again.
Over his last 15 games, his slash was .223/.288/.537 for a WAR during that period of 0.1. He hit a few bombs, basically, and sucked otherwise. Chris Carter territory.
But let's back up: You watched the games, right? Pete was really bad. For reasons I can't comprehend, you want to make the argument that he was good over the last 2/3 of the season, but really you are intentionally misleading people by taking that hot two weeks and stretching it forward and back.
As of 9/1, our cleanup hitter -- the guy who hit 53 homers 120 RBI the previous season, was a NEGATIVE WAR.
A minus.
I'm sorry, too, but that's bad. Don't you think?
I have hope for Pete in 2021. I'm not against the guy. I think he can get his act together, get focused again. But I refuse to pretend that he wasn't godawful for the majority of the season.
Jimmy
I agree with you Jimmy that Pete didn't have the kind of year that 53 homers and 120 rbis begged us for. What I am saying is that after bottoming out in both BA and OPS after game 18, he hit an OK .246 (not where 'we' want it), slugged .577, had a .902 OPS. I am not going to complain about a .902 OPS for a 40 game stretch from anyone. His final like of 16 homers and 35 RBI extrapolate to about 43 dingers and 95 ribbies. I'll take it. His strikeout rate in 2020 was actually lower than 2019.
His full 60 game 2020 season was very close to the stats of the first 60 games after the all-start break in 2019. He was pretty dreadful for the three weeks coming out of the ASB and recovered.
We can slice and dice stats and timeslices all day, but I am more of glass half full guy - I'll take the .902 OPS for the last 40 games.
It's all good. I love the discussion and differences of opinion among us all.
I am hoping that Pete can level out some of the highs and lows and avoid the prolonged slumps that have affected him in both of his MLB years. I may be projecting low, but I'm thinking that he is a .250 hitter with good power and high strikeouts.
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