Are the 2014 Mets a Better Team on Paper? (Third Basemen)

     So far we have improvement at the C and SS positions, same lackluster production at 1B, and same solid production at 2B. What can we expect from 3B?

(***Note this takes into account the team as it is today. Steamer Projections are extrapolated out to 162 games for the starter only.)

2013

Players: David Wright, Wilmer Flores, Justin Turner, Josh Satin, Zach Lutz, Omar Quintanilla
Stats:.290 AVG/.365 OBP/.459 SLG, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 17 SB, 35 2B, 6 3B, 71 BB, 130 K
(4th in MLB OPS)

     There's no question that the Captain is one of the best 3B in the game today. Despite playing in only 112 games this season he finished in the Top 5 in AVG, OBP, SLG, and WAR and 1st in the MLB in triples and SBs. In fact, Wright was in line to finish what would have been a career season as he was projected to finish the year worth 8.6 Wins Above Replacement. Its the replacements after him that drag the position down as Turner, Satin, and Lutz filled the void until Flores was promoted, who then played with an injured ankle the rest of the season.

2014

Starter: David Wright

Steamer Projections: .289 AVG/.376 OBP/.476 SLG, 22 HR, 91 RBI, 16 SB, 83 BB, 123 K

     The team missed out on what would have been a career year for Wright. Last time he topped 8.0+ WAR he regressed slightly but still ended up posting a 6.8 WAR season with more power. STEAMER believes history will repeat itself but don't be surprised if Wright has another ridiculous season Top 3 3B season.

Verdict: Push with some upside- Come On.....Its David Wright.

Mack - Okay, here's where I will start to get some flak.

Wright turned 31 this year and just got married (whatever that means). Sadly, IMO, you are going to begin to see the slow deterioration of the one player that has given this team any level of respect over the last five years.

It may not be that obvious in 2014, but it will begin. The one hope here is guys like Chris Young and Curtis Granderson will create a situation where Wright will get more balls down the pipe to hit.

Still, I don't see 2014 as being a banner year for Wright. Under 20-HRs... under 75-RBIs.

Are the 2014 Mets a Better Team on Paper? (First Basemen)

     The 1st part of our series showed that we should expect massive improvement from the catching. Lets take a look at whether or not the team's 1B will show the same.

(***Note this takes into account the team as it is today. Steamer Projections are extrapolated out to 162 games for the starter only.)

2013

Players: Ike Davis, Lucas Dude, Josh Satin, Justin Turner, Daniel Murphy, Andrew Brown, Zach Lutz

Stats: .234 AVG/.353 OBP/.368 SLG, 15 HR, 59 RBI, 8 SB, 33 2B, 0 3B, 102 BB, 171 K
(24th in MLB OPS)

     The Mets entered the season hoping that Ike Davis would be more consistent across the entire season rather than the extreme 1st half/2nd half split that he was in 2012. As we all know, that did not exactly happen. In the first half of the season Ike hit only .165 with 5 HR and 73 K to 25 BB earning himself a demotion to AAA Las Vegas. Davis would come back however and slash a career high .286 AVG with a .449 OBP but at the expense of his power as he smashed only 4 more HR.

     In his absence Lucas Duda split time with Josh Satin. While Satin's .317 AVG, 12 2B, and 2 HRs were excellent, Duda was even worse hitting as a 1B then he was as a LF. In his games as a LF, "The Dude" had a .234 AVG with a .453 SLG, but as a 1B, he only hit .219 with a .371 SLG.

2014

Starter: Ike Davis

Steamer Projections: .238 AVG/.341 OBP/.439 SLG, 27 HR, 80 RBI, 3 SB, 85 BB, 155 K

     Steamer projections are giving Davis a small bump in batting average based on his reduced K rate once he returned from AAA and they also believe his power outage last season was an aberration rather than the norm. For comparisons sake, Duda is projected to output the same triple slash line as Davis but with fewer HRs and far worse defensive numbers.

Verdict: Push. Roughly the same production but with more power.

Mack - Life sometimes just isn't fair. Davis was supposed to hit around 35 home runs until sometime in 2017 when Dom Smith is ready. Then the Mets could ship Davis off for some prospect that could have helped them at another position.

Instead, we had to go through that painful 'let's throw Davis a curve and watch him swing like a sissy' period and now we have no idea 'who's on first'.

If what I'm hearing is true (Smith opens up 2014 in Savannah and could end the season at the A+ level), than I'd rather go with the Duda/Satin platoon for one year and one year only. You do get a utility infielder (Satin) out of this and Duda would double as your 6th outfielder.

I'm also going to assume that the Mets send Wilmer Flores back to Las Vegas to learn first base and I'll give the position to him in 2015.

Davis? I would move him, but if nothing comes back, than I believe that he doesn't have any options left while Duda has one. For the sake of the team then, you might see the platoon Davis/Satin.

The LTJ Editorial: “Don't underestimate Murphy; put him at first”

“The LTJ Editorial”
Author: Luis Tirado Jr.
Date: 11-1-13
Twitter: @LTJ81
Website: http://www.TheNYExpress.com

“Don't underestimate Murphy; put him at first”

 

For the past few years, the New York Mets haven't had a permanent nor consistent playmaker at first base. We saw a glimpse of hope back in 2010 when First Baseman Ike Davis was called up to the majors and made a serious impact on the team. Right before the 2010 All-Star Game, he had the second most HR's of any rookie in team history with 11. I specifically remember his defense was on point, he was patient with every at-bat, and he came through in clutch situations. Sadly, the following year in 2011, he was hit with a severe ankle injury and hasn't been the same since. Sure, in 2012 he hit a decent .227 with 32 HR's but in 2013 he was at his worst. It was so bad, I don't even want to mention his stat line since it was a definite decline from years past. Davis was demoted to AAA and had to earn his way back up to the majors. What happened? My theory is it's all in his head. He seems to lack the confidence that he can be a solid and consistent player. If he just focused on making the right choices in key situations he would be fine but he always looked lost and confused. He didn't stick to his original batting stance and changed it up almost every few games. Even Keith Hernandez questioned who, what, where, and why did his batting stance have no consistency. Davis's defense was atrocious and all across the media, people were demanding change. That change came by way of First Baseman Josh Satin.

