12/2/21

Tom Brennan - Major League Lockout, and Retrospective on Mets' 2014 Draft


Wikipedia states:

retrospective (from Latin retrospectare, "look back"), generally, is a look back at events that took place, or works that were produced, in the past.

I thought it might be fun to look back and see who got drafted by the Mets in rounds 1 thru 5, how they panned out, and which of them (and those from rounds beyond round 5) made it to the dance. 

Not to get too historical, I thought I’d start at 2005 and work forward towards 2021 from there, a year at a time.

Today?  

The Mets' 2014 Draft: 

The first round brought us Michael Conforto 10th overall.  Mets' leadership was popping champagne corks when he slipped down to them.  I'd say that was a very solid 10th overall pick, even if he goes elsewhere.  If he was not a free agent, they'd  do arbitration, and keep him to see if he'd bounce back, or do an extension at a discount.  But he is a free agent.  132 Mets HRs in 2,551 at bats ain't chump change.  I wish him well.  Just not against the Mets, please.

Round 2 - no pick.  No pick = no fun.

Round 3 - Milton Ramos - a bust pick.  Like so many Mets picks, he hit around .240 in the minors without power.  A fine pick several rounds later, but not for his round.  Although, at the time, he was touted in the draft listings, as high as 34th overall.

Mack's take at the time was this:

Milton Ramos may be a very special player and could easily turn out to be the most talented shortstop in the Mets organization. This was a stroke of genius on draft day, who shouldn’t have been around when the 84th pick came up. He was easily one of the top 50 ballplayers available for the draft that year.  

But…is Ramos going to be another in a serious of excellent defensive Mets shortstop prospects who get their bats knocked out of their hands by quality pitching?

Much too early to tell or worry about. He’ll play 2015 as a 19-year old and his ceiling would be Kingsport. 

Mack was right - it is hard to tell, especially for real young kids, and yes, he mostly got bats knocked out of his hands thereafter.

Round 4 had Eudor Garcia, who seemed to be an emerging hitter of some promise, but PEDs made him short-lived and submerging.  A solid .282 in 940 career ABs with 131 RBIs - then, suddenly, gone.

Round 5 - Josh Prevost - the 6'7" pitcher was big and bad - but "bad" in a bad way, not a good way.  Bust pick.

The only other pick that made the bigs was the traded Brad Wieck, a very tall (6'9"), very high strikeout pitcher with control issues.  He was a PTBNL in the deal that brought the Mets big hat bust wild slinger Alex Torres.  Big Brad has 89 Ks and 24 walks in 59 innings in the majors, after 459 Ks in 326 innings in the minors.  Nasty.

He was cooking for the Cubs this year, with 17 scoreless innings and 28 Ks.  Then, his season went POOF!

Not for an arm injury, as one might instantly assume.  Instead, for this, as reported on MLBTradeRumors site: 

"(The Cubs) transferred lefty Brad Wieck from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL, per a club announcement. Wieck, who is sidelined by an irregular heartbeat, will undergo an ablation procedure in an effort to address the issue, tweets Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. He had a similar procedure performed in February 2020."

Hopefully, he will come back 100%.

All in all, a terrible draft for the Mets, after the all-too-obvious Conforto selection.

Next up?  2015.


Max - back in his Tigers Days, wearing a big D - May he go from D to Straight As with the Mets

P.S. Baseball Lockdown - and Max Scherzer

The baseball lockdown is here.  I will leave it to others to pontificate on the exigencies of a lockdown/lockout.  I'd prefer to have a cookout and watch baseball.

Max Scherzer appears to be a strong and forceful leader and I will leave it, again, to others to parse everything said during yesterday's presser, but I look forward to his standing on a mound and making non-Mets players miserable, a particularly strong skill of his.

Can we just skip the new players' contract stuff and sign a few more great players and start warm and inviting spring training already?  Life these days feels like one big ball of tensions and lockdowns.  I don't want variants.  

I just want baseball, thank you.

