Mack’s Morning Report – 8-3 – Merandy Gonzalez, Cold Stove, Tomas Nido, Addison Reed

Good morning.

Merandy Gonzalez –

            I really don’t like this deal.

Normally, I’m the first to tell you that the first role of prospect chips is to produce trades for established major league baseball players that have proven they can be successful at the major league level. But, two top prospects for a 30+ relief pitcher that is going to cost you around $8.5mil next year in his last year before free agency?

And trading Merandy Gonzales? Really? Guys, he was one of the top three SP prospects in your pipeline.

I guarantee this one will come back at us in spades, unless we manage to re-negotiate a couple more years for the services of AJ Ramos.

Cold Stove -

Here’s the Hot Stove tally –

We get A.J. Ramos for around $8.5mil next year. We lose Lucas Duda for more if he stayed.

We get RP Drew Smith and lose SP Merandy Gonzalez and OF Ricardo Cespedes… but first base opens for Dominic Smith.

We get three top 30 prospects from Boston (all relievers: Gerson Bautista, Jamie Callahan, Stephen Nogosek) for the expiring Addison Reed

Tomorrow's 'Talkin' Baseball' question asks the Mack's Mets writers what they think about the results of the Hot Stove season that ended on Monday. 

I'm giving you an advanced look at mine.

First, I take out all the expiring contracts. They really mean nothing to me at this point.

This leaves the Mets acquiring a seasoned, successful closer, a potential 8th inning guy next season, and three more relievers that were ranked in another team's top 30 prospects.

We lose two top 30 prospects who were a top rated starter and a long term projected outfielder.

Based on this, I like what happened. No, we didn't get any blue chip prospect, but we might have firmed up the system's pen pipeline for quite a few years.

If Ramos pitches great next season and signs an extension, and Smith turns out to be what the scouts project him to be, this was a good day even if the three Red Sox pitchers flub out.

I give it a B.

Tomas Nido –

            Fangraphs had this scouting report on Nido this week –

CONCLUSIONS - Using a solid and powerful frame, Tomas Nido has appeared in two mid-season All-Star Games this year. He has upside in his hitting tool and may turn his raw power into a genuine skill that improves with age and experience. Solid on defense, Nido may be among the next “home grown” prospects to make the major league Mets club. Nido does not have speed and he won’t steal bases. He does, however, have a good enough defensive skill set with good mechanics to help pitchers on the Mets’ staff. Once his development is complete, Mets fans may expect an acceptable batting average, credible power, and good defensive skills in his overall approach to games. No single tool will be enough for Nido to grasp a starting catching job on a winning team. I do, however, think he will find his way to the Mets’ 25-man roster one day. His future will depend upon catching depth the Mets (don’t) acquire or develop in the next year or two.

SCOUTING PHRASE FOR NIDO: an improving catcher with power, but no one tool that overwhelms

SCOUTING GRADE FOR NIDO: 45 – A backup catcher at the major league level

Addison Reed –

           Fangraphs rated Addison Reed vs. the rest of the relievers during the Hot Stove season –

Reed is great because he doesn’t have crazy platoon splits and can get lefties and righties out and strikes everyone out and walks nobody. He’s probably your ‘best’ reliever that was traded at the deadline. Smith has that arm slot that is tough on righties, but also admitted to me earlier this season that he was throwing the four-seam more than ever “because now even righties have the swing to lift the low pitch because of launch angle and homers and getting paid,” and that you “have to be able to pitch in on guys.”

Tom Brennan: MET-ROSPECTIVE: THE LONG, LONG, LONG CAREER OF JULIO FRANCO

MET-ROSPECTIVE:

THE LONG, LONG, LONG CAREER OF JULIO FRANCO

Julio Franco – some thought he might just play forever.

He started playing minor league ball in 1978, at age 19.  His first hit was off 168 game career winner Bob Forsch in 1982, before Darryl Strawberry made his Mets debut.

