1/15/14

Are the 2014 Mets a Better Team on Paper? (Third Basemen)




     So far we have improvement at the C and SS positions, same lackluster production at 1B, and same solid production at 2B. What can we expect from 3B?

(***Note this takes into account the team as it is today. Steamer Projections are extrapolated out to 162 games for the starter only.)

2013
Players: David Wright, Wilmer Flores, Justin Turner, Josh Satin, Zach Lutz, Omar Quintanilla
Stats:.290 AVG/.365 OBP/.459 SLG, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 17 SB, 35 2B, 6 3B, 71 BB, 130 K
(4th in MLB OPS)

     There's no question that the Captain is one of the best 3B in the game today. Despite playing in only 112 games this season he finished in the Top 5 in AVG, OBP, SLG, and WAR and 1st in the MLB in triples and SBs. In fact, Wright was in line to finish what would have been a career season as he was projected to finish the year worth 8.6 Wins Above Replacement. Its the replacements after him that drag the position down as Turner, Satin, and Lutz filled the void until Flores was promoted, who then played with an injured ankle the rest of the season.

2014
Starter: David Wright
Steamer Projections: .289 AVG/.376 OBP/.476 SLG, 22 HR, 91 RBI, 16 SB, 83 BB, 123 K

     The team missed out on what would have been a career year for Wright. Last time he topped 8.0+ WAR he regressed slightly but still ended up posting a 6.8 WAR season with more power. STEAMER believes history will repeat itself but don't be surprised if Wright has another ridiculous season Top 3 3B season.

Verdict: Push with some upside- Come On.....Its David Wright.

Mack - Okay, here's where I will start to get some flak.

Wright turned 31 this year and just got married (whatever that means). Sadly, IMO, you are going to begin to see the slow deterioration of the one player that has given this team any level of respect over the last five years.

It may not be that obvious in 2014, but it will begin. The one hope here is guys like Chris Young and Curtis Granderson will create a situation where Wright will get more balls down the pipe to hit.

Still, I don't see 2014 as being a banner year for Wright. Under 20-HRs... under 75-RBIs.

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