Satin was called up to replace Davis, much to the cheers of Mets fans across the nation to bring some kind of redemption out of first base. He was someone who was doing good in AAA and earned an opportunity to help contribute to the team in the majors. He definitely impressed, he was getting his hits, played pretty good defense, and also made a Mets rookie record! He had a streak going on 29 consecutive games he started in which he at least got on base until it ended. Once the streak ended (Ironically once Davis was recalled up to the majors and got his starting spot back almost immediately) he started to struggle a bit. Satin lost that streak he had when he first arrived and just became another name at first base where he faded away. The Mets played the new game of shuffling first basemen based on who was pitching since once excelled over the other based on righties versus lefties. I've always said that while Satin did provide a spark at first base, he was better as a quality backup or used as a pinch hitter. Perhaps he needs more time in the minors, I just don't see the superstar potential of him just yet.

As we all know, the Mets plan to spend some serious money this offseason to start building the necessary pieces to contend for a championship in the next few years. 2014 seems to be the year but it could be 2015 or beyond, who knows. It's not going to happen overnight, but the plan is to bring in some much needed top talent to compliment the pieces we already have. One interesting scenario has been the possibility of trading away more talent to get either pieces we need now or future draft picks. The most common name has been Second Baseman Daniel Murphy. He had a pretty solid season for the Mets with a stat line of .286, 188 hits, 38 doubles, 4 triples, and 13 HR's. With a solid .319 OBP he definitely was a consistent player. Many suggest that the Mets could ship Murphy to a team that desperately needs an established second baseman and acquire some minor league talent for pitching, relief pitching, and the outfield. I don't think the Mets should trade him at all, he has been an asset to the team and continues to improve steadily. I actually thought about a scenario that would fix our issues at first base and allow some other popular players a chance to be on the field instead of being just hidden away as depth.

In my mind, this is how I envision our infield according to my scenario:

First Base: Daniel Murphy
Second Base: Wilmer Flores
Third Base: David Wright
Shortstop: (acquire top talent in offseason)
Catcher: Travis d'Arnaud

I'd move Daniel Murphy to first base since he can definitely handle it and be a fixture there. Wilmer Flores has shown signs of being the next big thing in New York, similar to when we all saw the debut and eventual development of Starting Pitcher Matt Harvey. It would be a shame to just have Flores and his talent be wasted waiting behind David Wright who unless he gets injured, will be playing third base the majority of the time. Speaking of Wright, he isn't going anywhere, he will always be our all-star third baseman. Shortstop is a weak link in our infield, Quintanilla did an sub par job last season and I don't see Tejada being a permanent starter. He just gets into a slump and never seems to bounce back in a positive way. That's why the Mets absolutely need to acquire a solid top talent shortstop in the offseason. Rumors have circulated we could have a reunion with Jose Reyes but I doubt it, plus he is another player who always gets injured and isn't consistent. Throw in the fact that he's coming in towards the latter half of his career. I'd like someone like Jhonny Peralta or even Stephen Drew to be honest. Someone who can hit, be good defensively, and steal some bases! Finally, I think d'Arnaud will turn into a solid catcher but will need another year or so to keep at it. Experience behind the plate will only help his progression. He should be our permanent main catcher for these next few years.

Murphy at first base would finally put an end to the slumps there, blunders on defense, and bring more of a successful presence there. I don't want to see him go since we absolutely need him to keep building around our core. So far it's shaping up nicely, like I said, just an idea I think would work while we bring in a quality shortstop, one starting pitcher, a few outfielders, and of course, a relief pitcher or two. Let us all see what the Mets have in store for us, bidding wars for the top free agents in MLB starts this coming Tuesday, November 5^th, 2013.

Let the races begin! Before you hit the gate, trust me, leave Murphy at first base, he's got this!

The LTJ Editorial: “Cuba, baseball, and here is to the Mets bringing the next big sensation!”

“The LTJ Editorial”
Author: Luis Tirado Jr.
Date: 10-11-13
Twitter: @LTJ81
Website: http://www.TheNYExpress.com

“Cuba, baseball, and here is to the Mets bringing the next big sensation!”

For decades, the country of Cuba has been known as a hidden gem for tropical sights, world class cigars, and some of the purest sugar the world has ever seen. They have also been known to treat baseball like a religion out there. Children at very young ages practice in the streets and yards dreaming about making it in the big leagues. Cubans love baseball, it's just beyond words to describe the thrills of what happens on the diamond. For a really long time though, Cuban baseball players were banned from defecting to America to play for MLB. Luckily, just a few weeks ago, the government of Cuba officially lifted the ban of players playing in professional leagues outside of the country. Now, instead of having to defect, players are free to leave to join foreign leagues across the world. However, we all know that the fame, the glory, and of course, the money, comes from the USA. Keep in mind the embargo is still in place between the USA and Cuba, meaning, no business transactions can occur between both countries, this lift is just for athletes. The fact that now Cubans can come play the sports they love in this country is huge, provided they meet some criteria. They have to apply for a license through the US Treasury Department and have a residence outside of Cuba. All players also are required to pay taxes on their earnings to the Cuban government.

For the past 20 years, over 200 athletes have left Cuba to pursue their sports dreams in the USA. This MLB season alone, 21 Cubans defected to MLB teams and have made a tremendous impact on the game of baseball. Some of the most famous ones in the past few years are of course guys like Outfielder Yasiel Puig, Starting Pitcher Bronson Arroyo, Shortstop Yunel Escobar, and Outfielder Raul Ibanez just to name a few. Before Cuba lifted the ban, all salaries earned went directly to the Cuban government. Now they can start to live the American dream and start showing the world all the amazing talent that has come out of the country. The next big superstar proclaimed by most has already been scouted by some of the best scouts in all of MLB. Three of which are scouts from the NY Mets, much to the excitement of Mets fans everywhere. This particular player earned two Triple Crowns in the Cuban National Series league, which is unheard of. We all saw the damage this player caused in the World Baseball Classic this past March where he hit three home runs, and while batting .360 had nine runs batted in. I'm talking about Cuban First Baseman Jose Abreu.

