'The War Room' - Drugs

There are now eight players in the major leagues that have been busted for some form of illegal substances in 2012.

Now we find out that you only get a 25 game suspension for amphetamines, while steroids are still 50.

And let's not forget that you don't get suspended until your second failed test.

Question:  What changes would you demand the next time you go into a negotiation with the player's union regarding this issue?

MLB Dirt - 2013 Houston Astros Top 16 Prospects

Player	Comments
1	Carlos Correa (18-SS)	The Astros shocked the world when they took Correa first overall in last years draft but I was a fan of the pick. Correa has the potential to be one of the leagues best and an all-star regularly. He has good quick hands and strong arm but I think we eventually see him grow out of shortstop and shift over to third. He has a big physical athletic build and is a good athlete. He has a special bat and should hit for a good average at the next level and put up impressive power numbers. He has the highest ceiling in the system and the potential to star in the middle of the Astros lineup. -Michael Schwartze
2	Jonathan Singleton (21-1B)	He can flat out hit & has great discipline and patience for a kid his age. He has incredible raw power & quick hands but struggles against LHP although hitting will never be a problem for him. I have my doubts about him defensively, even at 1B. He was slow moving in all directions but he did pick balls well. Even if he is below-average at 1B his bat should more than make up for the poor defense. -Jonathan C. Mitchell
3	George Springer (23-OF)	There is a lot to like about Springer’s game. He flashes the tools to develop into a 5 tool player with an interesting combo of power and speed. He has explosive bat speed helping him have above average power potential but his approach at the plate and swing need to be worked on. He has the defensive skills to stick in center field long term which really adds to his value. Springer has the tools to be an impact player and potential all-star but he’ll need to become more consistent at the plate to reach that ceiling. -Michael Schwartze

for the rest of the list... 

http://mlbdirt.com/2012/11/27/2013-houston-astros-top-16-prospects/

BPN - 2013 Arizona Diamondbacks Top 15 Prospects

1. Archie Bradley – RHP (Last Year’s Rank: 1)Bradley’s 2012 season was very hit or miss and showcased just how raw he is. His fastball and curveball came as advertised, with his heater sitting in the 93-95 mph range and reaching as high as 97-98 when he reached back for more. His curveball was another plus pitch at times, with similar potential to his fastball, possibly earning future 70 grades. There was a lot of focus on throwing more strikes and improving his change-up both of which made modest progress throughout the year. A potential frontline starter, Bradley is very risky but he could make an enormous leap at High-A in 2013.

2. Tyler Skaggs – LHP (3)Skaggs breezed through Double- and Triple-A in 2012 and debuted in the big leagues in August, making six starts before the end of the year. While he was roughed up in the big leagues, Skaggs offers a quality three-pitch mix, all of which he is willing to throw in any count. His fastball parks in the low-90s and his curveball is a true weapon that can generate swings and misses. Skaggs is an easy number three starter at this point and there are scouts that see a low-end number two on the horizon.

3. Trevor Bauer – RHP (2)Bauer’s raw stuff is plenty good. He has a plus fastball and a curveball that draws occasional grades even better than that. His slider, change-up and splitter are all useable offerings that round out his arsenal and give him the ability to work through lineups several times. His deep arsenal is also part of his problem as he doesn’t pitch off his fastball enough and struggles to establish command of his two best pitches early in games. His attitude was drawn into question this year and there are rumblings about him falling out of favor with the organization. Like Skaggs, Bauer easily projects as a number three starter, but he will have to make some changes to his approach to reach that projection.


for the rest of the list... 

http://baseballprospectnation.com/2012/11/28/2013-arizona-diamondbacks-top-15-prospects/

BA - Top 10 Los Angeles Prospects

TOP TEN PROSPECTS

1. Kaleb Cowart, 3b 2. Nick Maronde, lhp 3. C.J. Cron, 1b 4. Mike Clevinger, rhp 5. Austin Wood, rhp 6. Randal Grichuk, of 7. Taylor Lindsey, 2b 8. R.J. Alvarez, rhp 9. Mark Sappington, rhp 10. Alex Yarbrough, 2b

for the rest of the list...

http://ht.ly/2tsfcY 

Q and A - More Myers, Throw in Flores

Gary Seagren asks: Hi Mack, Given the Wright signing and the recent Mets/ K.C. rumors would you include Flores with Dickey to land say Myers and another prospect or two. I really don't want to trade Neise and Flores real position is third. Comments please, Gary Seagren.

Mack:  Hey Gary.

I see the reverse of what you are saying. I think a deal for either Niese or Dickey can produce someone like Myers… and another player as well. Both these guys are quality, time tested major league pitchers.

One is a young lefty with a cheap contract and the other is a 20-game Cy Young winner. They are worth much more individually for a deal similar to the Carlos Beltran-Zack Wheeler swap.