He last played independent league ball in 2014, at age 55.

That is a 37 year span.

OK, OK, I know he didn’t play from 2009 through 2013, but let’s not quibble.

His 23 year major league career spanned nearly 10,000 plate appearances, in which he hit .298/.365/.417.

After hitting .319 for the Chicago White Sox in 1994 at age 34, he took off for Japan, hitting .306 in 1995.

He returned to hit .322 in Cleveland in 1996 at age 36.

He also played in Japan at age 39, in Korea at age 41, and for the Mexico City Tigers at age 42, where, in 110 games, he hit .437!!  Not a typo.

Returning to Atlanta at age 42, from age 42 through 45, in 945 major league at bats, he hit .296 with a .375 on base %. 

He then showed "major" slippage – he hit .275 for the Braves at age 46!

He then finally played for our NY Mets at age 47 and hit .273 in 179 plate appearances, and finished his major league career at age 48, going 20 for 90 (10 for 50 as a Met, with a .328 OBP).

14,272 total plate appearances, majors, minors, foreign.  That’s the equivalent of 24 seasons of 595 plate appearances. 

All told, he had 3,870 hits, 1,349 walks and 75 HBP.  He fanned over 2,000 times and still only fanned once every 7.1 plate appearances. 

And all of that doesn’t include spring training or the playoffs. 

I hear he still has callouses.  And Reese - Terry Collins wants him badly.

Reese Kaplan -- A Look at the 2018 40-Man Roster

Let’s take a look at the Mets 40-man roster and see who is likely to be a part of it come 2018.  As you know, a player on the 40-man roster gets three option years for a team to use.  Each year a player is promoted from the minors to the majors and then returned to the minors an option is used up.  Note that you can send a player back and forth as many times as you wish during a given year and only burn a single option. 

A good example is Rafael Montero who is currently on the major league team, but who has been back and forth during the 2014, 2015 and 2016 seasons, thus using up his three options.  One of the reasons he started the year in Las Vegas is because they no longer have the flexibility to option him back to the minors.  Right now if the Mets wanted to return Montero he would have to be “outrighted” to the minors as his three options have been used up.  Outrighting a player exposes him to waivers and another ballclub can claim the player from the Mets.  If more than one claim is made, the team with the lesser record gets priority. 

The composition of the New York Mets 40-man roster in 2018 is likely to be wildly different than who’s on it currently.  In addition to the major leagues squad of 25 players plus the people on the 10-day DL, you also have the following on the 40-man roster:

• Wuilmer Becerra
• Gavin Cecchini
• Marcos Molina
• Tyler Pill
• Tomas Nido
• Kevin Plawecki
• Matt Reynolds

Going into next season there would appear to be several people who are vulnerable to losing their spot on the 40 man roster.  Let’s start with the obvious ones:

• Curtis Granderson
• Jay Bruce
• Neil Walker
• Rene Rivera
• Fernando Salas
• Asdrubal Cabrera

This group of players have expiring contracts.  In the case of Cabrera, the Mets hold a $2 million option which they would have to pay in order to cut him.  To keep him would cost $8.5 million.  If the plan is to play Amed Rosario at SS with some combination of T.J. Rivera, Wilmer Flores or Gavin Cecchini available at 2B, they may decide to cut ties with their disgruntled infielder.  As soon as the season ends, you have 5-6 open roster spots.

Next would be the group of players on the 40-man roster whose performance or “out-of-options” status renders them vulnerable to be booted.  This group would include:

• Rafael Montero (out of options)
• Erik Goeddel (out of options)
• Chasen Bradford
• Matt Reynolds
• Kevin Plawecki (out of options)
• Tyler Pill
• Wuilmer Becerra (big step backwards in performance this year)

That’s potentially seven more casualties leaving 12 to 13 spots possibly open for additions from within the minor league ranks and/or from the outside (if the GM realizes his mistake and actually does think he needs to add players this off-season). 