Towards the start of October, Abreu held private auditions for over 30 different team scouts in the Dominican Republic, where he resides. He has officially been declared as a free agent and will certainly have a ton of interest from pretty much half the teams in MLB. He has such a raw power when hitting, he will grow into quite the sensation to whichever team gets to acquire his services. He could easily get 25-35 home runs against the top pitchers MLB has to offer, that's how much of an impact Abreu is going to have once he makes his major league debut. His defense at First Base is pretty solid as he has a decent arm and knows how to be quick with decisions. He's not the fastest of guys when it comes to base running and probably won't steal many bases, but he will be a great middle of the batting order kind of player. His at-bat presence is one of patience and waiting for the right opportunity to hit which will make him great in clutch game-winning situations.

It's no secret the Mets will have money to play with this offseason to bring in some much needed talent to make 2014 one to hopefully remember. When I think of First Base, one immediately thinks of the inconsistency of Ike Davis. I highly doubt the Mets will play the same game again next year of “hoping” Davis doesn't start off on another bad slump. Josh Satin is serviceable at best and while he would be a reliable backup to have, he just doesn't scream starting material at this moment. I love what Justin Turner did at First Base, but it's not really his natural position. While he filled in when needed nicely, I don't see Turner as the long-term answer. Same goes for Satin, who needs more time in the minors to develop. Abreu could be that huge missing piece the Mets need to bring solid defense, a hot bat, and some international flare to the team. Reports indicate that Abreu is seeking a deal in the area of four-years/$40 million since there is no guarantee he will replicate the success he had in Cuba in MLB. Bidding could get really out of control between teams. Once all the offers are on his table, who knows where he plans to go. Some say teams can easily go up to $60 million, so it all depends on what these scouts see that we don't to have the teams spend top money to grab him.

Is it a longshot that the Mets will bring in Abreu? Not really because bringing him in would give so many positives to the team. It's a fresh new soon to be superstar that will adjust very well with the Mets and of course in Citi Field. He would immediately fix our First Base situation and fans from across the world will come to see him play. The Mets would send a clear message to its fanbase that they want to contend in 2014 and for years to come. Acquiring Abreu and building around him would bring more credibility to that statement and have I mentioned, Abreu will bring us more wins. We haven't had a super productive and defensive First Baseman since the days of Carlos Delgado back in 2006.

Perhaps I'm getting too excited about all this. If the Mets had a press conference with the announcement of coming to terms with Abreu, can you imagine the headlines across the globe we'd see? Abreu can become the next big New York sensation and that will definitely pack the masses to get a first-hand look at any ballpark he plays in. Obviously the Mets aren't the only team in the hunt since most predict he will land in either Texas, Boston, San Francisco, Miami, and yeah, even Pittsburgh. It's going to be a fun offseason like always in baseball, especially if you are a Mets fan. I just hope he does land with the Mets since that would not only surprise the baseball world, but it could the the first piece in building that championship caliber team we've been patiently waiting for.

The LTJ Editorial: “So, where do we put Flores after Wright returns?”

“The LTJ Editorial”
Author: Luis Tirado Jr.
Date: 8-13-13
Twitter: @LTJ81
Website: http://www.TheNYExpress.com

“So, where do we put Flores after Wright returns?”


3B Wilmer Flores took the NY Mets by storm when he was called up to the majors to fill in for the departure of 3B David Wright to the Disabled List. He has made quite the impact already, getting runs batted in, coming through with clutch hits when the team needs it, and has been a nice addition to the team overall. Reality says Wright won't be back until around early September due to his hamstring injury. It's great to see he has a steady backup behind him but once Wright comes back to the team, where does that leave Flores? What position is he going to be playing at?

In the minors, Flores has played many different positions. He's primarily been a Third Baseman, but has experience playing Shortstop and Second Base. He hasn't played in other positions other than the infield so that takes out the idea of putting him in the outfield. Besides, the way Lagares, Byrd, and Young Jr. have been playing great together, I don't see the team moving Flores out there. I could see a potential chance at First Base since Ike Davis/Josh Satin platoon there and they don't really have a steady consistent player starting. I know Davis has improved from slump, but it's nowhere near the production we should be getting out of First Base. Satin has been pretty good but is more of a depth kind of player that is a solid backup. Flores, while never playing at First Base, would be interesting to see if he can handle it. However, I still think the Mets will stick with Davis/Satin platooning there for next year as much as I would disagree with that. Now that I think about it, maybe it wouldn't be good to have Flores learn everything about First Base since it isn't his natural position. I'm pretty sure there would be some kind of learning curve and would regress his productivity.

Mets Manager Terry Collins has stated that Flores will see some playing time coming out of Second Base to give Daniel Murphy a well deserved day off or two to rest up. It's going to happen at some point this season, most likely when Wright returns to play. This move would gives Flores time to adjust to Second Base in the majors. Personally, after all is said and done I'd like to play out a scenario that might very well happen this upcoming offseason. As you know, the Mets want to spend some serious money to get some high quality players to the team. They want to acquire some top talent to accompany the solid talent around them and build a postseason contender in the NL East. With the aforementioned said, I see the Mets doing something smart that will essentially kill two birds with one stone. Trade Daniel Murphy.

Daniel Murphy is having of the best seasons of his career, batting .274, 9 HR's, 53 RBI's, 14 Stolen Bases, and an OBP of .307. He's been pretty healthy and has locked down Second Base pretty well. He's had a few defensive errors this year but nothing on a consistent basis. Plenty of teams out there are looking for a strong Second Baseman and similar to what the team did last year when trading R.A. Dickey, they want to get top quality in return. We could use some more pitchers, especially when it comes to our bullpen. I absolutely see the team trading Murphy for some quality arms and moving Flores to Second Base. Now you will have another solid player on the field starting alongside Wright. Flores looks to be the real deal and it would be silly to either send him back down to the minors or trade him away because we can't find a spot on the field for him.

2014 will have all eyes on the Mets and they need to have the best players on the field to have a final product that wins games. With a strong core centered around our high quality starting pitchers, we are just a few pieces away from contending for a Playoffs spot next year. It's been quite a long time since the Mets were in the postseason and the time is now to start making the right moves. I'm confident they will make the right choices needed to bring all the talent to the surface to bring some domination in every part of the game. I'm really excited for next season and I can't wait to see the damage Flores is going to do once he gets back on that field next year. As our new starting Second Baseman!

