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| Hello, Syracuse? Please hold for Mr. Eppler... |
Spring training is almost over, and the 26-man roster is set. We share some observations on the choices the Mets made.
Although I had Brett Baty on my potential Opening Day roster, I did note that I wouldn't be surprised if Billy Eppler's front office made the decision to start Baty off in Syracuse. So, when the news came that Baty was being sent down, I wasn't surprised, but I was a bit disappointed. Sending Baty down was definitely the "safe" choice for Eppler and company. However, I was hoping for a bit of boldness on their part. For all of the reasons set down in my post on Baty from earlier in the month, I thought that he gave the Mets a great opportunity to upgrade their offense a bit.
As The Athletic's Tim Britton noted in his terrific "This Week in Mets" column:
Amid the disappointingly unspecific explanations general manager Billy Eppler provided on Saturday night for sending both Brett Baty and Mark Vientos down, one comment stood out:"They're a phone call away," Eppler said. "They don't need something to happen at the major-league level. They have the type of talent where they can push their way up here.
Eppler and his lieutenants certainly can defend sending Baty down. Eduardo Escobar is a competent third baseman, albeit below-average defensively. After suffering through a disturbingly sub-par offensive output for most of the year, Escobar came back in September scorching hot after returning from a brief stretch on the Injured List. Reportedly, Escobar had worked through some personal issues and also made some mechanical changes that led to the resurgence.
So now Eduardo gets the start of the season to prove that the Escobar we saw in September was no fluke. If he does that, he likely holds onto the job for the season. If he slips back into his performance from earlier in 2022 — he was slashing .220/.273/.390 when he went on the IL in August — then Eppler needs to get on the phone with Syracuse. And no, I'm not talking about replacing Escobar if he has a bad first week, but if he doesn't produce in April then the Mets should be considering Baty.
Although I absolutely believe Eppler's decision is defensible, his remarks about the number of games played in the minors were a bit silly. Eppler mentioned that Nolan Arenado, like Baty drafted after High School, played in over 400 minor league contests. Baty has played in 273, but that doesn't count that Brett likely would have had around 100 more games on his resume if the 2020 minor league season wasn't canceled by COVID-19. Baty was one of the prospects getting some work in the alternate site that year — valuable experience even if not actual gameplay.
Another point I see made is that projection systems do not foresee Baty significantly outperforming Eduardo Escobar in 2023. I was looking at FanGraphs ZIp projections for the 2023 Mets. Zips was quite bearish on Escobar, projecting a .232/.292/.417 slash line and a 96 OPS+. They had Brett Baty at .253/.331/.424 with a 110 OPS+. Even this dark outlook for Escobar only valued Baty at just over a single win higher for the season. I'm going to guess the Mets' internal projections are more generous to Escobar. Even so, if they are projected at roughly equal production, isn't there a benefit to working the rookie into the major league lineup? Tim Britton subtitled the column quoted above "The Mets can only be patient with their prospects for so long." At some point, you have to live with the growing pains if you hope to achieve the goal of integrating young players onto this aging roster.
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