We’ve spent a lot of time on Wil Myers. I’m not even sure at this point if I was the guy that started all these rumors. Kansas City does not want to trade him, but that doesn’t mean they won’t. They need another quality starter and there are only so many out there right now. The Mets have Dickey, though I’m sure the Royals would rather have Niese.

They have enough talent in their current outfield to get then close to the playoffs, but they lack one seasoned starter that can hold the fort down until one of their many talented pitching prospects mature. They’ve been burned before dishing out big money for FA pitchers and neither of these two guys will break their bank.

As I said in another post, Dickey brings to the table at least ten more wins to a team that won’t have  that without him in their lineup. Go add ten more wins to the last four Mets seasons and do the math. That’s a big number.

No, my guess you can get a player like Myers + another minor league ‘B’ prospect for either of these guys.

Regarding Wilmer Flores, wow, that’s a whole different post right now!

You have to believe that the three saddest Mets right now are Flores, Jefry Marte, and Zach Lutz. Third base is closed, thank you (and, if you’re wondering, Daniel Murphy is the backup there in case of a Wright injury).

There are no secrets anymore in baseball. You can’t hide a flaw in someone’s game. Flores can’t play short, can’t run (forget the outfield), and is blocked until 2021 at third. Very few American League teams play rookies as a DH, so that’s not available either.

Sure, I would throw in Flores for the right deal, but it would take an outfielder like Myers and another quality player (OF, C, RP, SP) that can slot into Queens in 2014 latest.

The Mets need to sacrifice a minor league infield in 2013. Flores needs to play either 1B or 2B somewhere so he either has a future value to this team, or a more tradable value to another team. He would fit perfectly into Binghamton at first base, but Danny Muno would have to be held back at 2B to play him there. I hate experiments during the season, but it has to be done. He’s played the entire winter ball season at third, which has done this team no good at all.

This is a story without an end yet.

Q and A - Wright, den Dekker, Winter Ball

Mark Mokris asks:

Hi Mack, well it looks like David Wright's  contract will be finalized and officially announced at the winter meetings.  I think I was right that this was all about Seth Levinson and ACES maximizing the public relations by this being officially announced at the winter meetings.  My guess is that the Mets got the nod that they had the parameters of a deal in place a couple of days ago and tried to keep the lid on it until winter meetings.  Should be an interesting day with all of the arbitration decisions today.  I suspect that the Mets will fill need at catcher from non-tendered catchers and look to trade for at least one outfielder.  I know that Matt Den Dekker was supposed to go to the fall instructional league to help him with his strikeouts do you have any updates whether the Mets made any major changes to his swing?  Any ideas who else was working on things there? Would you rank the Winter Leagues.  Is the Dominican Republic or the Venezualan league the better league and are they the equivalent to AA or AAA?  Ok have to get to court.  Have a good day.

Mack:  Morning counselor.

I think you were right about the Levinson drama. Wright obviously decided well over a week ago that he was going to finish his career as a Met. All that had to be done was to work out the fine tuning. In addition, the Levinson’s really needed something to make the baseball community forget how badly they handled the Melky situation. Wright is a super loyal guy, both to his team and his agent, so I’m sure he allowed this circus to happen the way it did.

I’m writing this while working from Midnight-7am, early Saturday morning. There’s no Internet access here so I can’t follow my Twitter feed and see the ARB names coming down. The Mets continue to take offers for either Jon Niese or RA Dickey for a star outfielder. That is their main goal at these meetings, and, if they don’t get a decent deal done, they will resign Dickey and we’ll still have a great rotation to fall back on.

I expect to see at least one more outfielder, a catcher, and a couple of relief pitchers come out of the meetings, either through minor trades, free agent signs, or the Rule V. Nothing here will knock your socks off, but it will give the Mets immediate depth for the 2013 season.

Regarding the fall instruction leagues, I’m going down to St. Lucie in two weeks so I’ll know more then. Trust me, den Dekker is being worked with somewhere. Both he and Kirk Nieuwenhuis are ‘next up’ and things would work a lot smoother if one of these guys turned out to be for real.

Regarding the Winter Leagues, I consider the Arizona Fall League the premier event followed by the DWL (I really miss the Hawaii League). The Venezuelan, Puerto Rico, and Mexican Leagues are all sub-par, with Mexico pulling up the rear.  It’s very hard to compare then to either the AA or AAA level because they are littered with players either long past their prime or others that simply have no major league affiliation at all. We pundits rely very little on the stats here, but really get concerned when we see a poor performance by a key minor leaguer (i.e. Cory Mazzoni).

Hope this helps.