The LTJ Editorial: “This just isn't going to be that kind of season”

“The LTJ Editorial”
Author: Luis Tirado Jr.
Date: 8-2-13
Twitter: @LTJ81
Website: http://www.TheNYExpress.com

“This just isn't going to be that kind of season”

We all got excited, especially after the All-Star game. The NY Mets were going into the All-Star break after winning several series on the road and were only about eight games out of first place. Yes, they were still 4^th in the National League East but still, there was hope that if they kept winning, they wouldn't be too far off in chasing the Atlanta Braves. Then, once again, the cold harsh reality hit that once again after the All-Star break, everything would start going from bad to worse. The Mets would start losing close games and getting clobbered when they should be dominating teams (like the Miami Marlins). Even the phenom of SP Matt Harvey started to feel it, he can't win in Miami. Yes, those same Marlins that have some of the worst statistics in all of major league baseball seem to have Harvey's number, he's winless against them.

So you look at all that, our situations at first base between Ike Davis and Josh Satin, our lack of hitting and run support, you pretty much spell what the rest of the 2013 season will look like. I hate to say it, but this just isn't our year. We don't have the impact players we need, we lack the hot winning streaks to succeed, and as of right now, we just need to keep playing as many players from our minor league system to focus on the future. Don't get me wrong, I don't want to sound like everything is horrible with the Mets, it really isn't. It's to a point now where almost every game we are in, we just can't seem to hit, even after quality starts from our pitchers, we have zero run support. It's frustrating to watch since we know we've seen glimpses of guys like Byrd, Buck, and Wright hit very well. Then other times, it seems nobody can get on base or worst case, we have people in position to score, and we just can't punch in those guys to cross the home plate. It's almost 100% predictable and annoying when you can see the double plays against the Mets coming. Eventually though, summer will be over, the Fall will be here, and the playoffs of October will begin. The Mets, sadly, won't be anywhere in sight but thinking about 2014.

What happens now? Well, I'm going to take a look at our present day starters and see who is staying and who is going. Kind of like an evaluation on our current talent and whether or not they are worth keeping for the future.......

*** CATCHER ***
When I think of John Buck, I think of a great mentor, a good teacher for guys like Recker and eventually d'Arnaud so I would keep him even as a backup. If he can start for us next year as the best option for the team, great, if not, keep him but have him be the backup to either Recker or d'Arnaud, if he is ready around that time.

*** FIRST BASE ***
If Ike Davis continues to be in the funk he is in, I honestly don't see him being around for too long. While I don't think the Mets will trade/release him, I see him being in the minors and working with the youth. I also don't think Josh Satin is our answer at first base even though he's been pretty good with us, I think he is more of a solid backup to a true starting first basemen. What do I suggest? All the talk about the Mets making some serious acquisitions in the offseason should help effect this position. We need to sign a quality name to first base, trade for one, do something. We need a household name to hold it down.

*** SECOND BASE ***
Daniel Murphy is on fire this year and I love what he brings to the team. He sometimes makes mistakes that costs us runs but he has been pretty good defensively for the most part. I have a funny feeling the Mets might actually trade him for some other positional players but I sure do hope they keep him and include him in the long term picture.

*** THIRD BASE ***
What more can I say? David Wright is our team captain and is having one of the best seasons of his career as our main third baseman. He will keep doing his thing and I don't see any reason to bring anyone else in. He's also not going anywhere and I seriously doubt they will trade him for anyone really. He is the main guy the Mets will be building around.

*** SHORTSTOP ***
Omar Quintanilla has been decent this year but I don't see him in the long term with the Mets. I hope Tejada goes back to being who he use to be, but since he's been on the DL this year and before that was playing pretty bad, the Mets should look to sign a quality SS to bring speed, leadoff hitting, and stealing bases back to this team. Kind of like when we had Jose Reyes, we need that speedy presence back on this team. Justin Turner has been pretty good as of late, but will he be our solution at SS? I doubt it but at least he can provide depth when needed.

*** LEFT FIELD ***
Absolutely love Eric Young Jr. and I definitely think the Mets should keep him and continue to have him be the hot bat we needed for the outfield. The minute he came to the Mets, he made an immediate impact and has been one of the few reasons why, outside of a Harvey or Wheeler start, you should watch the team play.

*** CENTER FIELD ***
I like Juan Lagares but I think he should be used as depth and not really a potential starter. Once again, this is one area the Mets need to spend some of their money on, we need at least one or two more quality outfielders. Guys who will hit, be very good defensively, and bring a sense of power to the team.

*** RIGHT FIELD ***
Personally, I would keep Marlon Byrd on the team for next year and beyond since he is pretty clutch when needed and overall has been a solid acquisition to the team. He has a good eye on the ball, is pretty patient at the plate, and has had a major hand in most of those late game rallies that won us some games.

*** STARTING PITCHERS ***
Obviously we have the great tandem of Harvey/Wheeler who we will keep and continue to build around. I would also keep Hefner, Gee, and am kind of on the fence with Torres. I think Torres needs more time in the minors until he is truly ready to dominate. Until then, I think the Mets in the offseason need to sign one, maybe two quality starting pitchers to the team. I have no idea if we will ever see SP Johan Santana back in a Mets uniform, so I can't count on him at all in being part of the long term plan for the Mets.

*** RELIEF PITCHERS ***
While they have improved slightly this season, we have absolutely no dominance when it comes to our bullpen. I do like Hawkins and his experience, Edgin is ok, Rice is alright, and Atchinson is serviceable. Out of all of our bullpen though, I think Aardsma needs more time in the minors and just isn't ready to perform in the major league level. Overall though, we need to sign at least one high quality arm for bullpen relief. I think if we added a strong arm to our bullpen, it'll equate to more wins, easily giving us more of a chance to compete in the NL East. We lost too many close games because honestly, our bullpen gave up one too many runs.

*** CLOSING PITCHERS ***
I like what Parnell brings to the table so we are fine here, he's not perfect, but I think he fits the closer role nicely for the team. I wouldn't really go after anyone to handle our closing duties.

Despite it all, I'm still going to watch my Mets continue to bring this season to a close. Hopefully we end the best way we can and start to do whatever is necessary to build around the gems we do have. Guys like Wright, Harvey, Wheeler, Murphy, Young, etc. I know it hurts to say this season isn't what I had hoped it would be from this past April, but one insight in all of this is never losing hope. Not this year, but in 2014 and beyond, I know better times are ahead for this team. We have a solid minor league system, we have quality guys on the roster now, and if you think about it, we are just a few missing pieces away from a high quality final product to compete day in, day out. It's going to happen and I know it all starts this offseason! Hopefully the Mets make wise choices (Please, don't pull another Jason Bay) and start thinking about what makes the most sense to start having winning records for 2014 and beyond!