Jacob and Max....Max and Jacob...Jacob and Max...Max and Jacob.

All that said, MLB.com had the following information in a Q&A from owners.  I think what the owners propose at a high level is good, and the minor league info is also good, but otherwise I am not trying to analyze this whole thing - millionaires will work something out with other millionaires eventually.

Here are excerpts:

A: ...We offered to establish a minimum payroll for all clubs to meet for the first time in baseball history; to allow the majority of players to reach free agency earlier through an age-based system that would eliminate the Players Association’s concern about alleged “service-time manipulation”; and to increase compensation for younger players, including a historic increase to the minimum salary for players with one or two years of Major League service. 

In an attempt to spur negotiations towards an agreement, we told the Players Association that we were willing to extend the Designated Hitter to the National League; to create a new draft lottery system, similar to those employed by other leagues; and to increase the luxury-tax threshold that affects only a small number of teams. 

Q: Will Spring Training start on time?

A: We are still currently planning for Spring Training to start on time and for a full 2022 season without disruption and will spend every day working around the clock to achieve that goal.

Q: What does this mean for the Minor Leagues?

A: The 2022 Minor League season -- and players who are not on the 40-man roster, or signed to a Major League contract -- will be unaffected. Minor League teams will continue to hold minicamps, Minor League Spring Training, and extended spring training for these players. Teams are continuing to adhere to the terms of all Professional Development League License Agreements with their affiliates and will be operating their Minor League operations uninterrupted.


Yesterday (12/1/21) in Winter Ball: Mauricio off;




Yesterday in the Dominican League:


Tigres del Licey 5 Gigantes del Cibao 2 (Box Score)

Ronny Mauricio, did not play - .244 batting average with .643 OPS.

David Thompson, PR-DH, 0 for 1, 1 run scored - .150 batting average with .340 OPS.

Jordany Valdespin - 2 for 3, double, run scored, 1 walk, 1 K - .500 batting average with 1.340 OPS (only has appeared in 4 games so far this Winter).

Leones del Caracas 4 Toros del Este 0 (Box Score)

Josh Reddick, RF, 1 for 4, 1 K - .300 with .600 OPS.

Martin Cervenka, DH, 0 for 2, 2 walks, 1 K - .192 with .548 OPS.

Aguilas Cibaenas 4 Estrellas de Oriente 3 (Box Score)
Orlando Calixte, 3B, 0 for 3, 1 run scored, 1 walk, 2 Ks - now hitting .261 with .693 OPS.

Juan Lagares, RF, 0 for 3, 1 walk, 1, 1 K - .286 with .699 OPS.

In Venezuela:

Leones del Caracas 10 Bravos de Margarita 3 (Box Score)

David Rodriguez, C, 2 for 3, 2 walks, 2 runs scored, 1 RBI - hitting .280 with .833 OPS.

Wilfredo Tovar, SS, 2 for 4, 2 runs scored, 1 walk - hitting .388 with .944 OPS.

In Mexico:

Juan Uriarte C (Box Score), did not play - hitting .284 with .724 OPS.

In Puerto Rico:

Mayaguez 9 Criollos de Caguas 3 (Box Score)

Johneshwy Fargas 2 for 5, 2 Ks - hitting .288 with .723 OPS.


12/1/21

ICYMI: Today's Mets Press Conferences

 


In Case you had to work today and missed the Mets Introductory Press conferences, here are the full press conferences as posted on twitter.  The Mets introduced Max Scherzer, at 1 PM and then Mark Canha, Starling Marte, and Eduardo Escobar at 6 tonight.



PRESS RELEASE - METS SIGN ALL-STAR EDUARDO ESCOBAR



FLUSHING, N.Y., December 1, 2021 – The New York Mets today announced that the club has signed All-Star infielder Eduardo Escobar to a two-year contract with a club option for 2024.

 

Escobar, 32, appeared in 146 games between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021. He slashed .253/.314/.472 with 77 runs, 26 doubles, five triples, 28 home runs, 90 RBI and a 109 OPS+. He was also named to his first All-Star team last season.

