With the regular season starting today for the New York Mets, the fan base is looking forward to a strong season. While we lament the unfortunate injuries to closer Edwin Diaz and upcoming relief pitcher Bryce Montez de Oca, there are many healthy players on the roster that are ready to contribute to a successful season. You have seen several predictions in recent articles on who will be in the lineup and who will stand out on the mound. Today’s post will take a look at the Mets’ outfield.
The Mets are blessed with a very solid core of starting outfielders. Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, and Mark Canha would be the envy of many MLB clubs, but here in New York they are almost taken for granted as people focus on who the fourth outfielder will be or who is going to be assigned DH duties. I want to take a look at the strengths, because I predict that this outfield trio will provide a very pleasant upside for the Mets.
Brandon Nimmo has recently signed an eight year, $162M contract extension. The Mets were excited to bring him back, and for good reason. Nimmo has improved every year as he continues to drive for excellence. His hitting, his power, his defense have all steadily improved. Last year he also proved very durable with 151 games played. His health was always a big question mark based on several injuries sustained in previous years. None of those injuries represented recurring weakness in a body part, they were just various setbacks suffered by a guy who was going all out on every play. He will continue to give it 100% out there, but with age comes wisdom, so my projection is that he avoids long term injuries and will play through most of the normal wear and tear. Although he slashed .274/.367/.433, his power numbers have dipped over the last two years, and a resurgence is due. For a guy that has had an .800+ OPS in four of the last five years, a resurgence in power is going to push him over the top as one of the elite outfielders in the NL.
Mark Canha is another guy that will increase his power numbers. He admittedly was tinkering with his power swing late last year and came up with some very big home runs in pivotal games. Canha’s value to this team is often understated. He is a versatile outfielder that can play all three positions. He has turned in admirable on-base percentage numbers every year and should continue to do so. Expect to see Canha and Nimmo on base a lot this year.
Starling Marte has been an outstanding player for most of his career. We unfortunately found out just how valuable he was to this team when his late-season injury coincided with a Mets losing streak that backed them out of first place. Marte may be 34 years old, but he can still hit, throw, and run with the best in the league. He slashed .292/.347/.468 last year in 118 games. The key will be keeping him healthy this year, and with the versatility of Canha and McNeil plus the addition of Tim Locastro and Tommy Pham to the team, there should be no problem with giving him enough rest to remain charged for a late season run.
Those top three outfielders combined for 11.2 WAR last year and I am expecting even greater performance this year. When they need a breather, there is adequate health. As mentioned, the Mets have added Tim Locastro to the roster this year which brings speed and hopefully a productive bat if spring training was any indicator. Tommy Pham has a great deal of MLB experience and though his defensive stats are mediocre, he provides a little more depth. Add the ability of McNeil to play both corner positions as needed and the Mets should be able to sustain a high level of outfield production throughout the season.
Get ready to watch the New York Mets outfield this year. It is going to be a great ride.
6 comments:
I like your thinking here, Paul. The pivotal guys here are Pham and Locastro.
I'm not a Pham phan, but I'm hoping he proves me wrong. His history of declining #s and problems relating to teammates is concerning. He brings little in terms of speed and D, so if he's not hitting he's not worth his paycheck.
Locastro is almost the exact opposite of Pham. He brings speed and D, but little power, and he has not shown much with the bat. He serves a very useful role in late innings; he can be a defensive replacement if needed, and as a PR if someone like Vogie or either Catcher reaches base in spots where a SB can be critical.
I expect our "ghost" OFer will be Luis G, though he won't play there. If we need someone with a LH bat on days when Canha or Marte needs a day off, I can see Luis playing 2B so that McNeil can move to a corner.
I wish we had some OF talent at AAA, but it doesn't look as though we do, so our bench is already here.
L.G.M!!!
Pham was terrible this spring, and why should Locastro be any better than Jankowski was? The three starters are very fine.
Nimmo has that shortened RF fence, which should add a few dingers.
I still can't help feeling that McNeil is going to wind up out there if one of our top three goes down.
Also, I expect our current plans for RHDH to go up in smoke early, prompting a return of Vientos, who can also play the corners
The fact that our DH is hitting in the 7th or 8th spot is a problem. We need one to hit behind Pete.
Bring up Vientos to DH
Thought Mangum would be this year's Jankowski.
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