Good morning.
The solution to this problem is fluid.
Francisco Alvarez, who seems to be hit by foul tips one out every three
pitches, was operated on yesterday for a fractured left hamate bone.
A hamate bone is one of the small carpal bones located on the pinky finger
side of your left wrist. It has a distinct “hook” called “the hook of the
hamate”. It also helps supports the tendons of your ring and little fingers. It
plays a key role in wrist movement and stability.
The Mets estimate the recovery time will be 6-8 weeks. This doesn’t
include the time Alvarez will need to ramp up and, then, play rehab games.
My guess is a return around June 1st.
(tell Thurmon Munson or
Campy they need surgery, plus a loss of three months, for this kind of injury
and, trust me… step back)
So, where does this leave the Mets?
The Mets have considerable prospect talent at this position, but none are
close to being ready for the Bigs. Ronald Hernandez will probably open in Brooklyn, Daiverson Guiterrez will play Lucy, and Yovanny Rodriguez will start for the FCL Mets.
Kevin Parada should have been ready this season, but, frankly, he needs
another season in the minors. Parada has bulked up while dropping 20 pounds and
dropped the glasses and replaced them with contacts. He needs a full season in
Syracuse.
Hayden Senger is the best defensive option, but you will have to be happy
with another Tomas Nido type
bat.
Two newcomers. Jakson Reetz and Chris Williams, are options too.
Speaking of Nido, I don’t expect him to stick with the Tigers when they
break camp. Detroit has Dillon Dingler and Jake Rogers on the 40 and he signed a minor league contract with the
Tigers. My guess is it wouldn’t take much to bring back the guy that has
already caught many of the Mets pitchers.
Thomas
Nestico @TJStats
Griffin Canning looked great today as he struck out 5 in 3.2 IP
Canning
could break camp as part of the rotation and the changes he has made to his
arsenal look encouraging. He swapped his curveball for a cutter and he is
tossing a lot more sliders
Thomas Nestico @TJStats
*whispers*
Clay Holmes is currently the Mets #1 starter!
8 K in
3.2 IP with a 50.0 Whiff%
Absurd!
Pitch
Profiler @pitchprofiler:
Clay Holmes struck out over half the batters he faced, racking up an incredible 50%
whiff rate in 3.2 shutout innings!
The Clay
Holmes starter experiment is trending towards one of the best decisions of the
offseason!
Mets
looking for top prospects to complement veteran stars
“If
anybody watched him coming up, in his brief debut [or] watched him win the MVP
in the Dominican Winter League [in 2022-23], he’s got unbelievable talent --
his tools are really impressive,” Christie said. “There’s every chance that as
he continues to progress that he contributes to this team this year."
Just Baseball - New York Mets Top 15 Prospects
https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/new-york-mets-top-15-prospects/?s=03
11. Nick Morabito – OF – (High-A)
Height/Weight:
5'11, 185 | Bat/Throw: R/R | 2nd Round
(75), 2022 (NYM) | ETA: 2026
Arguably
the fastest runner in the Mets system, Morabito also led all Mets minor
leaguers in hits and batting average in 2024. He is a patient hitter with a
good approach and saw his overall contact rate increase by 5% and in-zone
contact rate by 9% from 2023 to 2024.
It’s a
direct and rather flat swing, resulting in higher ground ball rates and an
average launch angle of just three degrees. The good news is, Morabito has the
speed to beat out weakly hit ground balls and choppers, but as defenders become
better, those kinds of hits become less attainable.
Morabito
has the ability to be a plus defender in center field, demonstrating good
instincts and great range. He is a major factor on the base paths, but could be
a bit more efficient, swiping 59 bags on 74 tries in 2024. Morabito is a
high-probability fourth outfielder who could have just enough offensive upside
to be a second-division regular.
12. Jonathan Santucci – LHP – (CPX)
Height/Weight:
6’2″, 205 | Bat/Throw: L/L | 2nd Round
(46) –
NYM (2024) | ETA: 2027
A
southpaw with an exciting fastball, slider combination Santucci had plenty of
first round buzz heading into his draft year before a rib injury and command
issues pushed him to the second round.
Santucci
gets above average carry on a 93-95 MPH fastball, picking up plenty of whiffs
within the zone along with chase at the top. His gyro slider pairs well with
his fastball with the vertical action to make it effective to both lefties and
righties, with gaudy whiff and ground ball rates.