Mack Ade – AM Report – 7-10-13 – Zach Dotson, Josh Satin, San Diego, Kris Benson, Biogenesis

 

I heard from ex-prospect and local hotshot, P Zach Dotson, who, so far, has made it a living being in the Mets extended camp:

zach Dotson ‏@_ZachDotson  @JohnMackinAde I'm 2 weeks away from being game ready

This is real good news for people like me that believe in this kid. 

                                                                                Giants sign Jeff Francoeur to minors deal  

James Preller -

In the professional ranks, it happens with draft picks. The guy taken in the 2nd Round will get a much longer look (read: opportunity to succeed) than the 12th Rounder. That’s life. It’s not exactly unfair, either, since the kid earned that slot through years of play. With the late draft pick, it’s the opposite; he begins with two proverbial strikes against him, almost no room for failure. That kind of player has to force his way into a team’s plans. The wonderful thing is that some of those late-bloomers develop a tough hide in the process. They compete harder, dig deeper, get tougher. They love proving the experts wrong. http://2guystalkingmetsbaseball.com/two-outliers-opportunity-knocks-softly-for-jeremy-hefner-josh-satin/

This was  a story about Josh Satin and Jeremy Hefner, two players I assume the Mets will do everything in their power to keep in their organization next season. Obviously, add these two to your 40-man. 

                                                                San Diego Padres club president Tom Garfinkel has resigned 

Word is that San Diego is now in the selling mode. What do they have out there to look for?

                                P Huston Street (0-4, 4.30)– assumption of $7mil 2014 contract

                                CF Cameron Maybin (.157 - DL) - $5.1/mil-2014, $7.1mil-2015, $8.1mil-2016

                                C Nick Hundley (.246) - $4mil-2014

                                OF Chris Denofria (.267) - $2.25mil-2014

                                LHP Cory Luebke (DL) - $3.125-2014, $5.357-2015

 

Former Mets pitcher Kris Benson's ex-wife Anna was arrested Monday after a bizarre incident in which she broke into his Georgia apartment with weapons and demanded money. According to the TMZ report, Anna had Kris at gunpoint and ordered him to pay her cash a day after a court order forced her to vacate the residence. She was wearing a bulletproof vest and also had a metal baton. Kris told her he would pay her but left to call the police instead. http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/backpage/former_mets_pitcher_benson_held_bagsmbKbalPfVmZwzjU8fL#ixzz2YY4Bx4ER

                                                My daughter went to college with Kris. Good guy, but just picked his women badly.

 

Officials have decided to slow down the process of handing out suspensions involving the Biogenesis Clinic mess in South Florida. Purists of the game wanted certain players (Nelson Cruz, Jhonny Peralta, Everth Cabrera, Bartolo Colon) from being prevented from playing in the upcoming all-star game, but investigators don’t want to rush this and screw things up.

It will happen when it happens, but what’s important here, is the fact that this is not going away, meaning, there will probably be a 50-game suspension for OF Cesar Puello, even if all he did was make an appointment and walk in the door.

I continue to be surprised that Puello hasn’t been sent to Vegas. I assume it’s so he can participate in the Binghamton playoffs and I also expect him to come to Queens in September as part of the add-on squad then. Look for the 50-games to take place at the beginning of next season.

 

Howard Megdel on Carlos Torres –

In the abstract, the Mets have the luxury of waiting until the end of the season to make decisions about Torres and 2014. But in a world where Bobby Parnell can fetch a significant return in trade, and the Mets badly need position players, how well Torres can step in is something the Mets would be better off knowing in weeks, not months, ahead of the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline. Let’s just wait on proclaiming Carlos Torres a bullpen mainstay. But don’t envy Mets decision-makers. They don’t have the luxury of waiting much longer. http://mets.lohudblogs.com/2013/07/09/how-real-is-carlos-torres/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

This sounds like a good plan, unless someone gets hurt and Torres could set in as an emergency starter for the remainder of the season.

3-5-13 – Omar Quintanilla, Mets OD-OF, Josh Satin, Hansel Robles

NYMets945 ‏@nymets945

With the way Brandon Hicks is playing I could see the mets DFA him and starting year with Omar Quintanilla on roster over him

       The first series of ‘roster cuts’ are going on right now (re: LAD Nick Evans) and the Mets list is, as usualy, late to come out. I could easily see Hicks as well as OF Cesar Puello (minors), P Carlos Torres (DFA) and P Gonzalez Germen (minors).

       There are other outfielder candidates for cuts (Brown, Hoffman), but the injury to Kirk Nieuwenhuis probably will hold that up for now.

The projected opening day Mets outfield has changed with the Nieuwenhuis injury.

       LF – a lock for Lucas Duda

       CF – Collin Cowgill

       RF – Marlon Byrd

       Subs: Mike Baxter, TBD*

*on the surface, this would be Jordany Valdespin, but he continues to play exclusively in the infield.

Josh Satin

"The guy's the best third baseman in the game, and I happen to be a New York Met. Even though that's probably my best position, it's not going to happen. You continue to work on it and try to be the best player you can at third base because you never know where you're going to end up. But you also have to try to do something else."

              This is the last year that Satin will play for the Mets. He will be a free after 2013 and will be able to take his resume on the road at the 2014 playing age of 28.

              So far, he brings a 5-year minor league batting average (2,036-AB) of .303. You would think the Mets could have found a home for this bat in the outfield, but going into this season, Satin has played 286 games on second, 167 on first, 78 on third, and two on short.

       He tried.

Hansel Robles

Adding a player to the 40-man roster straight out of the short-season New York Penn League really starts his clock in an aggressive manner. Every player gets three option years during which a Major League team can send a player who is on the 40-man roster down to the minor leagues without exposing him to waivers. Robles’ first option year will be in 2013 now that he is on the 40-man roster. If he starts in St. Lucie, Robles could, with a strong first half, end up in AA Binghamton. Then, he would be starting 2014, either in AA or AAA in the minors on option #2.

              There’s two problems here. One, you’ve put some additional internal pressure on a kid that hasn’t pitched for a full season team yet, and two, you’re trying to make up for the years lost before you signed this soon to be 22-year old.

