8/1/17

Hobie's Prospect List

4 comments


Mack, et al, response to "And I welcome everyone to post their own”

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Prospect Lists puzzle this fan since few come with strict rationale of selection. Is it raw talent (“ceiling”), a probability of MLB exposure (“floor”) and ETA, or an even more ethereal speculation of some future accumulative career WAR?. The MLB rankings do have some quantitative signature with the “60's” listed above the 55's, 50's 45's. Even there, a 30 speed/60 arm for a catcher is not equivalent to the same rankings for an outfielder. So it's guesswork mainly. I'd like to think I look at ceiling and temper that with some probability of actually attaining that potential.

Also, I have no handle on ordering players of near equal “potential” with entirely different skill sets. Amed's position (harder to replace to replace with equal prowess) properly ranks him ahead of Dominic, I suppose, but does not guarantee a more stellar career. My rankings are therefore lumped together as below. Maybe someday I'll chance to predict whether K Kacz will be a better OF than P Maz a catcher. Can't right now. I had intended to have only 5 in each category, but as you will see couldn't pull the trigger on some close calls and declared a draw (chickenshit, I know).  Here goes.

MINF:


1. Amed Rosario, AAA
2. Andres Gimenez, A+
3. Luis Guillorme, AA
4. Gavin Cecchini, AAA
5. Luis Carpio A- (tie)
5. Michael Paez, A+ (tie)

CINF


1. Dominic Smith, AAA
2. Peter Alfonso, A+
3. David Thompson, AA
4. Jhoan Urena, A+
5. Jeremy Vasquez RK (tie)
5. Anthony Dimino A+ (tie)

IF notes: Hedged my bet here with a MINF tie for 5th place. And even there made last minute whimsical substitution of Michael Paez for Greg Guerrero. Have seen gritty Mike play and reminds me a lot of one Wally B. Likewise for the corners, I couldn't decide between Vasquez & Domino. Anthony can flat out hit, and though nominally a catcher, has played more 3 this year than 2. Mack asked him if he has ever played 3B and he answered affirmatively (and since has logged in innings at 3B, 2B and pitched a 1H/0R inning). This is a UT who definitely has a place, and as a #3 catcher allows your #1 or #2 to PH. Vasquez leads the Met Farm in SLG (7 HR at KP) and is thus a power anomaly for Met draft choices. Hopefully he as well as Alfonso, take some 3B lessons as Dominic Smith will be around for a long while IMO

OF


1. Kevin Kaczmarski AA
2. Victor Cruzado AAA
3. Wagner Lagrange RK
4. Jose Miguel Medina RK
5. Kevin Taylor AA (tie)
5. Tim Tebow, A+ (tie)

OF notes: Yes Thomas—Victor, my most favorite “no respect” MiL'er since TJ got a shot, is back on track (.344 in his last 10G). A switch-hitter with a MiL career .367 OBP, who plays all 3 OF spots, Cruz will never star, but like TJ will be a valuable bench asset. If Bruce is gone, Legares & Nimmo share CF and VC is #5 in 2018. Originally “Tie-Five” was Lindsay & Becerra, but Timbo & Taylor sneak by to capture the jam. That glow on the horizon, BTW, is 19 yr old CF, Jhoander Saez, slashing a.346/.415/.407 and flashing a 14/1 SB/CS in the DSL.

C:


1. Patrick Mazeika A+
2. Tomas Nido AA
3. Dan Lizzie A-
4. Juan Uriarte RK
5. Wilfred Astudillo DSL

C-notes: Karnak says Mazeilka & Nido will be a RHB/LHB catching duo after the TdA era closes. Only his LHB tells me Maz will get more starts. Sanchez has slumped past “Guppies” Rizzie, Uriate & Astudillo, who are just more interesting. DSL performance often means nothing but Wilfred's 10/14 K/BB ratio in 35G as well as his .815 OPS and 24 of 54 CS caught my attention.


SP


1. Jordan Humphries A-
2. Thomas Szapucki A-(DL)
3. PJ Conlon AA
4. Corey Oswalt AA (tie)
4. Nabil Crismatt A+ (tie)
5. David Peterson RK (tie)
5. Anthony Kay DL (tie)

SP notes: I had Flexen up there, but discarded once he debuted (not on basis of the debut performance—I'll think he'll still be OK) and flipped Scaz & Humphries once Thomas went down the TJS road. I just like JP and this is a heart over head choice. Corey & Nabil are viable back of the rotation guys who I keep confusing with one another. (As a kid I was never able to distinguish Mike de la Hose from Bobby del Greco for no apparent reason.). Peterson & Kay I have equal (high) hope for with no evidence of professional performance

RP


1. Drew Smith AA
2. Marcos Molina AA
3. Adonis Uceta A+
4. Tim Peterson AAA (tie)
4. Alberto Baldonado AAA (tie)
4. David Rosenbloom AAA/DL (tie)
5. Justin Dunn A+ (tie)
5. John Carlos Medina RK (tie)


RP Notes:
Of all the categories, I have the most confidence that we will see the top 3 here in the Queens pen in the next 2 years. Yeah I know, Molina is a starter—he won't be in Queens. The next three are lumped together because of the desert-effect on there promising bull pen careers in AA. I think one will emerge from the desert in tact. I don't know whom. And then Dunn & Medina are 2 more starters destined for the pen IMO. Both had much promise: a No.1 and a 16 yr old who was lights out in the DSL 4 yrs ago. We'll see.

I'll check back in 2025 to see how this looks in a historical setting. I'll be 80 then.

—Hobie

4 comments:

Mack Ade said...

A very well thought out list

Thomas Brennan said...

Great list, Hobie, and nicely categorized.

Cruzado is likely properly positioned at # 2 OF - I sure would love to see more power from him. Without it...

I have to have Ty Bashlor in my reliever list - any dude who fans 66 in 38 IP (nearly 16 Ks / 9), as he has this year, is too good to not get in there, IMO.

Hopefully, at least 2 of the relievers we got from Boston should be in your reliever list.

In starting pitching, I'd like to add Harol Gonzalez as an honorable mention - after a fine Brooklyn season in 2016, he was getting roughed up early in Columbia but has realigned the ship quite nicely; but he is at best, in my view, a long reliever in the big leagues, if that. But he seems like a fighter. Just to be clear, he would be around my 10th starter in my own list, I just think he is gritty.

Tebow will take that 5th place tie, for now :) Before the season, a lot of folks thought he'd be 5th WORST!

Hobie said...

Mack, thanks for the opportunity.

Thomas--
Yes I thought about the once "Other" Gonzalez who is now "The" Gonzalez. Saw him actually in June (7.2 IP, 1 ER) where I also witnessed a Lindsay HR and a 2-out, 2-run double by Backm... er, Paez. and an Uceta 4-out, 3K save. Harol could easily leapfrog the completely untested Kay & Peterson, though actually I hope not.

I'm slowly coming around to Tebow the baseball player--I was never against Tebow the publicity stunt. The game I saw he K'd twice & grounded out. Yet he hustled on that 1-3 ground out making it close(!), made a nice running, lunging (not diving) catch in LF, and stayed on the field forever until every kid got an auto. I'm rooting for him.

And probably I shout just pick one of my 3-way tie for "3 RP (I just don't know which one is real) and give #5 to Bashlor rather than predict fail for a starter.

Thomas Brennan said...

Hobie, compared to the guy I profile at 10 o'clock tomorrow, Tebow has plenty of time :)

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