 

"Eduardo will be a welcomed addition not only to our lineup, but to our clubhouse culture," said Mets General Manager Billy Eppler. "Eduardo's versatility on the infield and his ability to hit from both sides of the plate will give our team additional depth."

 

In 11 major league seasons, Escobar has slashed .256/.309/.436 with 503 runs, 215 doubles, 37 triples, 138 home runs and 536 RBI. He has recorded four seasons with at least 20 home runs and put up 80 or more RBI three times in his career.

 

In 2019, the switch-hitter recorded a career high 94 runs, 10 triples, 35 home runs and 118 RBI. He became the fourth switch-hitter in major league history to record a season with 30 or more home runs, 20 or more doubles and 10 or more triples, joining Ripper Colins (1934), Mickey Mantle (1955) and Jimmy Rollins (2007).

 

The Venezuelan native was originally signed by the Chicago White Sox as a non-drafted minor league free agent on January 28, 2006. 

 

 

 

Player Profile - Harol Gonzalez


 

Background, Stats, Videos.

Background: 

Harol Gonzalez. Starting Pitcher, Bats Both, Throws Right, 6'0", DOB 3/2/1995, Originally signed by the New York Mets as an International free agent on March 26, 2014. 

After spending 7 years in the Minors with the Mets, Harol re-signed with them before the 2021 season as a minor league free agent with an invite to Spring Training.  He even started one of the Games for the "A" squad - throwing a no run, no hit inning with 1 K.  It looked like finally that Harol was going to get his chance to pitch in the Major Leagues at some point last year.   

Then, injury.  Harol underwent Tommy John Surgery (TJS) in early May 2021, and, after having lost the entire 2020 season due to COVID, lost the 2021 season as well.  

Now, he has once again signed a minor league free agent deal with the Mets.  Let's hope 2022 is the year that Harol finally makes it to New York City.

In 2019 Harol pitched in Binghamton and Syracuse.  

For the Double A Rumble Ponies, he went 6-4 with a 3.14 ERA in 17 games.  This included a combined a no hitter with Ryder Ryan in May 2019.  

When he was called up to the Syracuse Mets, Harol was one their best pitchers going 6-0 with a 2.68 ERA in 8 games. 

This was after a tough 2018 season, Harol pitched in St. Lucie, Las Vegas and Binghamton in 2018 but his 2018 Binghamton stats were most glaring as he went 0-9 in nine starts with a 7.79 ERA. 

Harol will be one to watch next year as he comes back from TJS, tries to get back to his success with Syracuse in 2019, and perhaps make it to Citi Field.

Here is Harol Gonzalez’ FANGRAPHS page.

Here is Harol Gonzalez’ Baseball Savant page.

Stats: 

Standard Pitching -



2019 Pitching Splits -



Videos:








PRESS RELEASE - METS SIGN THREE-TIME CY YOUNG AWARD WINNER MAX SCHERZER



FLUSHING, N.Y., December 1, 2021 – The New York Mets today announced that the club has signed three-time Cy Young Award winner and eight-time All-Star right-handed pitcher Max Scherzer to a three-year contract.  

"Max is a fierce competitor, and we are thrilled to welcome him to New York," said Mets General Manager Billy Eppler. "The credit goes to Steve and Alex Cohen for their efforts, commitment and resources to bring someone as accomplished as Max into the organization."    

Scherzer went 15-4 with a 2.46 ERA (49 earned runs/179.1 innings) in 30 starts between the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers last year. He struck out 236 and walked 36 while earning his eighth All-Star nod. He led the majors in opponents' batting average (.185) and WHIP (0.864), was second in ERA and walks per 9 IP (1.807), was fourth in strikeouts and pitcher bWAR (6.0), and ranked fifth among pitchers in fWAR (5.4) as well as fifth in wins.  

