4/27/24

Tom Brennan: Rehab Pitchers' Timetables; Ritter No Quitter; "A Ram"; JD Debut & Fence Gripes; Minors Recap


BACK IN HIS COLLEGIATE DAYS, A LONG TIME AGO


Luke Ritter is not a quitter as a hitter.

Through Tuesday, in AAA:

Luke Ritter was hitting .275, with 5 HRs and 9 RBIs.in 51 at bats. 

Very nice. Also very nice that he is still trying, still playing, when others might have called it quits.

He’s no quitter.

The 27 year old was a 7th rounder in 2019. He is now 27. He plugs on. He steadily and gradually improves.

He amazingly had 229 at bats in 2019 in rookie ball in Brooklyn after being drafted, but just 1,127 at bats since.

No baseball in 2020, of course.

In 2021, just 250 at bats in A ball. 94 strikeouts in 73 games. Not good. His 14 HRs were a bit eye-catching in a low-powered organization, though.

In 2022, he split his time between AA and AAA. He hit just .215 in AA, followed by 26 games of .160 in AAA. Not good. Some might have quit.  Not Luke.

In 2023, the same split of time. Between leagues, he upped his power game, hitting 27 HRs in 369 at bats, .240 in AA and a much-better-than 2022 .247 in AAA. Didn’t quit, did improve - a lot.

In 2021-23, he fanned a too-high 396 times in 306 games. Not promising.

But three positives:

1) While just a .229 career average, his OBP is a much higher .336.  And improving.

2) In 2024 so far, “just” 16 Ks in 56 plate appearances, an improving rate of 1 every 3.5 times up.

3) In AAA, in 2023 and 2024, in 274 at bats, 18 HRs (a fine rate) and .255, with “just” 94 Ks in 320 plate appearances. Signs of real improvement.

Somehow, since his career began in 2019, he has just 1,594 plate appearances.  That tells me as he plays more, he can still improve.

I’d like to see a guy like Luke have a big year in 2024, with MANY plate appearances. 

It is hard when they bring in veterans like Choi to eat into his PAs. Mark Vientos, by comparison already has 30 more PAs this season than Luke.

Ritter is a righty bomber who plays decent defense at 2nd, 3rd, and first.

Pitchers get called up to the majors and get sent down a lot. But at least they get there. 

So many hitters don’t, and with the greatly reduced September roster expansion, it is that much harder to reach that major league dream.

I hope Luke makes it to the majors at some point. A big AAA season, with more continuing improvement, could make that happen. 

If not with the Mets, somewhere. 

If not, why not Korea or Japan? They love sluggers.

It ain’t quittin’ time yet. Not even close.


STARTERS? WHEN ARE THE FALLEN STARTERS TO BE READY AGAIN?

The Mets have pitched well, considering four starters either never made it into spring training, got hurt in spring training, or got hurt just as the season started. When might these 4 be ready?

MAX KRANICK: SP 7 

4 outings, 8 innings in rehab. He got up to 50 pitches on April 21 in a AA rehabber. Let’s assume he’d be ready to start in 2 weeks if needed. So…May 15?  If needed in relief, it could cut that to a week. Say, May 5.

DAVID PETERSON: SP 5

It seems reports are that when he is due to come off the IL in late May, he will be ready. So…let’s say on or about June 1.

TYLOR MEGILL: SP 5

Apparently he and his sporkball is just about ready for rehab starts, needing 3 and then ready to return. Let’s therefore assume around May 20.

Per Anthony DiComo:

▪️Tylor Megill (shoulder strain) is due to begin a minor league rehab assignment (today) Saturday with two innings at Brooklyn.

KODAI SENGA: SP 1

You go easy on SP 1 types, so I will take a blind stab that after 3 rehab starts, he is ready to return about June 10. Maybe that is too cautious a guesstimate.

Per Anthony DiComo:

 ▪️Kodai Senga (shoulder capsule strain) threw an up-down bullpen yesterday and is scheduled to face hitters for the first time on Monday.


That four man heavily armed cavalry will arrive relatively soon. 

General Custer Cohen is hoping it is at the “sooner” side of soon.

If that plan goes awry, Messrs. Christian Scott and Dominic Hamel are increasingly looking ready to make the jump to Queens. Two strikeout machines. Through Wednesday, the duo had fanned an amazing 61 AAA hitters in 39 innings. That works for me.

Lots of soon-coming competitors for current struggling starters Adrian Houser (7.45 ERA/1.76 WHIP) and Jose Quintana (4.21/1.60) and perhaps even Jose Butto (2.86) to worry about.


A-RAM IS RAPIDLY RIPENING

Our buddy Bill Metsiac wrote yesterday: 

“I'm surprised you didn't mention my minor-leaguer-to-keep-an-eye-on of the early season, young Senor Ramirez.  3 more hits last night, including 3 doubles, plus a SB.  He's now batting over .360!!! His numbers are screaming, "get me to Syracuse ".  If he keeps hitting there, this Winter we may be asking, "Soto who?"”

Yep, Alex Ramirez had his A-Ram upgraded this off season. 

Ramirez has indeed ferociously rebounded from his pretty terrible 2023 season at hitter-crushing Brooklyn.

Through Thursday, in AA, he is hitting .361/.412/.525. His .361 is 3 points out of the league lead, and he is 12th in OBP and 10th in slug %. On Friday night, he stole his 10th and 11th bases in just his 17th game.

Promote him? 