The
changeup is a work in progress for Santucci as he has struggled to find a feel
for it, but flashes good vertical separation and horizontal run. That said, he
only landed it for a strike at a roughly 50% rate in his draft year.
Santucci
has a great chance of at least landing as a quality left-handed reliever, but
the Mets are hoping the command can come along enough to stick in the rotation
where he has the stuff to miss more than enough bats.
Medium -
The Really Big 2025 Mets Prospects Ranking
https://medium.com/@mdonodeo8/the-really-big-2025-mets-prospects-ranking-5c0fbaaa49f0
8) Ronny Mauricio
Mauricio hangs on to prospect status despite originally signing with the Mets a mere 14 months after the birth of the Rizzler; yet despite this, his profile is remarkably similar to when he first entered the organization. His projectable, wiry frame has filled out as hoped, and he’s now capable of hitting a ball 117 miles per hour, and he tapped into it pretty well, posting a 108.7 EV90 across MLB and AAA time in 2023. Even with the other skills grading out around fringy, this gives him significant offensive upside.
The zone contact fell from mid-80s in AAA to low-80s in the MLB, a number that’s usually still playable but closer to the collapse shelf than you want. Perhaps the biggest issue is that too much of the contact comes out of the zone — just under 40% in AAA and a staggering 45% in the majors (he is also very aggressive in the zone, meaning the plate discipline trends more below average than bad, but it’s possible the chase is so high that won’t matter.)
The swing can get really long and sometimes struggles to be direct to the ball, which leads to fairly unoptimized launch angles, especially when compounded with the amount of contact outside of the zone. A ground ball rate in the upper 40s and 7% pulled fly balls isn’t the worst for someone with his EV profile, and he still posted comfortably above average damage numbers when adjusting for spray in AAA, but the xwOBA slipped below .300 in the majors when the damage rate was merely average.
This means it’s
going to be critical that he maintains better damage figures than he showed in
his MLB stint. In terms of splits, he was better vs righties in 2023, and while
I wouldn’t move him away from switch hitting quite yet, it could be in the
cards if the trend gets worse.
Defensively,
he’s graded out a little below average by Davenport runs across the infield,
but his arm should help him handle third well enough, and he runs well enough
to not be a burden on the basepaths. Of course, this all hinges on successfully
returning from his ACL injury that happened over a year ago, and that could go
wrong in a myriad of ways, from losses in athleticism to plate skills after not
seeing game action. Maybe we’ll even see a world where he’s back on this list
next year.
Optimistic
comp: Jonathan Schoop (I wish I thought of this one but it’s too good)
9) 1B/OF
Ryan Clifford
The Mets’ deadline blockbuster with the Astros almost didn’t go through, and Houston being unwilling to part with Clifford was the reason why (at least according to team-mouthpiece public reporting). This would make sense, however, as at the time of the trade Clifford recently experienced a contact increase alongside his notable power and plate discipline.
When he got to Brooklyn, both the contact and game power plummeted, although the stadium effects played a role. When promoted again, this time to Bingo, the game power returned without the improved contact ability, with his zone-contact rates hovering around 75%, along the precipice of the shelf of contact that is borderline playable for the majors, and struggling especially in the upper part of the strike zone.
He was able to get on base by drawing walks a good bit, backed up by his 21% chase rate, although it would make sense for him to be more aggressive in the zone, especially considering the potential power output. His swing is geared for power in the air (I don’t hate the visual comp to Bryce Harper’s, although its usefulness is limited given the differences in plate skills.)
Even if he’s
sometimes in the air a little too much — the launch angle standard deviations
are likely not favorable given the amount of pop ups and relatively low amount
of line drives — the amount of fly balls combined with potentially double-plus
exit velocities should lead to home run power when he makes contact. (A fun
memory from Brooklyn was when he hit a ball to center I manually measured at
over 500 feet that confused the Trackman so much it gave a wildly incorrect
reading.)
He’s not a burner and likely ends up at first base long term, although he was drafted as an outfielder and I think the reads might be good enough to moonlight there for a while, especially with his prolific arm strength.
That said the value is in
the bat, and specifically the power/PD combo that could lead to good offensive
outputs — Clay Davenport’s projections have the combination of not hating his
outfield defense and not getting as granular as using zone-contact rate, and
therefore projecting him as a consistent 3+ win player, which feels like a
decent upside for him. First, he’ll need to prove he can keep his head above
water against major league arms.
