Older, aging hitters are better off heading to the beach.
One by the Aegean Sea, perhaps? Better to tan than fan, man.
38 year old Jed Lowrie, good ol' Jed, a Beverly hillbilly who once barely kept his family fed who happens to own the Mets’ record for least at bats (7) from an expensive key acquired player in a two season span, well, he recently retired in March.
He had declined (post-Mets) to .246 in his age 36 season, and plummeted to .180 as a 37 year old in 2022. A 25% reduction in hits per AB.
Jose Reyes suffered a very similar plunge (.246 to .189) at a slightly younger age in his mid 30s.
I bring up age-related decline among baseball hitters (the latest being Jed) so much that it must be getting old to our readers.
Ask any octogenarian politician what they think of age-related decline, and after asking you to repeat the question, they will no doubt decline to comment.
Kidding aside…
Age-related BB hitter declines fascinate me.
So I googled the topic and found a few Fangraphs articles, see links below, complete with nifty graphs.
Declines are seemingly sharper the older the average hitter gets.
Each player’s hitting skills, as I see it, are made up of 3 things:
1) How close a player is to his optimum lifetime “fast twitch maximum.”
2) Experience, that allows a player to counteract declining fast twitch skills.
3) Chutzpah levels in the player’s bloodstream
Interesting graphs on age-related hitter decline (Fangraphs)
And...
A 2021 Follow Up Fangraphs Article on Hitter Age-Related Deterioration
Of course, the latter article also notes the obvious - an individual 36 year hitter might have a better year at age 37, but that is the exception.
Anyway, as a hitter's fast twitch slows enough, it reaches the point in each hitter’s life where you can have all the experience and chutzpah you’d like, but you are nonetheless in irreversible decline. Jose Reyes had plenty of experience and chutzpah in his final season, but he still hit a buck eighty nine. Without the fully functional twitch, you can only tweak so much.
Morale of that story?
Stay away from aging hitters. They fail a lot. And man, can that get old fast.
Why? Age. Declines are often precipitous. Hits no longer precipitate.
Stay clear of the precipice. Go young.
For now, though, the Mets start the season with the oldies.
There is some sense to this. Veterans, even old ones, have been through opening week jitters and are likely much less immune to pressure and panic than kiddies. After all, the vets are getting paid, whether they get cut or not. They've weathered innumerable MLB slumps and realize they end.
But age is a tough taskmaster - so you can be as unpanicked as one can be - but as Jose and Jed found out, age can still knock you on your butt. We'll see how it goes.
Kids have to go back to AAA and demolish it. Force Eppler's hand.
Have a good day. You're young, remember to act like it.
But, to give you the warm and fuzzies, how did 3 aging hitters, namely Tommy Pham, Eduardo Escobar, and (now departed) Darin Ruf do this spring?
Well, if your cup of herb tea is 4 doubles, no HRs, 5 scintillating RBIs, 29 Ks, and a .146 average in 109 combined at bats, this trio is just for you!
And Daniel Vogelbach, a 30 year old with what some might describe as a 40 year old physique, well, he went 8 for 39 (.208) with 12 Ks.
Authorities have tried to geo-locate these 4 dudes, but like the players themselves, they've lost contact.
Face facts: fans are forlornly facing a fading fraternity of four flailing fellas, full of fast and furious foibles, fannings, feebleness, and failings.
"The Four Farts"? Or, as Ed Sullivan might call them, the Drab 4.
Their combined spring grade charitably was F-.
Michael Jackson was asked his opinion of the four, and he responded "Beat It, Beat It, Beat It, Beat It."
All 4 were last seen outside the local social security office, having left their walkers in their cars, filing for age-related retirement benefits (one could wish, anyway).
BULLPEN RANKINGS:
MLB just had a top 10 team bullpen ranking.
1= Astros, 3 = Braves, 7 = Phils, 10 = Yanks.
Mets? Below 10, somewhere, thanks to Patellar Eddie. Due to him, theis writer is not jumping up and down with glee.
OUR DEARLY DEPARTED:
I did not mention ex-Met Patrick Mazeika all spring. The former Met who hit .191 with a .214 OBP last year was 3 for 18 with 1 RBI this spring with his new organization. Which was very much in line with his fellow 2021 Mets catcher James McCann, who finished the spring 6 for 32 with 1 RBI.