Sometimes, a Lou Gehrig is in your way. Not this time, though. Instead:

3 veteran Syracuse outfielders (Thompson, Sanchez, and Kohlwey) are 22 for 152 (.144) through Thursday.

What to do?

Demote one of those munificent three and promote Ramirez in his place. 

Right, Bill?  

After all, forget Soto, Alex Ramirez will no doubt be the next Manny Ramirez.


MARTINEZ DEBUT A LOSS

JD had 2 hits, and a RBI, but the Mets suffered a 4-2 loss. Nido homered. 8 hits, but no walks for the Mets. Butto wasn’t as sharp as usual. Atlanta (18-6) loses Strider and doesn’t lose a stride: now 18-6, and 5.5 games ahead of the Mets with a handful of games left to play in April.

FENCE ALERT: 

Back to JD - his lined double last night (in his Mets debut) to right field narrowly missed being a HR.  Watch the video yourself on Mets.com.  Dang close.

If SOMEONE in the front office woke up and had the gumption to do the right thing and moved the fences in 5-7 feet to finally and simply make the field NEUTRAL to hitters, that shot easily sails out of Citi Field for JD's first Mets HR, and elicits a major fan thrill.  

Simple maxim, front office fellas and fillies - when your hitters score more runs at home, because the park dimensions are not punitive, you as hitters feel rewarded, and the pressure is off, and you hit EVEN BETTER THAN "BETTER" - a multiplier effect.  

That ball was almost caught - how deflating would that have been?  Slightly closer Citi fences = fan AND hitters' elation.

The hitters would score 50 more runs at home. 

The pitchers?  Too bad - you've had it too good for too long. Adjust.


MINORS RECAP

Pitching at all levels but AAA was simply superb. 

Pitching in the Mets minors has produced many superlatives lately.

Syracuse: 

Mike Vasil was not good again, going just 2 innings on 70 pitches. 10.91 ERA. 

Mark Vientos homered his 5th, and drove in 3, but Syracuse lost 7-5.

Binghamton: 

It was the Rowdey and Rudick Show.

Rowdey Jordan (.277) went 4 for 5, and Matt Rudick was 2 for 3 and a walk. Jordan doubled twice, while Rudick launched his 2nd. The other 7 hitters unfortunately went hitless.

A 3 run outburst in the 9th nailed down a 5-3 win. Joander Suarez (3.38) went 6 innings of 1 run, 5 hit ball, and Wilkin Ramos (1-0) fanned 3, keeping his ERA at 0.00, to pick up the win.

St. Lucie: 

5th rounder Zach Thornton (1-1) nicely threw 5 innings of one hit shutout ball, fanning 6, as the Lucites won 2-0. Jawilme Ramirez (0.00) threw 3 innings of one hit shutout ball in relief.

Mighty Marco Vargas (who will be very good) had 2 hits, and hitting machine Nick Morabito (.367) had 3 more knocks. Chris Suero had a hit, too, and is batting .316.

Brooklyn:

Jordan Geber (2.25 ERA) won as he threw 5 innings of 1 hit ball, and 11th rounder Brett Banks (0.00) threw a hitless 6th, followed by 3 hitless innings and 4 Ks from 15th rounder Justin Lawson (0.00), who has pitched great in the early going. 3-0 win, as Brooklyn made the most of its 4 hits and several walks.

10 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

No doubt, Mike Vasil takes comfort in Cy Young winner Blake Smell’s ERA exceeding 11.00

bill metsiac said...

I wonder why Vasil seems to have hit a wall. Hidden injury?

A-Ram was 0-4 last night, his BA down to a paltry .338. He still had a walk, RBI, and his 10th and 11th SBs.

Supposedly, the jump from A to AA is the toughest, but I don't recall a prospect who struggled badly in A+ and made the jump almost trampoline-like.

I doubt he'll be bumped to AAA right away, but it could be before June.

Tom Brennan said...

Bill, we will see on A-Ram.

Vasil wasn’t good most of 2023 in AAA, either. Of all the young pitchers in AAA, he should therefore logically be having the least adjustment at this point, not the most. Puzzling. He was an 8th rounder…maybe he is hitting his talent limits in AAA? Time will tell.

bill metsiac said...

We were hoping he'd make it to Queens this season. At this rate, he may get to Bingo instead.😖

Tom Brennan said...

Bill sometimes it takes a step back to move two steps forward.

Tom Brennan said...

Not to worry, Mets fans. Houser, our stopper, is pitching today.

Gary Seagren said...

Just a few thought's. It sure would be nice to be like the Bravos and bring up a player like A-Ram and have him excel right out of the gate like say Harris Jr. or Strider or Acuna or well you get the idea kind of like that's their default setting not our's but it needs to be David. Was there a reason Tyrone Taylor with his team leading .869 OPS and .327 BA didn't start Friday night? I guess we all just can't wait for Nimmo's .200 BA and 200 point lower OPS to step up to the plate. Dam what ever happened to ride the hot hand. So Vientos and his almost an RBI a game stay's in Cuse'? He should have been here to DH for the 25 games until JDM got ready and fill in for Baty when he was out. Puzzling to say the least.

Gary Seagren said...

I forgot one so what exactly has happened to our Batting title Silver Slugger 2x All-Star 2nd baseman? He hasn't been close to that level a player since.

Gary Seagren said...

O.K. I'm on a roll so I'll continue. Because Marte is the only player we have who is performing like he's being paid for does this mean when the rest of the lineup finally thaw's/wakes up we should be a solid WC team? Guy's?

Tom Brennan said...

This team needs adrenaline.

Houser is sputtering badly.