            

              I still say this whole spring thing involving him was a showcase, but what do I know?

I May Be Wrong, But… Josh Satin, Matt Harvey, John Mincone, Adam Rubin

 • Rising Apple had a post on Tueday morning with the headline “Your Opening Day Third Baseman – Josh Satin?” Frankly, I didn’t even open the post, thinking it was just another creative topic during a long, boring off-season. I then checked the lineup and saw that Satin was starting… at third base. Hmm. You know what I think about Satin’s bat. It’s simply one of the best in the organization, but he’s been criticized for his defense since the day he put a Mets uniform on. I frankly thought he was a pretty good second baseman when he played in Savannah, but what do I know? Satin plays second, first base, third, and has dabbled in the outfield. A perfect utility resume.

 • Amit Batlani twitted that Matt Harvey told him that he has not spoken to Zack Wheeler yet. I mean, like, ever. Am I the only person that finds that strange? I know both of them are housed in different buildings in the complex, but don’t you think one of these guys would have reached out to the other by now? I mean, a burger at Duffy’s would go a long way, wouldn’t it?

 • The signing yesterday of LHP John Mincone has nothing to do with the Tim Byrdak surgery. This signing has been in the works for a while now and even Mincone twittered that the process took a while. Somebody in the Mets organization saw something here and my guess is the 22-year old will start off in extended camp come April. Then, look for him to stay in Florida with St. Lucie.

 • Adam Rubin reminded us Tuesday morning that the lack of depth on the newly-reduced salary team has already begun to bite the Mets in the ass this spring training. I agree with Rubin that any replacements will come from quick-fix non-prospects rather than rush the players in the organization that can being the turnaround of this organization in 2014. Folks, this is going to be a long, painful season if you don’t decide right now to just lay back and enjoy it. No pressure here. Just stay home, watch them on TV and don’t spend a penny with them until they get their act together.

I May Be Wrong, But… Injuries, Josh Satin, Terry Collins, Hitting

 • SS Ruben Tejada was the latest to come down with the injury bug and Terry Collins had enough with the questions from the beat mob. Hey Terry. That’s their job. They’re paid like 100th of what some of your ballplayers are paid to come to camp in proper condition. Every team goes through this every spring, and, if you look over to the right column, you’ll see there really isn’t that many people on the list. It’s going to be interesting to watch how Collins handles this season.

 • Josh Satin raised his chances of making the 25-man on Tuesday with a superb play at third base. He had to go out of bounds to catch the shot and took the time to post up his right foot so he would have both the traction and strength to throw to first. No one knows right now what the third base situation is going to be and plays like this definitely help.

 • Word from the peanut gallery is that Terry Collins was not pissed at the media. It was the trainers that got to him. Everybody is just being a cautious and Ruben Tejada complained after taking infield practice. Trainers game him an aspirin and the day off which didn’t sit well with TC. Still, sharing these thoughts with the beat mob is not the way to handle yourself in the majors. Look, you just can’t open your mouth like this publically. The reporters will tweet about it and the bloggers will get a woodie.

 • Forget the injuries and start worrying about the lack of hitting. So far, spring training has only produced one hitting story, Adam Loewen. There are obviously too many runs being given up by the pitchers, but Mets have not bunched their hits together effectively. Cuts should be coming down by Friday morning and you will start to see the regulars playing more innings.

New York Mets Spring Training: 10 Players to Watch - Part Two

In the first portion of this three part series, we examined three starting pitchers that need to be monitored closely this month. For the second part, we take a look at four more players. They will be divided into two bullpen pitchers and two bench players.


4) Bobby Parnell- Last season, Parnell was supposed to be the closer of the future. He had to share the job of ending games with Jason Isringhausen after the team traded K-Rod in July. He still may have the triple digit fastball to get the job done, but the 2011 season proved that he lacks the edge a closer so desperately needs.

With six blown saves in twelve chances last season, Parnell showed he doesn't have the metal to be the dominant closer. The team brought in two pitchers (one will be discussed in a minute) to try and fill that very big void. So what happens to Parnell? It will depend on how manager Terry Collins decides to use him.

If he platoons him with Jon Rauch as the setup man in the eight inning, it will most likely be when Rauch fills in for the new closer Frank Francisco in the ninth, when Rauch needs a rest or when the match up favors Parnell and the Mets. Otherwise, his 3.64 ERA, 60 hits and 29 runs in 59 innings pitched earned him a shared role this season again.


5) Frankie Francisco- The new acquisition to fill the ninth inning role left behind from the departure of Francisco Rodriguez is aptly named Frankie Frank. With the same name twice, the Mets hope he is twice as good as their options in the second half last season. Francisco had 17 saves last season in 21 opportunities for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2011.

He shared the role with Jon Rauch last season. Therefore, sharing it again this season with the same pitcher but for another team should not be that different. His comfort level should be solid entering this year for that reason alone. Normally, when a player enters a new clubhouse, there will be a period of adjustment. In this case, he will see at least one familiar face.

The issue to watch with him in March will be his health. He has missed 94 games in the past three years, including last season. He has not pitched a full season in a very long time. The Mets coaching staff will be trying to get him better conditioned to prepare to handle a full-time closer role as healthy as possible.


6) Josh Satin- Last September, the Mets and their fans were enamored with the arrival of Josh Satin. It was almost a Lee Mazzilli-esque type scenario in that Satin was embraced immediately. The trouble is that he did not do too well in that debut. The former minor league player of the year hit .200 with five hits, three RBI and one double in 15 games.

Hardly impressive. Still, it was just a small sample of his ability. He did well in the field and started to pick it up offensively at the end of his stint. This season, he is expected by many to make the team as a bench player when they break from Spring Training. If he has a bad month, he very well may not make the cut.

If he has a great showing, he can solidify himself on the roster and perhaps compete for a starter spot later in the season. With all that said, Satin is a players capable of fielding multiple positions and is the type of player Terry Collins cherishes.

The main question with him this month will be how he has matured as a hitter. Will that experience last season help his confidence or hurt it? Time will tell but we will find out in the next few weeks.


7) Kirk Neiuwenhuis- After a shoulder injury shut him down last season in Triple-A, Neiuwenhuis is healthy and eager to prove he is ready to live up to the comparisons to Jim Edmonds. That is not too unfair of a comparison. He has tremendous athleticism and range in the field to go with solid gap power at the plate.