Some almost sure to be added include:

• Dominic Smith
• Drew Smith
• P.J. Conlon
• Corey Oswalt

In addition, there are some MLB rules forcing teams to add players to the 40-man roster lest they risk losing them in the Rule V draft.  If you sign a player at age 18 or younger then they must be added after 5 years.  Players 19 or older must be added after four years in the minors.  I’ll leave the research and speculation to Tom Brennan or others more focused on the minor league channels to determine who falls into this special category. 

Remember, too, that you have a number of people on the 60-day DL who do not count against your 40-man roster for now but who must be added back once the season ends unless you plan to cut ties with them altogether.  In the former category you have David Wright, Noah Syndergaard and Jeurys Familia.  In the latter you have Tommy Milone. 

You do have quite a number of people on the 10-day DL as well, but they remain a part of the 40-man roster, so that doesn't change the overall number of vacancies.  

The long and short of it is that the 2018 roster will be vastly different, even if it goes against the inertia Sandy Alderson has lulled the fans into expecting.  

David Rubin: IT'S TRUE!!!!!! IT'S TRUE!!!!

Sometimes photos speak for themselves...these say SOOOOOO much- as in "the future is now!"

Blackham Named SAL-BC® Relief Pitcher of the Month

MEDIA RELEASE

         Contact: Kevin Fitzgerald

kfitzgerald@columbiafireflies.com

803-888-3040

Tuesday, August 1, 2017                                  

Blackham Named SAL-BC^® Relief Pitcher of the Month

Columbia’s Right-Hander Hurls 15.0 Scoreless Innings in July

CHARLESTON, SC – Columbia reliever Matt Blackham was named the South Atlantic League-BC^® Relief Pitcher of the Month for July, SAL President Eric Krupa announced. The Overland Park, Kansas, native did not allow an earned run in 15.0 innings in the month and struck out 23 batters. Blackham allowed just six hits and two walks in his eight appearances.

“Matt has been one of our most consistent pitchers coming out of the bullpen,” Fireflies manager Jose Leger said. “He has absolutely dominated hitters this month. He brings so much hard work and determination to the table.”

The 24-year-old earned a win on July 13 at home against Greensboro (2 IP, 4 K) and tallied two holds (July 20 and 28). Blackham has been arguably the most reliable reliever for Columbia.

The Mets farm hand has the highest strikeout per nine innings pitched ratio (13.2) in the South Atlantic League. This season, Blackham has struck out 66 hitters in just 45 innings and is 4-2 with a 1.80 ERA (28 games). 

Blackham was selected by the Mets out of Middle Tennessee State University in the 29^th round of the 2014 MLB First-Year Player Draft. The right-hander missed the entire 2016 season with an injury but has bounced back tremendously this year.

ROSTER MOVES

SS Amed Rosario promoted from AAA-Las Vegas to MLB-Mets
    (I don't see any upper movement within the pipeline caused by this move. Jio Mier and Cody Decker remian in Vegas and both can play shortstop. In addition, there's a good chance that Matt Reynolds will be returning to the AAA infield to give further depth in Vegas. Gustavo Nunez will remain the main SS in Binghamton while JC Rodriguez and Andres Gimenez remained blocked in St. Lucie and Columbia.)

RHP Gerson Bautista assigned to A+ St. Lucie

RHP Stephen Nogoseck assigned to A+ St. Lucie

P Briam Campusano transfer from A+ St. Lucie to Rookie-GCL Mets

P Chason Bradford from AAA-Vegas to MLB-Mets
    (Chase is one of the nicest person that has ever put on a Mets uniform. It's nice to see he will get some additional big league money in a lost season.)

