2/27/21

Reese Kaplan -- Look At Me, I Can Be Center Field (Or Not)

One of the great unanswered questions for the NY Mets appears to be one they seemingly have not asked.  Who is going to be the everyday center fielder?  

After all, when the overtures towards now-Canadian George Springer went unanswered and the salary demands of glove man Jackie Bradley, Jr. seem excessive, it appeared that the Mets were willing to settle for what they had last year between Dom Smith in left and Michael Conforto in right.

Brandon Nimmo is a bit of a conundrum among fans.  His ever present smile and his full bore enthusiasm for the game are not even debatable.  His careful working of the count that leads to his stellar on-base percentage is also beyond reproach.  


He’s shown home run power and speed, but neither in eye popping amounts.  Still, as a competent hitter and table setter he’s on many fans’ lists as a pure starter.



However, if you dive deeper into his game, you start to see the flaws rise chillingly to the surface.  His defense which seemed more than adequate in the corner outfield positions was exposed horrifically during his 2020 foray into Willie Mays wannabe territory.  


He was the sole possessor of the rating for being the worst center fielder in all of baseball during the abbreviated 2020 season.  That’s ironic in that center field is the easiest outfield role to play.  His throws were at best adequate and his communication with the defensively challenged left fielder rotation was not too impressive.  His jumps have always been substandard and they seemed to get worse the more he played center.  


Still, like J.D. Davis at third base, Pete Alonso at first base and Dom Smith in left field, many fans figure if the offense is there then you simply live with the defense.  Let’s take a closer look.  



As a hitter, Nimmo’s finest output came during the 2018 season when he hit 17 HRs, drove in 47, stole 9 bases and hit a respectable .263.  He earned 4.2 WAR for his overall performance based primarily on his all around offensive game with an enviable on base percentage of .404.  It looked as if he might build on that fine foundation, but it was not the case.

In 2019 he slipped to single digits in home runs, just 3 stolen bases and an ugly .221 batting average.  In 2020 he was not much better.  The batting average soared to .280 but he hit 8 HRs and drove in only 18.  For 2021 he’s projected to hit .252 with 18 HRs and 53 RBIs while stealing 6.  Those numbers are not bad, but if you’re the worst center fielder in all of baseball, it’s not nearly enough offense to compensate.  



Now the Mets did add two center fielders during this Cohen rookie off-season.  The one that caught most folks’ eyes first was the walking enigma, Albert Almora, Jr.  He’s a career .271 hitter with even less power and speed than Nimmo.  However, what he does bring to the field is very strong defense.  Right now it would appear his role is the new version of Juan Lagares as a late-inning replacement for leather-challenged regulars.



The more recent addition of Kevin Pillar was somewhat surprising in that the Mets already got the strong glove in Almora and Pillar who used to be among the best is now slipping to merely average at best when it comes to defense.  In his last full season in 2019 he hit 21 HRs with 88 RBIs while managing to hit .259 with 14 stolen bases.  Don’t look now, but those numbers are better than what lefty Nimmo ever achieved, so there might be a real open competition for more than a platoon role during Spring Training.


Of course, there are still free agents and trade prospects out there who could man centerfield for the Mets, but it would appear right now that they are not improved much in this black hole from 2020.  Nimmo will be the frontrunner due to his familiarity to the club and the other players, but don’t be surprised to see Pillar sneak into the fray. 


13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Nimmo is not a good, but a GREAT, offensive player.

Wildly underrated by fans. His career numbers are nearly identical to Conforto's, entering the prime of his career.

He's the centerfielder. That question has been conclusively answered.

He's one stat:

Highest OBP since 2018 for players with more than 1,000 PAs: Trout (.439), Soto (.415), Betts (.405), Yelich (.405), Bregman (.402), Freeman (.400), Rendon (.397), NIMMO (.397).

Look at that company.

It's been statistically proven that OBP is worth about 1.7 times the value of SLG in relation to run production. It's why folks like me prefer a slash line than OPS, with adds together two unlike things.

By getting two backup gloves, Sandy showed his strategy for 2021. It's Nimmo in CF -- until someone better comes along and moves him to a corner.

Personally; This is the guy I'd be extending right now, when there's still significant savings attached.

Jimmy

Tom Brennan said...

Reese, you have to analyze Nimmo's 2019. When he was hurt, he was terrible, but when he was not he did great.

Thru mid-April he was a very solid .241/.379/.463, then had the bulging disk and was so poor trying to play with it that he ended the first half in total at .200/.344/.323.

When he returned in 26 games, he was .261/.430/.565. Tremendous.

Take out the injury portion and he was an excellent offensive force in 2019 when healthy.

