Spring training is the time of year to speculate how your team will perform, and with it how each individual will perform. We love to look through the lens of our rear view mirror because past statistics are the only thing we can be sure about. However, each player is intent upon improving flaws that impacted past performance and that match-up between a newly improved pitcher and newly improved batter always provides some surprises.
Last week I provided my projections for the 2023 Mets offensive statistics leaders. Now it is time for the pitching and defense. Once again, take out your crystal balls and help me predict who will be the best of the Mets this year.
The previous winners are based on a minimum of 300 plate appearances. Also, as with the Miss America pageant, we will also designate a first runner-up in case the predicted winner is unable to perform their duties (due to injury, illness, suspension, …).
Category: Most wins (pitcher)
Previous winners: Matz/Wheeler/deGrom (2019 - 11); David Peterson (2020 - 6); Marcus Stroman (2021 - 10); Bassitt/Carrasco (2022 - 15)
2023 prediction: Justin Verlander (18)
2023 first runner-up: Kodai Senga
Comments: I think Verlander will be healthy all season. With a strong lineup behind him, he will get more victories than many of his predecessors at the top of the rotation. This is predicated on him not inheriting Jacob deGrom’s poor run support jinx.
Category: Best Earned Run Average (ERA)
Previous winners: Jacob deGrom (2019 - .243); Edwin Diaz (2020-1.75); Aaron Loup (2021 - 0.95); Edwin Diaz (2022 – 1.31)
2023 prediction: Justin Verlander (2.54)
2023 first runner-up: Max Scherzer
Comments: A healthy Verlander will hold down opponents as he always does. Scherzer will challenge, but history says he will tire at some point and have some bad games that will cost him the ERA lead.
Category: Strikeouts (Pitcher)
Previous winners: Jacob deGrom (2019-255); Jacob deGrom (2020-104); Marcus Stroman (2021-158); Max Scherzer (2022-173)
2023 prediction: Justin Verlander (195)
2023 first runner-up: Max Scherzer
Comments: As in the previous category, my guess is that Verlander stays healthy but Scherzer spends a little time (hopefully) on the IL. The ghost ball will initially fool many people, so Senga will be up there too.
Category: Gold Glove
Previous winners: Francisco Lindor (2016, 2019 – CLE); Starling Marte (2016 – PIT)
2023 prediction: Francisco Lindor
2023 first runner-up: Brandon Nimmo
Comments: It will be a very competitive field at shortstop for the gold glove. Lindor, who won one with Cleveland, is now very comfortable in New York and with this team. With the added range requirements after the shift was removed, Lindor will flash his best leather in years and top his 2022 total of 13 Outs Above Average.
Now that you have read my predictions, let’s see what you think – make your projections in the comments.
5 comments:
I agree with all your Verlander predictions
I don't see the Mets getting any GGs
We still have the Polar Bear and the Squirrel but no more Whale. Oca and McGill can’t stay healthy because they throw too hard. Guess that 7th inning dream is a no go.
I'm hoping for middle of the road competence on defense and middle of the road competence on offense. It is the pitching (starters and relievers) that will make the big difference.
Oca in Spanish means Moose
You just got Max mad. I like it when he's mad.
McNeil for Gold Glove?
Nimmo? 3rd - lack of arm will hold him back from the tippy top.
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