Scherzer is a three-time Cy Young Award winner, taking home the trophy with Detroit in 2013 and with Washington in 2016 and 2017. He finished third in voting last season and is one of seven pitchers in major league history to finish in the top five of his league's Cy Young voting eight or more times.  

In 2021, he recorded his ninth season with at least 200 strikeouts. Only Nolan Ryan (15), Randy Johnson (13), Roger Clemens (12) and Tom Seaver (10) have more seasons with 200 or more strikeouts. Scherzer has 104 games with double-digit strikeouts during his career, the fifth-most in major league history, behind Ryan (215), Johnson (212), Clemens (110) and Pedro Martinez (108). He became the 19th pitcher in major league baseball to reach 3,000 strikeouts on September 12, 2021. 

Scherzer is the active leader in strikeouts and ranks third among active pitchers in ERA, fourth in wins and bWAR for pitchers (67.1), and fifth in starts. He has led his league in wins four times, strikeouts three times and innings twice.   

Scherzer is second in the majors with 36 starts of 7.0 or more innings and two earned runs or fewer allowed since 2018 (Jacob deGrom is first with 42). According to Fangraphs, Scherzer leads the majors with 33.2 WAR since 2016. DeGrom is second with 30.5. 

Scherzer is 10-2 with a 2.14 ERA (22 earned runs/92.2 innings) with 125 strikeouts in 14 career starts at Citi Field. He tossed his second career no-hitter at Citi Field on October 3, 2015.  

According to Elias, Scherzer and deGrom will become the seventh duo of multi-Cy Young Award winners to pitch for the same team in the same season, joining the 2021 Dodgers (Scherzer & Clayton Kershaw), 2008 Mets (Pedro Martínez & Johan Santana), 2005-2007 Mets (Martínez & Tom Glavine), 1999-2002 Braves (Glavine and Greg Maddux), 2001 Red Sox (Martínez & Bret Saberhagen) and the 1986 White Sox (Tom Seaver and Steve Carlton). 

A member of the 2019 World Series Champion Washington Nationals, Scherzer has appeared in 26 career postseason games, including a start in the decisive Game 7 of the 2019 World Series. He was 3-0 with a 2.40 ERA in six games (five starts) during the 2019 postseason. Overall, he has posted a 7-6 record with a 3.22 ERA (46 earned runs/128.1 innings) with 14 walks and 160 strikeouts in 26 games (21 starts) in the postseason.  

The eight-time All-Star has posted a 190-97 record with a 3.16 ERA (890 earned runs/2,536.2 innings) with 677 walks and 3,020 strikeouts in 407 games (398 starts) across 14 major league seasons. 

He was originally drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the first round (11th overall) of the 2006 First Year Player Draft out of the University of Missouri. 


 

 

Tom Brennan - Retrospective on Mets' Drafts of Years Past: 2013

 


Wikipedia states:

retrospective (from Latin retrospectare, "look back"), generally, is a look back at events that took place, or works that were produced, in the past.

I thought it might be fun to look back and see who got drafted by the Mets in rounds 1 thru 5, how they panned out, and which of them (and those from rounds beyond round 5) made it to the dance. 

Not to get too historical, I thought I’d start at 2005 and work forward towards 2021 from there, a year at a time.

Today?  

The Mets' 2013 Draft 

1st Round - Dominic Smith - the pundits as I recall said they considered Smith the best pure HS hitter in the draft.  Thereafter, he put on a lot of weight in the minors (listed at 185 at signing, but 260 when called up), got called up to the Mets eventually, struggled, lost much of the weight and attended to some health issues, had a solid 2019 and a short, but excellent, 2020, followed by (to me) a puzzling 2021 regression.  My brother feels they found he has trouble with high fastballs and hence the drop off from 2020.  We'll see. 

Jury is still out on whether Smith was a good first round pick or not.  If he reverts to 2020 form, absolutely.  If not, he reverts to Lucas Duda.  Fangraphs expects him to do modestly better in 2022 than he did in 2021; let's hope for Smith's sake, he does even better.

