Pete Alonso hit a rookie record 53 HRs and drove in 120 in his amazing rookie season.
Pete Alonso regressed in 2020, with 16 HRs and 35 RBIs and a lower batting average in his shortened season.
Stats don’t fully show how much he seemed to be ineffective frequently in 2020. Just watching him strike out on low, outside sliders was painful at times.
Mets’ fans assume he will bounce back in 2021.
Before you assume that will happen, chew on this:
Per Baseball Reference split stats for 2019, Pete did this in the first half:
325 ABs, 30 HRs, 68 RBIs, .280/.372/.634.
Explosive.
2nd half?
272 ABs, 23 HRs, 52 RBIs, .235/.341/.522.
Big drop in average and slugging %.
A material drop in his splits from the first half to the second half of 2019.
Moving on from the 2nd half of 2019 into 2020?
208 at bats in 2020, 16 HR, 35 RBIs, .231/.326/.490.
If you then boost 2020 at bats to equal the 272 at bats he garnered in the second half of 2019, you get:
272 ABs, 21 HR, 47 RBIs, .231/.326/.490.
In other words, Pete’s projected 2020 #'s looks an awful lot like his second half of 2019.
Could it be that the league figured him out and his second half of 2019 and short season in 2020 represent what Pete is?
Did baseball pitchers catch up to Pete?
Probably, to a perhaps considerable degree.
What would Alonso's 2020 numbers have looked like over, say, 597 at bats, which are how many he had in all of 2019?
46 HRs, 100 RBIs, .231/.326/.490.
That would be playing almost every single game. Which he is less likely to do in 2021. Still impressive power numbers.
If that is the new "Alonso" normal rate of production, could you live with it as a fan?
You might have to.
Unless of course he can solve pitchers' revised plans of attack against him. If so, it could be payback time for Big Pete.
Thoughts?
11 comments:
Maybe he can learn to shorten his swing with 2 strikes and become a more complete hitter? Also having Chili back full time may help out a bit?
Zozo, I sure hope so. Try to hit straightaway and put the ball in play with his tremendous power. HRs will come - and hits, too. Easier said than done - just look at similar hitters, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo, who strike out even more than Pete. Haven't seen Judge change for the better there.
Pete has such amazing exit velocity - get the bat on ball and great things will happen. Whenever he gets to 2 strikes in his at bats, he is a career .166/.252/.366 hitter in 489 plate appearances (about 55% of his career ABs) and a 50% K rate with 23 HRs. Shortening up his swing would be smart.
McNeil, a VERY different hitter, reaches 2 strikes in 45% of his plate appearances and hits .244, 78 points higher than Big Pete. I think if Pete could go from 55% to 50% in 2 strike counts and cut his 2 strike count K rate to 40% to 45% from 50%, he'd be a whole different threat.
Tom, good analysis, both in the essay and in your last comment.
The other thing to note is that he is a streaky hitter. His first few weeks of 2020 were awful while he finished the year strong - over a .900 OPS from the last week of August thru September. And even 2019, you grouped his entire second half together, when there were really two different stories there as well. He got off to a really terrible start after the ASB, and actually had a pretty good last month of so of the season.
I had not looked at the two strike hitting. . that definitely needs work. Hoping having Chili in the dugout all year will help.
I think Pete needs to try to not press when he is going bad. Every hitter will go thru bad streaks. Just stay cool, accept it, and expect them to end - and they will. I think last year early on, he was all screwed up, pulling too much, and pressing.
Some guys can press and bust their way out of a dip, like Jeff McNeil. Others, like Matz, can be their own worst enemy when hitting adversity.
I would have the same advice for Pete as I did for Lucas Duda, not that I am an authority on anything. That would be: be ready to always swing at your pitch on strike zero, and at any pitch in the strike zone on strike one. You don't want to get to strike 2. If you do that, the pitchers will adjust and try to get you to fish for pitches. If you don't fish for bad pitches early in the count, you'll have favorable hitting counts. Pete is a beast when he is at 0 strikes or 1 strike when he ends his at bats.
I'd sign up for a guy who produces 40 HR and 100 RBI per season on average. I think having Chili Davis back on the bench will help also. In 2019, Pete always had a notebook that he wrote in after each at-bat. Didn't see it at all last season. Maybe they just didn't mention it. If he abandoned it, maybe he should bring it back.
Sometimes I have a gut feeling about a player. My gut, in Pete's case, says that trading him might haunt the Mets for many years to come. Besides, Alderson is someone who values power hitting over almost everything else. I doubt Sandy gets rid of him.
Bob W, I want to keep Alonso, too. I love offense. I am so annoyed that it appears the DH is dead for 2021, but it hurts the Braves with Ozuna the Tuna, too.
This team will lose some games due to bad defense. But its offense will bludgeon other teams with regularity. I find that quite tolerable.
I would never trade Pete at this point.
I think 40-100 is a very reasonable expectation for him.
I just don't think that's a huge plus if the OBP isn't there and the defense blows. If you go by the WAR numbers, the big statheads tend to agree.
However, he's young, and capable, as we know, of going 50-120. And he's basically working for free.
I'm curious to see what kind of hitter he becomes. I was alarmed by the way he threw away so many ABs last season. A cluelessness that didn't sit well. Would love to see him hit for a .260 BA.
I also think he needs to prove, again, that he can square up a ML fastball.
Jimmy
Killer we wasn’t great every season. But in the Hall of Fame. Pete needs to just keep fighting to get better. At his worst, he should be decent. He could, however, be great.
There are five tools: Running, Hitting, Hitting for Power, Defense and Arm.
Pete is at best a two tool player, at worst a plus single tool. If I can get a young ace for him it should have been done already. Plenty of teams can use Alonso. If not, I hold him.
Texas Gus, good points on Pete. More Pete stuff to chew on at 9:30 this morning.
Rachel, thanks, I’m good.
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