OF Emmanuel Zabala to St. Lucie DL

Hobie's Prospect List

Mack, et al, response to "And I welcome everyone to post their own”

**********************

Prospect Lists puzzle this fan since few come with strict rationale of selection. Is it raw talent (“ceiling”), a probability of MLB exposure (“floor”) and ETA, or an even more ethereal speculation of some future accumulative career WAR?. The MLB rankings do have some quantitative signature with the “60's” listed above the 55's, 50's 45's. Even there, a 30 speed/60 arm for a catcher is not equivalent to the same rankings for an outfielder. So it's guesswork mainly. I'd like to think I look at ceiling and temper that with some probability of actually attaining that potential.

Also, I have no handle on ordering players of near equal “potential” with entirely different skill sets. Amed's position (harder to replace to replace with equal prowess) properly ranks him ahead of Dominic, I suppose, but does not guarantee a more stellar career. My rankings are therefore lumped together as below. Maybe someday I'll chance to predict whether K Kacz will be a better OF than P Maz a catcher. Can't right now. I had intended to have only 5 in each category, but as you will see couldn't pull the trigger on some close calls and declared a draw (chickenshit, I know).  Here goes.

MINF:

1. Amed Rosario, AAA
2. Andres Gimenez, A+
3. Luis Guillorme, AA
4. Gavin Cecchini, AAA
5. Luis Carpio A- (tie)
5. Michael Paez, A+ (tie)

CINF

1. Dominic Smith, AAA
2. Peter Alfonso, A+
3. David Thompson, AA
4. Jhoan Urena, A+
5. Jeremy Vasquez RK (tie)
5. Anthony Dimino A+ (tie)

IF notes: Hedged my bet here with a MINF tie for 5th place. And even there made last minute whimsical substitution of Michael Paez for Greg Guerrero. Have seen gritty Mike play and reminds me a lot of one Wally B. Likewise for the corners, I couldn't decide between Vasquez & Domino. Anthony can flat out hit, and though nominally a catcher, has played more 3 this year than 2. Mack asked him if he has ever played 3B and he answered affirmatively (and since has logged in innings at 3B, 2B and pitched a 1H/0R inning). This is a UT who definitely has a place, and as a #3 catcher allows your #1 or #2 to PH. Vasquez leads the Met Farm in SLG (7 HR at KP) and is thus a power anomaly for Met draft choices. Hopefully he as well as Alfonso, take some 3B lessons as Dominic Smith will be around for a long while IMO

OF

1. Kevin Kaczmarski AA
2. Victor Cruzado AAA
3. Wagner Lagrange RK
4. Jose Miguel Medina RK
5. Kevin Taylor AA (tie)
5. Tim Tebow, A+ (tie)

OF notes: Yes Thomas—Victor, my most favorite “no respect” MiL'er since TJ got a shot, is back on track (.344 in his last 10G). A switch-hitter with a MiL career .367 OBP, who plays all 3 OF spots, Cruz will never star, but like TJ will be a valuable bench asset. If Bruce is gone, Legares & Nimmo share CF and VC is #5 in 2018. Originally “Tie-Five” was Lindsay & Becerra, but Timbo & Taylor sneak by to capture the jam. That glow on the horizon, BTW, is 19 yr old CF, Jhoander Saez, slashing a.346/.415/.407 and flashing a 14/1 SB/CS in the DSL.

C:

1. Patrick Mazeika A+
2. Tomas Nido AA
3. Dan Lizzie A-
4. Juan Uriarte RK
5. Wilfred Astudillo DSL

C-notes: Karnak says Mazeilka & Nido will be a RHB/LHB catching duo after the TdA era closes. Only his LHB tells me Maz will get more starts. Sanchez has slumped past “Guppies” Rizzie, Uriate & Astudillo, who are just more interesting. DSL performance often means nothing but Wilfred's 10/14 K/BB ratio in 35G as well as his .815 OPS and 24 of 54 CS caught my attention.