Back to the Ruf trade: Traded in mid-2022 for Ruf to the Giants, JD Davis is 14 for 44, and hit well with SFG in the trade in 2022. Bonehead move.
But JDD has just 2.2 career WAR, so keep that in mind, and will be a free agent in 2025. He ain’t Mike Trout.
Three Mets pitchers surrendered in that trade? As best I can tell, only Szapucki pitched in spring games. The Giants used 52 pitchers but Nick Zwack and Carson Seymour appeared to have not gotten into a single game. Hmm.
Anyway, Szapucki was 1-2-3.
As in, 1/3 of an inning, 2 hits, 3 walks. SMH. Quite a workload.
So, the Ruf trade was dumb, but the 3 pitchers? It wasn’t like we gave up something valuable like…like…well, Mack, like Bryce Montes de Oca, OK?
SAME PLAN, DIFFERENT YEAR, DIFFERENT DUDE: Last year it was speedster Travis Jankowski, this year it is Tim Locastro. Same exact player…will the results somehow be different?
SERVICE TIME ARTICLE: check this out, dawgs - ya might learn sumthin’, and maybe this is part of the reason no Baty, Vientos, Alvarez to start the season…conserve that cheap and easier-to-trade-a-guy service time….
11 comments:
Article from a few weeks ago: Kapler told reporters today that Szapucki is headed for further examination after experiencing some elbow discomfort, however (via Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News). The club figures to provide more information about his outlook and return timetable in the coming days.
So one who writes for a S.F. Giant blog similar to this one has Seymour at #28 and Zwack at #39. Quite low. Add to that the always ailing Szapper. Try throwing righty, Tom, that lefty thing isn’t working. And then the fact that JD Davis would have blocked Vientos, who I think will outslug JDD.and the trade was not that terrible.
I walked out to the diamond on one of the Mets backfield after practice around 10 years ago and went through my old stuff up and dig in routine at my designed spot playing third.
I closed my eyes and thought about all those hot shots that I scooped up and fired over to Jimmy Armet or Duke Carmel at first
Then my back started to hurt while I was in that position and had to slowly get back to the erect position
Heard some maintenance worker scream GET OFF THE FIELD and I limped back to my car
Isn't JD hurt again?
Seymour is an interesting case. Even he thought he was drafted to be a reliever but Mets told him day one he's a starter and he's been at that ever since. Curious if that eventually changes. I'm always rooting for him. Kind person and kind family.
Tom, you're too knowledgeable to fall for the old "look at this guy's ST stats. They prove that he's....." routine.
Old guys like us can probably remember (as long à we still have that ability)dozens + of ST hotshots who fizzled as soon as the season started, and the reverse. Veterans below their peaks can still outperform yoots in their primes.
Should we dump the gee-ers at the top of our rotation and give their spots to Megill and Lucchssi?
Or getridda old man Marte?
Yes, we have an "old" team, but within 2-3 years the oldest will step aside and we can look forward to lineups that include names like Baty, Vientos, Alvarez, Mauricio, Ramirez, Jett, Vasil, Hamels and others.
As MLB adds new rules, should it include a mandatory age, or use Anny Hoffman's "don't trust anyone over 30" as it's slogan?
BAH! HUMBUG!
Anyone can fail
Just ask Mark Appel
Bill, I’m mostly with you. Core guys use spring to get ready. I remember Seaver working on stuff in rocky springs…season started, and he was Seaver.
I really think that the Mets’ payroll is going to be really high for years, so to tamp that down, if you keep our top 4 in the minors longer, every day they’re cheap, they’ll be bona ride major league hitters and defenders. Mets won’t waste the cheap dollars in keeping them around right now thru possible growing pains. The money projections are all gamed out.
Ernest, hoping Seymour excels, too, but to have him and Zwack averaged as the SFG 34th best prospect means we didn’t trade Dom Hamel od Tidwell equivalents. So, when fans moan that we not only traded for a Ruf stiff, but we gave up 3 really promising pitchers, that may not be all that objective. We traded 3 pitchers who might have modest MLB success at best, until proven otherwise.
Ummm,chances are Baty and Vientos will be up by May 15 if they play well. Alvarez will be up by the All Star break if he’s hitting with power.
Woodrow, I think the call up point will be when the Mets' offense is swooning or someone gets hurt. I think they are all ready, even Alvarez. Alvarez may have been quiet at the plate, but he can go torrid on any given day, which he showed last year.
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