The problem is that unless Andres Torres falters in Spring Training and he explodes onto the scene, he will most likely begin the year in Buffalo. Reserve outfielder Scott Hairston is still battling his oblique injury, but even if Haiston misses time, Neiuwenhuis will not be a backup.

The team wants him to get used to playing full-time as he will most likely have that role at some point in Queens. Therefore, Triple-A makes the most sense. The future is not too far off, however. We could be talking about him this time next year as the starting CF.

His only job this March will be to make the Mets decision that more difficult.




****Look for the final part tomorrow****

I May Be Wrong, But… Roster Opening – RHH OF/Back-up CF

People are telling me that the Scott Hairston injury can easily prevent him from heading to Queens in April. Hairston is your right-handed backup outfielder, plus the only player currently on the 25-man that legitimately can backup Andres Torres in centerfield.

There’s not many options ( and don’t get hung up by these stats because there are so few at-bats right now):

RHH Juan Lagares – (.000/.000/.000/.000) – The Mets need to play this guy in center during the spring to see if he has the range.

RHH Vinny Rotinno – (000/.000/.000/.000) – definitely not a center fielder (and we have already learned this short ST season that he has limitations at third).

LHH Kirk Nieuwenhuis – .250/.250/.250/.500 – The Captain may bat left, but he’s the only possible centerfield replacement if Torres went down (it’s just too early to consider Matt den Dekker).

RHH Josh Satin – (.600/.600/.600/1.200) – this is the bat the Mets need, but he’s never played a game in center.

RHH Cesar Puello – (.500/.500/.500/1.0000 -played some center today in a split schedule game.

Summation:  Too early to call.

The Keepers - #26 - 2B-OF Josh Satin

26.    Josh Satin 

Satin was drafting in the 6th round of the 2008 draft by the New York Mets.

Satin was drafted at 23 years old, so he’s moving as fast as he can. After signing in 2008, he played for Kingsport (.583/.615/1.000/1.615… okay, it was only 12 at bats) and Brooklyn (.280/.350/.462/.812).

2009 brought Savannah (.284/.385/.418/.803 in 440 at bats, 7-HR, 60-RBI) and a taste of St. Lucie (.364/.464/.591/1.055).

His 2-year professional totals are: .292/.384/.446/.830 

Forecast:  It’s obvious that Satin was a good draft pick and the kid can definitely get on base. We should see a little more power this year, but his biggest problem is the fact that Reese Havens is currently being converted to a second baseman in the Winter Leagues. Havens looks timed perfectly for the end of the Luis Castillo contract, which leaves Satin where? 

I wrote on Feb 10: - Josh Satin – I didn’t spend much time with Josh last year in Savannah (hell, I didn’t spend much time with anyone there…). There’s no rush for Satin, who will settle into various minor league levels for a couple more years. He was tagged early on as a poor defensive infielder which just isn’t true.

5-27-11: - 2B/1B Josh Satin was asked to play AA this spring so he could get more time in the field. Seems the club had been enjoying his time as a DH in the system, but a boy does have to field in the majors, right? Josh said fine, and went back to where he hit .308 last season, has hit .305 so far this season, and has only committed seven errors playing both first and second. Reese Havens should be done with his St. Lucie rehab sometime this week and Satin needs to pack his backs for Buffalo. He deserves it.

Cutnpaste: - Lenny Dykstra, Chris Young, Josh Satin, Zack Wheeler, Mike Nickeas

In his first sit-down interview since copping a plea in his grand theft auto case, Lenny Dykstra — who earned his nickname as a hard-playing, hard-partying Met during the team’s wild days in the 1980s — says he learned his destructive addictions and major league ego cost him his fortune, his marriage and his freedom. “I really for the first time understand humility,” he said Thursday while smoking a cigarette on the patio of his private bungalow at The Hills rehab center. “It’s not everybody else’s fault. It’s not a coincidence that I’m here. It happened because I was using drugs and alcohol. It was a reality check.”Wearing a fleece sweatshirt and a court-ordered ankle monitor, Dykstra said his demons were wine, vodka, pain pills, party drugs and the rush he got blowing through his millions. www.nydn.com

For those who can remember that far back, Chris Young was the key “low-risk, high-reward” signing the thrifty Mets made last winter. Oodles of beat writers, bloggers, and fans couldn’t praise the move enough. After all, when healthy, Chris Young was an outstanding pitcher — a legitimate #2 starter on a championship club. Young would top a rotation that included the surprising R.A. Dickey, the improving Mike Pelfrey, and the poised-for-breakout-season Jonathon Niese. Further, that formidable foursome would be led by superstar Johan Santana, who was sure to be joining the team by June — or the All-Star Break, at the latest. http://www.metstoday.com/7223/2011-mets-evaluations/2011-evaluation-chris-young

11-25-11: - http://risingapple.com/2011/11/25/2011-season-in-review-josh-satin  - Defensively, Josh Satin is kind of like Daniel Murphy-he can play a bunch of positions, but not that well.  In the minors, he spent the most time at second base (250 games) while also seeing action at first (80 games) and third (68 games).  In the Majors, Satin played eight games at first base and one at third.  To quote Toby Hyde of MetsMinorLeagueBlog, “He started playing third, although he doesn’t have the arm for the position. He doesn’t really have the power for first, where he played in the big leagues.” Hyde goes on to say that he sees Satin “as the 25th guy,” especially if he can learn to play left field.  Given that he doesn’t hit for power or play any position particularly well, the bench seems like the most logical fit.  He could serve as a right-handed pinch hitter and stay in the game to play defense if necessary.  While he might not make a huge impact on the team, Satin provides an internal candidate to fill a utility role and add some much needed depth to the club.

11-26-11: - http://seedlingstostars.com  - Zack Wheeler - Wheeler made some nice strides this season, and his arsenal of pitches suggests that he could evolve into a well-above-average starting pitcher, but he’ll need to prove a) that he can hold up for a full season and b) that he can maintain his control for a whole season. His immediate improvement upon switching organizations is a positive sign, and he looks like a great acquisition for a Mets team that is still building toward the future. There’s obvious upside here, and if he can erase the two lingering concerns about him in 2012, Wheeler could become one of the top pitching prospects in the game.