SP

1. Jordan Humphries A-
2. Thomas Szapucki A-(DL)
3. PJ Conlon AA
4. Corey Oswalt AA (tie)
4. Nabil Crismatt A+ (tie)
5. David Peterson RK (tie)
5. Anthony Kay DL (tie)

SP notes: I had Flexen up there, but discarded once he debuted (not on basis of the debut performance—I'll think he'll still be OK) and flipped Scaz & Humphries once Thomas went down the TJS road. I just like JP and this is a heart over head choice. Corey & Nabil are viable back of the rotation guys who I keep confusing with one another. (As a kid I was never able to distinguish Mike de la Hose from Bobby del Greco for no apparent reason.). Peterson & Kay I have equal (high) hope for with no evidence of professional performance

RP

1. Drew Smith AA
2. Marcos Molina AA
3. Adonis Uceta A+
4. Tim Peterson AAA (tie)
4. Alberto Baldonado AAA (tie)
4. David Rosenbloom AAA/DL (tie)
5. Justin Dunn A+ (tie)
5. John Carlos Medina RK (tie)


RP Notes:
Of all the categories, I have the most confidence that we will see the top 3 here in the Queens pen in the next 2 years. Yeah I know, Molina is a starter—he won't be in Queens. The next three are lumped together because of the desert-effect on there promising bull pen careers in AA. I think one will emerge from the desert in tact. I don't know whom. And then Dunn & Medina are 2 more starters destined for the pen IMO. Both had much promise: a No.1 and a 16 yr old who was lights out in the DSL 4 yrs ago. We'll see.

I'll check back in 2025 to see how this looks in a historical setting. I'll be 80 then.

—Hobie

Peter Hyatt - Jose Reyes, Amed Rosario and Asdrubel Cabrera at the Deadline

In the blowout loss to Seattle, Jose Reyes tried to "steal" second base on a fly out to center field that did not work out. 

In a year in which he has shown serious distraction and poor base running choices, this one was different. 

He attempted to exploit  a particular fielder's arrogant nonchalant style of play.  He also attempted to, early in the game, bring some fire to his sluggish team by taking advantage of an outfielder known for his deliberate displays of indifference in the game.  This is the type of play that could inspire a team, and it was a gamble worth taking. 

It did not work out, but kudos to Reyes for trying to ignite something from a team who's energy levels appear sub mediocre.  

Reyes' injury is a good news/bad news scenario for Mets fans.  

Not wanting to see anyone injured but clamoring for the promotion of Amed Rosario, x- rays came back negative.  Commentators seeing Reyes writhe in pain thought the worst in terms of injury, and waited a few respectful  minutes to mention the "R" word; Rosario.  

How awkward does it feel to have mixed feelings over a man in pain with a possible broken bone?

Concerns over Rosario's possible discouragement and frustration at the lack of promotion have been heard in Mets world of front office internal debate.   Both he and Dom Smith have done everything possible to earn a promotion and the delay has frustrated fans as well as the players. A lost season is the time for player development, but this is not the case with 70 year old Alderson, who has a history of playing contracts over production, nor is it the talent of Terry Collins, 68, who shows his loyalty to veterans and his aversion to developing young players.  Think:  Michael Conforto, April 2017, should any reminder be necessary.  

Reyes' injury may be the final barrier to Rosario's promotion, as interest in Astrubel Cabrera has been lighter than some Mets officials expected.  

Don't underestimate the impact that Astrubel's demand for a contract extension or a trade had on negotiations with teams.  

Astrubel's demand came at a time when his  chip collateral for such was not at its highest, neither offensively nor defensively. He was seen as self and arrogant, especially when he complained that the front office had not shared their future plans on Rosario with him.  

Jose Reyes, on the other hand, has been both a gentleman and a "team first" advocate in offering to help Rosario adjust.   

Teams must weigh risk/reward factors with those who come under the quiet category of "head case" in the decision making process. 

Cabrera did not help himself, while Reyes may have helped retain a spot for next year as a utility player and defensive mentor for Rosario.  