I agree with Jimmy on extending him. Conforto on the other hand had his major league-leading BABIP in 2020 - that makes me nervous, that there could be real regression.

TexasGusCC said...

To continue Tom’s point, in 2020 “he returned to single digits in homeruns with 8”? Really? In a third of the season he gave you 8 homeruns and you were disappointed?

Reese, if Nimmo accepts 4/$80, hurry up and do it.

TexasGusCC said...

Again, after Nimmo was moved back in his positioning in September, his defensive numbers were more average. He was being too aggressive and playing shallow the first month.

Gary Seagren said...

Look I get it but alot needs to be said about the chemistry, if I can use that word, because to me it matters and I love what we have. I know is not quantifiable like WAR or OBP but maybe we should create one like "CAR" Chemistry Above Replacement. Well all kidding aside but I love seeing players get along like this team does with Dom and Pete and Jeff, Nimmo and MC and I'm thrilled to see the work Lindor is putting in with Luis, Jeff and JD. It just gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling heading into this season as we head to the WS...hey it can't hurt right.

Remember1969 said...

Add me to the Nimmo supporters!

Jimmy - great work with your research and conclusions. Nimmo is the centerfielder.

Gary - I am in the same boat of the added value of chemistry. I look at it as a sixth tool. The teams that have that are the ones that win. A lot of that came together in the second half of 2019 with Smith hurt and on the sidelines but still pulling for Alonso. The 'cookie club' that was formed with Smith and Davis, etc. I believe we'll see that cohesiveness pay real dividends this year. It seems Stroman is a big part of that as well - a missing piece last year.

Tom Brennan said...

Gary, I like CAR - very nice.

In a few days, in an article, I will make what I think is a resounding case FOR Nimmo.

Reese Kaplan said...

Worst CF in baseball -- Nimmo

I need way more offense to justify that lack of defense.

RDS900 said...

I love Nimmo, but hard to argue with Reese. I expect Pillar to get a lot of playing time. Would not be surprised if Nimmo spent a fair amount of time on the DL.

RDS900 said...

I love Nimmo, but hard to argue with Reese. I expect Pillar to get a lot of playing time. Would not be surprised if Nimmo spent a fair amount of time on the DL.

Anonymous said...

Reese,

I think you are correct -- but only in a myopic way.

Yes, viewed through that one narrow lens, Nimmo is a poor defensive centerfielder. Not the long-term answer to the position.

But you must also take into account the realities of the "whole" player and the current landscape of available solutions.

One could, of course, put a better defender in CF, but it would also be likely an overall negative, all things considered.

I initially thought the move should have been for Springer, who could have held the position down for a few seasons and provided RH balance to the lineup.

However, the DH situation was a serious complication. With no DH, you are essentially subtracting either Smith or Nimmo from the lineup. That's far from ideal, since both were tremendous forces offensively last year -- are young and under team control -- earn little at time when the Mets will be facing free agent decisions on Stroman, Syndergaard, Lindor, and Conforto. Money, like defense, matters. Moreover, it's possible that McNeil is ultimately best suited for the outfield. Hard to justify bringing in a new starter in that context, crowding the position. You'd be adding and subtracting to the lineup in the same fell swoop.

After Springer, there was Bradley: A player with totally unrealistic, delusional demands (was seeking the Michael Bourne contract-plus) that far exceeded his actual value. A career .239 hitter with diminishing range on the wrong side of 30. He wanted 4/$48. Everyone in baseball passed on that. The Mets wisely passed, too.

Every weakness has to be looked at within the context of, again: 1) The whole player; and 2) The options for an upgrade. We can make too much of one detail and miss the big picture, which is what I think you are doing here.

I try to be fair with Sandy, who is, at the end of the day, a reasonably competent GM. In this case, with the DH uncertainties, he was put in a very challenging position. All things considered, I believe he came to the right decision for the 2021 Mets.

He was also the GM who drafted both Nimmo and Smith. He deserves credit for that. But also, it's easy to see that he has attachments to those players. The value for both of them will only increase; they need to play.

Jimmy

Herb G said...

What more is there to say? As of now, without the DH, Nimmo in CF is the right decision. Didn't mlb.com rank him as the 5th best CF in baseball? That's taking all aspects into consideration. So, I will be fine with Smiling Brandon starting in CF, with eithrr Almora or Pillar coming in for late inning defense.

Personally, I would hav3e offered Springer 7 yrs/$162 million with an attractive opt out after 4 or 5 years, front loaded to make an AAV of $25 million.

Tom Brennan said...

Herb, if MLB had decided on the DH, I'll bet getting Springer at the $$ you suggest, or thereabouts, would have happened. How wacky to not know whether the DH would be used or not - a normal business would have decided that 2 days after the World Series.