(BTW - Aaron Judge went at # 32, Scott Manaea at # 34).

2nd Round - Andrew Church - he'd struggle, show promise, struggle some more, show promise...but the righty hurler never made the majors.  When he went 7-4, 2.92 in A ball in 2016, I thought he was on his way.  Ultimately, though?  

Disappointing pick.

3rd Round - Ivan Wilson - the Mets opted to go with a stud athlete, hoping they could fix the strikeout hole in his swing.  They couldn't.  So, make it he didn't.  I like taking a shot at a guy like him, but at draft time, I read he had contact issues.  I wonder if that deficiency was sufficiently taken into account by the Mets' drafting experts.  His last season in low A, he hit .197 with 80 Ks in 236 PAs.

3rd Round - Casey Meisner - he got traded away by the Mets.  After showing some promise in the minors, especially his 13-5, 2.45 season in 2015, he had a rough 2019.  Hasn't played since in the minors.

4th Round - LJ Mazzilli - What were they thinking?  Fine if you draft him, but maybe do so in the 7th to 10th round, not in the 4th round. Minors career ended in 2018, at .265. 

5th Round - Jared King - another failed pick - career .240 , less than a HR every 100 ABs in the minors.  Not sure what they expected from this 5th round pick - I'd have drafted power instead, or another arm.

Miserable Mets selection effort, results-wise, on rounds 2 thru 5.

They got hot in Rounds 10 thru 12, nabbing Luis Guillorme, Tylor Bashlor, and especially using a pick in round 12 that they had squirreled away for Jeff McNeil.

Luis has been a nice fill in, but not a big run producer.  The glove wizard hit .265 with a .374 OBP, but only a .311 slug %.  He'd greatly help his cause if he could add 50-75 points to the latter number without messing up the other 2 solid numbers. 

Only Smith and McNeil, who hit .316 and .311, respectively, in 2020, have been moderate to slightly above moderate impact major leaguers so far, whose full stories have yet to be written.  

May they both excel from here.

But had they not nabbed McNeil in Round 12, this would have been a terrible draft.  Drafting Smith and McNeil, with Guillorme too?  A good draft.

Next up?  2014.

Reese Kaplan -- Reach for the Stars But Don't Stop There


Max Scherzer a Met?  

Wow, even the arrivals of Pedro Martinez and Johann Santana and Tom Glavine didn't generate as much deserved raw positive emotion as did the man with a 2.75 ERA since his arrival into the National League since his extrication from the frozen north of Detroit.  That number is better than what Mr. Tom Seaver provided during his career and certainly a one-two punch of Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer is going to be pretty gut wrenching for opponents.

For a little point of comparison, Scherzer in the final years of his career has a little pitching catch-up to do.  It seems that a back-of-the-baseball-card look at another pitcher who has a lifetime ERA of 2.50 who just happens to be his new teammate -- Jacob deGrom.  Scherzer may have three Cy Young Awards to go up against deGrom's two, but Jake has actually been the better pitcher.

So with a Steinbrenneresque approach, Mets owner Steve Cohen quickly (and temporarily) took over ownership of baseball in New York.  The media's happy, the fans are happy and optimism has hit levels not seen around Citifield pretty much ever.  



While I hate to be the bearer of bad news, the fact is the signings of Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha, it's not quite time to close the door nor the checkbook.  As it stands right now the Mets are still short in the starting rotation, the bullpen and questions exist whether the roles envisioned for Escobar and Canha were starters or very capable extras.  

Word had been prevalent that the Mets were banking on now-Toronto Blue Jay Kevin Gausman if the negotiations with Scherzer didn't come to a positive fruition.  Had they gone down this road there would have been media hell to pay for what Gausman landed -- $110 million for five years after putting up one decent MLB season after nine in the majors.  Even with this outstanding 2021 season his career ERA is still 4.02.  All of the sudden the $44 million the Cardinals paid for Steven Matz looks like a bargain.  