Cabrera may experience his own surprise if put on waivers by the team he thought he could bully via his demands.  

Here's hoping to see Rosario-Smith combination on the field August 1. 

I continue to hope the Mets will make overtures to Jay Bruce on a 4 year deal. 

Bruce is better defensively than often credited, and a mature 30 year old veteran clubhouse presence of sanity and team first.  He could give us 4 years of 30 HRs per and along with Michael Conforto and a healthy 2018 Yoenis Cespdes, could give the Mets a 100+ HR outside.  

No nibbles on character:  Curtis Granderson's 36 year old bat, but it is still difficult to be disappointed here; he remains a quality locker room presence.  

Tom Brennan - PAUL SEWALD REVISITED

Tom Brennan - PAUL SEWALD REVISITED

Prior to the trade deadline, as I write this, I thought of Thanksgiving.  Hungry, I guess.  

But we should be thankful for what we have - like having Paul Sewald in the Mets pen.

There have always been Sewald doubters.

This here dude was tremendous in the minors, tons of saves (70 of 77), 17-8 W-L, and a career 2.20 ERA inflated by his time in Vegas (despite pitching well there, too).

But, you say, he does not throw his fastball at 100 MPH like everyone else,  And I reply, SO WHAT?

He's been in 35 games as a New York Met.  

In just 5, he's been charged with 2 or more runs.  

In just 5 others, he's given up 1 run.  

In 25, no runs.  Nice.

In 9 July games, 37 batters up, 3 hits, 12 Ks.  Nice.  

So his fastball this season has averaged "only" 91.24 MPH - so what?  Ron Taylor went 9-4, 2.72 with 13 saves in 1969, and he did not throw balls through cement either.

As I said, quite a few people have said that Sewald cannot throw hard enough. It is amazing though that he can strike out 50 at 41 innings.  Dontcha think?   Just a fluke...oh, I forgot, that is the same rate he fanned folks in the minor leagues.  319 in 261 innings, to be precise

MLB righty bats are hitting under .200 against Sewald, but his .317 BAA vs lefties shows he can still improve there.

But he can field - just one error in his entire career, major and minor.  Probably a blown call.

He joined a Mets bullpen that at the time was in large-scale disarray, as an unheralded underdog.  He proved to be a stabilizer.

He has a head start on Mets' Rookie of the Year honors - let's see if Sewald can head off Rosario and Smith in that regard when they are called up.  Actually, Sewald is 2nd in my ROY voting to TJ Rivera, another long-ignored underdog - until he couldn't be ignored any longer - just like Paul.

Terry still doubts Sewald, who has NO saves yet due to lack of opportunity.  Only 2 save opportunities so far (both in early June, representing 2 of his 5 bad outings) - 18 outings since the last one, and all but one of the 18 were solid - but his 70 in 77 chances in the minors shows that he can be competent there too, when needed.

Thank you, Paul Sewald.

Speaking of relievers, Addison Reed goes for 3 Vic Black type relief prospects....let's hope all three (nicely described in a Macks Mets post yesterday) will eventually do much better than Vic was able to for the Mets in the not-too-distant past.   

Of the 3, Jamie Callahan is a former 2nd founder who is the most advanced and off he heads to Sin City - he was seen crying as he headed to Pitchers' Hell.  Right now, to me, Met fireballer Ty Bashlor falls only behind Callahan in this threesome.  Drew Smith (in the Duda trade) seems a bit ahead of Bashlor too, at least for now.

Steve Nogosek looks like a good arm, but let's see if he can be effective above A ball next year.  The other guy is a wild man with a 1.81 WHIP this year: PROJECT.

Dunno about you...I was hoping that one or two more Mets Vets besides Reed and Lucas were going to be moved.  If Jay Bruce stays all year, though, maybe the lowly team home run record of 41 will finally topple and fall.

I'm done - isn't that a relief?