Q and A - Wil Myers

Stacy and Steve asked:

Hey Mack. Glad you’re doing better, and have your sense of humor back. Question for you. If the Mets can and do get Wil Myers, would you put him back behind the plate? Would you let him start in Vegas catching 6 days a week, and hopefully be ready around the All-star game? Or just put him in Right field for the next 10 years? Always curious how you see things.

Mack:  

Hey guys. Always great to hear from you.

Myers is a natural catcher but those days are gone. He never was known for being great defensively and a past knee injury probably prevents him from squatting that much in the future. Ironically, his worst year offensively was his first as an outfielder (2011 – AA, .254/.353/.393), but he lost a month to the knee injury and just never recovered that season.

All his problems went away last season.

Look, I really don’t think this deal will be done. It would be crazy for him to sit on the bench and let Jeff Francoeur play, but stranger deals have been made. Let’s remember that the Mets are offering the current Cy Young winner. That’s worth at least a player like Myers plus another prospect to boot.

 What he isn’t is a centerfielder He projects out as a right fielder like most ex-catchers. He still has a lot to learn out there, but he’s no Daniel Murphy. And, he can hit the snot out of the ball. I’m sure the Royals are trying to trade Frenchy during the winter meetings, but Francoeur would never produce a quality pitcher like Dickey in exchange.

We’re going to have to wait this one out, but, if it happens, the 2013 Mets could overnight become quite competitive. They would still have around $10mil to spend on another outfielder and could re-sign Mike Pelfrey at a reduced amount to step right back into the rotation. And, let’s not forget Zack Wheeler.

One more thing… the best part of re-signing David Wright is probably a promise to put better players in the lineup both in front of him and up next. The current Mets lineup doesn’t scare anyone, but add Myers and one more quality bat and now you’re starting to look like San Francisco. Dominate pitching plus pop from 3-6. That wins you two World Series in the past three years.

Q and A - Catcher... Flores or Soto

Mark Mokris asks:

Hi Mack, assuming that the Mets decide to go the non-tender route to address their catcher situation who is the better fit Jesus Flores who is a former Mets farmhand, or Geovanny Soto, the former Cub and current Ranger?  Neither have been let go yet but they are both more than likely going to be let go.  I think I would lean toward Flores but I wanted to get your take.

Mack: 

Hey Mark. Tough to say. I really don’t like either one. In fact, I would probably try and resign Kelly Shoppach simply because there isn’t much out there available (I can’t believe how much money Russell Martin got from the Pirates).

I would like to think we have seen the worst of Josh Thole. I do expect him to rebound some this upcoming season and return to a BA in the .260-.275 range, which would be good enough during a season where most of the emphasis is needed to start rebuilding the outfield. Thole will be tendered; however, any long term future with the Mets could lie on whether or not RA Dickey remains a Met.

If I had to pick one of the two names you have thrown out, it would be Soto over Flores. For 2013, go with a good defensive catcher and don’t look at the batting average.

Now, since you brought up the position… watch for Juan Centeno. He should play Las Vegas along with Mike Nickeas this spring and he is becoming quite the successful minor league hitter. Cam Maron is another name to key an eye on and the Mets might… I say might… be developing their own future catcher starting in 2014.

Mack Stuff – Adam Rubin, Jon Niese, Kingsport, RA Dickey

The Cleveland Indians have signed P Fernando Nieve to a minor league contract.

The Houston Astros have claimed P Phillip Humber fro CWS

Adam Rubin reports that the Mets are eyeing OF Ryan Ludwick, Cody Ross,  Angel Pagan and C Jesus Flores and Martin Maldonado.

                -the list could be worse… here are last year’s stat line on each one:

Ludwick – 33/yrs old – 2012: .275/.346/.531/.877, 26-HR, 80-RBI, 422,-AB, 97-K

Ross – 31/yrs old – 2012: .267/.326/.481/.807, 22-HR, 81-RBI, 476-AB, 129-K, 42-BB

Pagan – 30/yrs old - .288/.338/.440/.778, 8-HR, 56-RBI, 605-AB, 97-K, 48-BB

Flores – 27/yrs old - .213/.248/.329/.577, 277-AB, 6-HR, 26-RBI, 59-K, 13-BB

                         (Remember that great 2006 season in St. Lucie: 21-HR, 70-RBI)

Maldonado – 25-yrs old - .266/.321/.408/.729, 8-HR, 30-RBI, 233-AB, 56-K, 17-BB

                -First of all, I can’t see the Mets re-visiting Pagan for a third time. You would have to think by now that the last thing he would want to do is come back to a team that didn’t want him two other times.

                -Both Ross and Ludwick offer you Duda-like stats, which are okay, but I don’t see either one of them breaking out and becoming a star hitter, especially at the age they will play next season. Yes, it is better than the Mets have now, but neither project as long term solution.