The Mets very definitely need another quality arm to join deGrom, Scherzer, Walker and Carrasco.  The Mets are hoping Walker's first half was more indicative of what he can do and Carrasco's whole season was a myriad of problems related to health.  That's a lot of hope on your two of your top four starters.  Behind them you still have David Peterson, Tylor Megill and various others recovering from injuries.  One more rock solid starter will enable you to slide Walker and Carrasco down to 4 and 5 which would make for a rock solid rotation if they can pitch to what amounts for an average season based upon their past history.  


Many folks want the team to pursue Robbie Ray who won the AL Cy Young Award this past season.  There's no denying his fine 2021 effort which resulted in a 13-7 record, a 2.84 ERA, 248 strikeouts in just over 193 innings and a league leading WHIP of 1.045.  While the win total is a bit low, deGrom proved that wins are not the only metric that the voters evaluate.  Just as the Mets once parlayed a highly surprising Cy Young Award winner in R.A. Dickey into a nice package of players in return, there's every reason to believe that a man who has only had three healthy seasons in an eight-year career is going to cash in via free agency.  The report is a $115 million five-year deal with the Seattle Mariners.

A career record just barely over .500 with a 4.00 ERA and control problems does not spell high ranking (and soon-to-be-very-wealthy) starter to me.  At $8 million last year and a trophy on his mantle, figure Ray is looking at a Wheeler-like contract. He fell just $3 million short of what the former Met got from Philadelphia. 


If you're going to gamble on health and want projected quality, perhaps Carlos Rodon is a better prospect for return on investment.  He too has had problems staying healthy and even in 2021 only had 24 starts.  In them he finished with a superior 13.5 record and a superior 2.37 ERA.  He has a career record just north of .500 and a career ERA of 3.79 for the White Sox.  

This lefty shouldn't cost half of what Cy Young winner Ray will get and is also younger.  Rodon only earned $3 million in that eye popping 2021 campaign and even if you tripled his pay, it would fall under what the Cardinals paid Steven Matz.  

The trade route is still possible for the Mets as well.  Now with some bench reinforcements it would seem that Dom Smith, J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil could all be had in the right offer of pitching.  Like it or not, Robinson Cano is not going to be a $20 million bench player this year and next. Escobar is here for a couple of years, so there's a bit of a glut on the infield and now perhaps in the outfield, too.  Who is available in trade is anyone's guess.


So bust out the champagne or however else you choose to celebrate good Mets achievements.  No one could have convinced me that the boys in Queens would be able to secure the services of Max Scherzer.  However, please also remember the work is far from over.  

Yesterday (11/30/21) in Winter Ball: Mauricio 0 for 3, walk;




Yesterday in the Dominican League:


Tigres del Licey 6 Toros del Este 1 (Box Score)

Ronny Mauricio, 0 for 3, walk off ex-Met Tim Peterson, 2 Ks .- 244 batting average with .643 OPS.

Antonio Santos, 1 inning, no runs, 1 walk, 2 Ks - 1.35 ERA.

Josh Reddick, RF, 1 for 4, 1 K - .333 with .667 OPS.

Aguilas Cibaenas 3 Gigantes del Cibao 2 (Box Score)
Orlando Calixte, 3B, 0 for 4, 2 Ks - now hitting .273 with .713 OPS.

Juan Lagares, RF, 0 for 4, 2 Ks - .308 with .735 OPS.

In Venezuela:

Caribes de Anzoategui 9 Bravos de Margarita 3 (Box Score)

David Rodriguez, C, 0 for 4, 1 walk - hitting .269 with .810 OPS.

Yeizo Campos, 1 inning, no runs, no hits - 2.53 ERA.

In Mexico:

Juan Uriarte C (Box Score), 1 for 3, walk, 2 runs scored, 1 K - hitting .284 with .724 OPS.

In Puerto Rico:

Criollos de Caguas 6 Mayaguez 4 (Box Score)

Johneshwy Fargas 0 for 4, 1 RBI, 1 walk - hitting .277 with .715 OPS.