Paul Articulates – A call to arms

All of the off-season hype about the New York Mets taking an aggressive approach to build a winning team for 2023 led us all to eagerly anticipate the beginning of spring training.  We were ready to see a juggernaut take the field and lay waste to all other competitors.  Sure, it is just spring training and it is EARLY spring training at that.  

Players are working out the bugs and trying some new things and adjusting to new rules, so expectations are low, right?  Not when the owner committed upwards of $360M on this version of the team.  We wanted them to go 32-0 in spring training to get some momentum for their 162-0 season.

Things have not gone as well as we expected through the first full week of spring training games.  The worrisome part about the Mets’ start is the pitching.  Remember when all of us who write said that this year’s staff looked better than last year’s great staff?  We had depth in the starting rotation – enough that people are talking about a 6-man rotation.  We had depth in the bullpen; we had the best closer on the planet.  

Well, here is a reality check. The Mets have used 41 pitchers so far in spring training, and as a team have pitched to a cumulative ERA of 4.33.  Presumed back-of-the-rotation starters Jose Quintana and Carlos Carrasco were lit up in their debuts, yielding 7 earned runs in 2-2/3 innings between them.  Max Scherzer gave up an 8-run inning to the 4A Washington Nationals.  Sixteen Mets pitchers currently have an ERA of 4.50 or greater.

OK, I’ll come down off the ledge for now.  It is too early for statistics to be significant and I know that the whole team is getting used to new pitching rules.  In fact, the Scherzer inning noted above was a direct consequence of Max testing the boundaries of what he could get away with on the new pitch clock rules.  

He was trying to freeze out batters with long delays, surprise them with quick pitches, and come set for delivery before they even stepped in the box.  Once he was called for a balk for throwing a pitch when the batter was still looking down at the plate – a fairly dangerous scenario.  Everything unraveled from there and his experiment was prematurely terminated.

What I am worried about is the back of the rotation.  Jose Quintana was outstanding for St. Louis last year, posting a 2.01 ERA with the Cardinals in the twelve games he started for them after being traded by Pittsburgh.  It looked like he had figured something out in his approach, because that was far better than his career numbers where he has compiled a 3.75 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 1700+ innings in 11 seasons.  

We need him to be that 2022 Cardinals pitcher, not the one that Chicago fans haven’t missed.  Carlos Carrasco is another concern.  His start with the Mets was pretty rocky, but then it looked like he had recovered his mojo in 2022 when he went 10-4 with 100 strikeouts before the all-star break.  The second half was not so strong, and he only threw 53 innings after the break.  Which pitcher will he be this year?  We are hoping for the “good” Carrasco but are well aware that his age could be catching up with him.

I’ll assume for now that Verlander and Scherzer will be dominant.  Kodai Senga has some adjustments to make as he gets used to a different type of mound than he pitched from in Japan, but with that adjustment I expect him to be strong in the middle of the rotation.  After that, either the two aforementioned back-end starters will right their ship, or it will be time to see if David Peterson and Tylor Megill have matured as pitchers.  

Both have shown some great potential in the past, but have not been able to sustain the performance either due to injury, bad habits, or a combination of both.  They both displayed a great deal of mental toughness when they came up, and that is a key attribute for anyone pitching against the talent seen in MLB.   I hope this is their time to shine, because with the loss of Trevor Williams to the Nationals during free agency there is not a lock on the “next man up”.  

There are several pitchers vying for that next spot that are worth watching closely during the spring.  Elieser Hernandez is getting stretched out for spot starts or long relief, John Curtiss is back from surgery, and there are some likely AAA starting pitchers that would like to make an impression with the big league coaches.  There is also a guy named Bryce Montes de Oca that I won't describe here - Tom Brennan will tell you all about him soon.

Buck Showalter and Jeremy Hefner will undoubtedly be keeping a keen eye on how these pitchers progress.  With a long season and inevitable injury issues ahead, it will take a lot of arms to get through a successful season.