Paul Articulates - Buckle up

It has been an interesting run lately, as the Mets have now won four series in a row against some formidable opposition.  It began as our hopes were in the dumpster from a very tough start against some very average teams – swept by Milwaukee and outmatched by the Tigers.  But then when you thought the bottom would drop out, the Mets won a series in Atlanta, beat a good Cincinnati team in their park, and also won series against hot Pirates and Royals teams.  Hope surged, but then the team was off for a west coast swing – always a big momentum killer – where they had to open against the star studded Los Angeles Dodgers.  As you know, they won that series too.  Suddenly we were back to the “Ya Gotta Believe” mantra as fans that had been bemoaning the start were now claiming that they had predicted the playoffs for 2024.

Reality is actually a little bit of neither end of the spectrum.  This Mets team was always built with many solid players, and as we have often written they were being built to win in the near future.  So when they show spurts of success, we should not be surprised.  But we should also not jump to the conclusion that the future is now.

What has worked so far is some very impressive pitching – even with Sunday’s 10-0 loss, the team’s ERA is the seventh best in baseball at 3.48 and it is also worthy to note that they are second in the national league with that ERA.  There has also been some very timely hitting which has led to a twelfth best runs/game average for a team that is hitting below .250 and has not gotten much production from stars like Nimmo, Lindor, and McNeil.  With Brett Baty playing like we had all hoped he could, things could only get better.

Before things really do get better, there are some glaring anomalies that have to get fixed.  For instance, and this is a point I have been harping on for a few weeks, the starting pitchers are not getting deep enough into games.  They are going to stress the bullpen if they continue to get lifted so early in the game.  Currently the Mets starters are averaging 4.91 innings/start, which means that the bullpen needs to provide the other four innings of work.  There are only nine teams in baseball that have stressed their bullpen more than the Mets.  Additionally, the entire pitching staff needs to throw more strikes.  Their walk rate is almost 10% which also ranks amongst the worst in the league.  The Mets’ pitchers walked 10 in Saturday’s win and then another seven on Sunday.  Walks put men on base, and the Mets’ defense has not been up to the task of eliminating them.  Gary Cohen cited a statistic during Sunday’s broadcast that the Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) metric for the Mets was the worst in baseball.  In addition, the Mets batteries have been extremely unsuccessful against stolen base attempts – 1 for 29 as of yesterday.

There are so many factors that go into playing winning baseball, and the Mets have demonstrated proficiency in some areas but also deficiency in others.  That makes the probability too high that things will turn back around and create a roller-coaster season.  This is not what the doctor ordered for new manager Carlos Mendoza – he will soon be starring in his own TUMS commercial with this walk rate and the defensive miscues. 

Some of these problems seem to be very solvable.  The DRS stat may be misleading this early in the season.  Baty has played some great 3B defense, Lindor is a gold glove caliber shortstop, McNeil is more than capable in both the infield and outfield, and the starting outfield is full of speedy, talented defenders - two of which have won gold gloves.  The walk rate likely reflects choices in how to pitch opponents and this can and should be adjusted.

The season is 21 games old (13%) and it is already very interesting.  Stay tuned for the rest of this wild ride.