11-26-11: - http://www.metstoday.com/7226/11-12-offseason/2011-evaluation-mike-nickeas  - As much as I like Mike Nickeas, I was completely stunned that the Mets included him on the offseason 40-man roster; did they really think that another team would jump at the chance to pick a 29-year-old, .180-hitting, third-string catcher in the Rule 5 Draft? Seems to me to be a waste of a roster spot, since there are at least two dozen catchers exactly like him throughout AAA. That’s not to say I’m upset; in fact, I’m pleased to know that Nickeas is likely to be in Port St. Lucie come February, and presumably part of the organization’s catching depth in 2012. My guess is he’ll be exactly what he was in ’11: a defensive-minded, backup backstop who can be shuffled between AAA and the bigs as necessary. And within the next 3-5 years, we may see Nickeas move into a minor-league managing post — perhaps in preparation toward a more successful MLB career.

The Second Base Race

While the main debate remains whether the Mets will re-sign Jose Reyes and/or trade David Wright, I want to talk about a position with options. The Mets have plenty of options for who will end up playing second base, let's look at some pros and cons.

Daniel Murphy:
Murphy can hit, he doesn't have a TON of power but he can hit. There is hardly a soul alive that doesn't think Murphy has a legit MLB bat. There are PLENTY of people who don't think he has an MLB position. The fact is he's played okay at first base, reasonably well at third, passably at second... and not so great in the outfield. Before the season I was one of the people who picked Murphy to beat out Castillo, Emaus and Turner for the starting job based on his bat. I was not at all surprised when he wound up there after a few weeks.

Pros - Murphy's bat is what makes us fans clamor for him getting into the starting lineup. He hits for average with some solid power and very good contact.

Cons - Murphy is not a natural fielder. He makes most of the plays but will not do so well and WILL lead to errors no matter where you play him.

Odds - 10:1 (Murphy's biggest issue isn't his glove, it's that he's not viewed as a starter. Some bloggers will talk about the need for defense up the middle, but ESPECIALLY if Reyes and Wright are going away, the Mets NEED to pump as much offense into the lineup as possible.)

Ruben Tejada:
It's no secret that I'm not a huge Tejada fan. Ruben's bat does nothing to excite me and he's always struck me as a solid backup IF. He does show flashes of contact at the plate, but doesn't provide power or speed in such a way that I groan when I think of him as a starting everyday player. Ruben gets his support based on his outstanding glove work which gets rave reviews at SS and 2B. A big thing to consider is that if Reyes leaves town he has NO chance of starting at second as he's almost guaranteed to start at SS.

Pros - The biggest pro is his glove but I guess you could also love his age as it might allow him growth. Any way I cut it, I can't see that meaning power or speed... which translates into minimal production.

Cons - Tejada may occasionally hit for contact which keeps his BA above .260, but his power is non-existent and his speed is minimal.

Odds - 4:1 (Tejada has a good shot to win the starting 2B job IF Reyes is back with the team. If Reyes is not I would say he has NO shot... as he'll be the starting SS.)

Justin Turner:
Big Red was a big, pleasant surprise for the Mets in 2011. He doesn't have a ton of speed or power... like Tejada but he's got double power and seemed to get a ton of clutch hits. In the field he's not exactly a dynamo with the glove and leaves something to be desired, but he CAN handle 3rd, 2nd and 1st. The fact remains that Turner strikes almost everyone as a backup IF. He DOES do more with the bat than Tejada and he DOES have more fielding chops than Murphy but does any of that make him a SOLID starter?

Pros - Jeterlike intangibles? How else can you quantify that he simply seemed to collect BIG hits.

Cons - Completely average. He doesn't do anything that is THAT impressive.

Odds - 6:1 (If Reyes is gone, he has a VERY good chance of at least starting the year on second. His biggest competition would be Jordany Valdespin and my bet would be that Terry would prefer to avoid the immaturity issues that Jordany brings to the table.)

Josh Satin:
Most bloggers love Josh. He's not supposed to be anything special but the guy keeps hitting. I don't think he's a great option to start at 2nd, he's like Justin Turner with less MLB experience. For that reason he's really an after-thought in the race for the position. At the same time he will be a part of the bench and from what I've seen him do in the minors, I expect he'll be useful in whatever his role ends up. BECAUSE of that I think he could work his way into Terry's good graces for a time-share at second by the half-way point of 2012.

Pros - Josh Satin has a GREAT eye. I don't know if it will mean a ton of walks in the majors as pitchers will not be trying to pitch around him, but we can expect he'll not swing at bad pitches.

Cons - Defense is not his strongest suit and though I don't think he'd hurt us, I can already hear the people calling in and saying defense is the most important thing up the middle.

Odds - 15:1 (The odds are not good that he gets ANY starting position, but he SHOULD make the roster.

Jordany Valdespin:
I like Valdespin a lot, but I'm not a manager and I don't have to deal with discipline. Of all the candidates his glove is among the best, his power is among the best and he has the most speed. Should Reyes leave... Jordany WILL be with the Mets as they need the legs in the lineup. He's not the smartest base runner, but that will come with time. The knock against Jordany is his work ethic. Terry loves gritty guys who will kill themselves for their team. Jordany has been disciplined by minor league teams multiple times and that is a bad sign.

Pros - Raw talent is all in the kid's favor. He's got a glove nearly as good as Tejada's, power similar to Murphy and more speed than anyone else on the depth chart for second.

Cons - He's a bit of a problem in terms of discipline.

Odds - 13:1 (He's a bit of a long-shot to make the team unless Reyes leaves town. Then he's a longshot to NOT be the starting 2B.)

Reese Havens:
Reese is the wild card. He's still the 2B of the future and he's got the skills to blow most of the other players away. The issue with Reese is the same issue he's had for years. He cannot stay healthy. I love that he did not go to the AFL and instead is focusing on conditioning and weight training to get him healthy for 2012-13. It makes him a longer shot to win the job this spring, but if Wright and Reyes are gone it's going to be hard to keep him out of Queens. We could have a redux of the 2010 Ike Davis situation very quickly.

Pros - GREAT bat. The guy commands the plate, has a good and powerful line drive swing and plays reasonably good defense.

Cons - HEALTH! If he cannot stay on the field he's useless.

Odds - 20:1 (It's a long shot for him to win the job but a longer shot for him not to earn it if he's healthy.)