                -The only way the Mets get themselves a star or potential star outfielder, for the 2013 and beyond season, is through a trade for either Jon Niese or RA Dickey. You’re going to have to give up something prime to get something prime in return.

                -Regarding Flores, I make it a habit to follow ex-Mets minor leaguers that go on to other teams, and, frankly, Flores has never produced at the major league level. We all thought the loss of him in the Rule V draft was a big Omar Minaya mistake, but it has turned out different. It’s amazing how one broken wrist can change a man’s path in life.

                -I know very little about Maldonado. All I want in 2013 is a good defensive catcher that can platoon with Josh Thole. The Mets are not going to solve their long term catching needs during this off-season. Pick the guy that can handle the pitchers.

Matt Cerrone – “This is why I still believe Jon Niese is significantly more likely to get traded next week than anyone else on the roster, which is something I’ve been saying for nearly a year. I think they’ll do it if he can deliver a legit, major-league bat, like a Justin Upton or a Wil Myers. However, the Mets won’t move Niese if the offers continue to be weak.”

                -Niese has become a much sort after young man. Like I said, he’s young, cheap, and has already produced major league stats he can be proud of. Every team needs another lefty that throws like this.

                I sort of agree with Matt. Neise will get many more inquiries than RA Dickey and I believe he will attract the kind of bat the Mets can build an outfield around (remember, when Sandy Alderson was asked this week what he thought of his outfield, he barked back: “what outfield?”) but I still hang on to that dream rotation (Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Niese, Rafael Montero, Michael Fulmer) I want to see in 2015.  

                I hope Alderson sticks to his guns and only offers up Dickey for a quality outfielder. I mean, the guy did win 20-games and the Cy Young award. Not every team is going to want a 38-year old pitcher, but Dickey is different and he can be the difference between almost making the playoffs (Red Sox) and going all the way.

                Either way you go, it will create an immediate hole in your 2013 rotation, which could be filled with a late signing on Mike Pelfrey, or a continuation of what Jenrry Mejia is doing in winter ball. He is being used as a starter and he’s putting up great numbers.

                Please let Cerrone be wrong here. I don’t want to lose Niese

“The New York Mets today announced that they will directly manage the Kingsport Mets (Appalachian League) business and facilities operations at Hunter Wright Stadium. Mets Director of Florida Operations Paul Taglieri, in conjunction with Mets Vice President of Facilities Karl Smolarz, will oversee the operations in Kingsport – including corporate partnerships, ticket sales, and marketing.  Taglieri will also continue his responsibilities at the Mets Florida headquarters in Port St. Lucie.”

                This is great news. Kingsport has been kind of the forgotten affiliate in the system, though it has been run well by its General Manager. What they haven’t done was ever hire a PR guy and they never send out pre or post-game information to the press (neither did St. Lucie until this past year and the GCL info also doesn’t go out on the Internet).

                One of the key words in the press release is ‘facilities’ and that’s where the real problem exists. There simply is no decent drainage on the field and puddles have remained up to 72 hours after a decent rain. Savannah had the same problems a few years ago, but new owners there tore the field up and replaced it on top of a state-of-the-art drainage system. This is what Kingsport needs and, hopefully, the Mets will invest the money needed here.

Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com hears that Dickey will accept a two-year contract that would presumably begin after 2013 (Twitter links). Now, Rubin writes, it’s just a question of agreeing on an appropriate annual salary. Mets people seem confident they’ll complete a deal with Dickey, according to Rubin.  (Andy Martino - “A deal is not close between Mets and Dickey at the moment. But as team showed with Wright this week, they can get aggressive quickly”.

                It’s nice to see that these guys are on the same page. Look, you can’t sign Dickey until after the Winter Meetings end. You have to find out his value.

                I’ve attended many conventions over the years. Deals are done in hallways, over a lunch in the hotel snack bar, and even elevators. I remember that Mel Karmazin, then President of Infinity Broadcasting, would wait and pull off a mega-deal to purchase a radio station during the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) convention every year. That’s why you have these meetings. A General Manager may land at the airport, thinking he has a deal worked out for an SP, only to find out that the guy signed with another team during the first day of the convention. You (the GM of the Mets) run into him on the second day and he asks about Jon Niese. You say no and you both move on, but by the third day, he’s sort of desperate and the name RA Dickey sounds really good (especially if all you want is two top prospects that haven’t played a lick of major league ball yet).

                Remember the famous words of Steve Phillips… “prospects get you fired…”. Think Brad Holt, who was once untouchable. Dickey has the ability to produce for a team 10 more victories than they would have without him being in the rotation. He dominates at least that many games each year. 10 more victories makes most also-rans a playoff team, and the revenue generated by playoff games more than makes up for the investment.

                Please don’t sign this guy until the week is over. You have no idea what might be available right now.