Scouting
Grades: 45 hit, 65 power, 40 run, 45 field, 60 arm
Optimistic
Comp: 2023 Ryan Noda… but with the collapse risk of 2024 Ryan Noda
Codify @CodifyBaseball
Free
Agent Spending This Offseason
(millions
of $, rounded):
1,009 NYM
386 LAD
238 NYY
216 ARI
197 SF
22 comments:
Lots of interesting stuff. Canning was impressive. Lab enhanced?
Mauricio I will believe when I see. Delays due to prolonged absences make me less confident. Lotsof folks like Clifford. I want to see less Ks.
Morabito: will have to increase his launch angle, and did he add muscle? He will be so interesting to watch now that he will be out of windy Brooklyn. My wife and I drove briefly down to the beach ar Robert Moses State Park yesterday afternoon…STRONG wind coming in. Stupid place to play baseball.
Ryan Noda is NOT a flattering comp for Ryan Clifford.
I think Morabito is being undervalued. While understanding that the kid isn’t a bomber, young players are taught to “have a level swing and hit line drives”. I believe the kid can learn to lift a little bit and be a top ten prospect as all the tools seem to be there.
Ronnny Mauricio just needs to stand between any two white lines before I value him as an option.
Yes, Griffin Canning looked good.
I don’t know about Tomas Nido, but I don’t know that Parada dropping the glasses for contacts will change anything. After all, we all remember how good Kevin Plawecki was and how he at least performed in the minors before getting to the majors, but Parada hasn’t even done that. The only saving grace for the Mets drafting Parada is the option outside of Parada was Dylan Lesko but he has been a washout also.
Robert Moses is in Long Island. The Wilpons were convinced to put a park in Coney Island as part of the overhaul of the area. I’m sure they got all sorts of grants and I know there were no taxes to be paid for a few years.
Speaking of team ownership, why did Cohen sell the Syracuse Mets?
Not even Lucas Duda… who the heck is Ryan Noda?
I guess I agree with you on Mauricio but I still think he has the highest ceiling of any bat prospects
I think many of the Mets lab is making for better results
I think playing in Brooklyn is absurd
I look for 30+ home runs for Cliff this season in combined AA/AAA
I have nothing to add on Morabito at this point in his very young professional career
Morabito is a 2026 story. By then, he will, however, have competition for a MLB spot from Clifford, Williams, and Acuna. I could see Siri, Taylor, and Marte gone next year to make room for them.
Clifford's future may be determined by whether or not Pete opts out
Hopefully the Lab has created something in Canning...we really need it.
I'm still not sold on Mauricio. Way too undisciplined. That brief stint he had was a tale of 2 hitters. He started out great, but as soon as they adjusted, he just nose-dived. So much promise, so little discipline. He should have spent his whole off year in the hitting lab.
Encouraging report on Morabito. The last time we discussed this it sounded like he was a below average fielder. This report was much more promising. I keep saying, not every hitter can or should be a power hitter. Someone has to get on base and move things along.
Clifford...no idea on this one???
I have never understood where the responsibility of off season discipline falls
Some degree has to fall on the team
Gus, being quite nearsighted, I never realized how much contacts helped me see pitches - looking at an angle through my glasses was blurring and distorted. I started wearing contacts in my early 20s, but could never really tolerate them. Had I not had that problem, I could have played more organized ball in HS and perhaps beyond, All to say that Parada may see the ball better when hitting.
Gus, Cyclones park should put up a big, strong, beautiful see-thru glass wall to block the wind for the hitters, while keeping the view. Maybe even get theWilpons to pay for the wall
Mack, you would think with the amount of the original investment in some of these prospects that they would have someone directly responsible for their development.
Not a bad idea Tom, although I don't anyone would pay such an expense.
How about some kind of mess screening that can be taken down after games, so it isn't an eyesore.
While there at in make the park much smaller to offset the wind. Who the hell needs such a big park for Single A players.
They own them on the field, not at home in they off-season
I'd be happy if Morabito turns out to be an on base machine capable of stealing 50 bases. Think Richie Ashburn who had a nice career.
Good point, Ray.
JoeP, just move the cyclone fences in. Due to the wind, unfair to hitters.
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