Okay- so now that we’re back with part 2, first my apologies- computer issues led to my inability to post this yesterday, which on the “plus” side allows me to go back to my original reason for writing this post. My buddy Steve, as I said in Part 1, has already grown impatient with the new Mets management, particularly with the management search, in addition to Sandy’s visit to Puerto Rico and the Dominican. (In Steve’s defense, this was before he knew about the loss of Sandy’s father.)
If nothing else, the one thing that Sandy’s being part of
Beltran’s Fundraiser for his baseball academy did for the team was to show Beltran (who, when healthy, is still the teams’ biggest star) that the new organization will treat him with class and dignity, which seems to be the hallmark of this new organization. Usually, players expect to go TO their new GM for a visit; it’s rare that the new GM makes the trip to see THEM. Alderson being the multi-tasker that he is, put together what has to be viewed as a successful use of time, fitting in visits with Luis Castillo, and Angel PaganJose Reyes (Pagan and Reyes @ Beltran’s Fundraiser) while meeting one-on-one with a player, Beltran, who could/should play a pivotal role in the Mets success in 2011. At the beginning of the year, Beltran and the organization were at odds over his medical treatment, to the point that Beltran felt he had to go against the club’s recommendation in order to play at all, at some level near his prior performance, for the 2010 season. Regardless of where the true blame lies (and at this point, it truly doesn’t matter), the fact that Alderson offered an olive branch to Beltran, and that it was accepted, shows that the face of the organization is certainly handling things in a far more upfront and direct fashion. In fact, Beltran discussed the possibilities of both moving positions (right field) and waiving his no-trade clause, showing that, if treated like an adult in a respectful fashion, positive results can be achieved. What a difference from the days when Mike Piazza learned that he was going to be tried out at first base from a reporter and NOT manager Art Howe!! (Yes, sub in Jose Reyes to second or Todd Hundley to left and you can certainly sense an ongoing pattern!!) Now, at worst, the Mets can field a happier, more productive (we hope) former all-star in either center or right field, or absorb some of his salary and move him to another team for a younger player, which will be far harder to make happen then it sounds. And who knows- maybe the Mets can even come to terms on an extension with Beltran so that he can finish his career in orange and blue, at far friendlier terms for the club?? At least with Sandy in charge, these all seem like viable options rather then pipe dreams.That brings us to the upcoming GM Meetings and Winter Meetings. We’ve all heard that the Mets won’t be “major players” in this years’ free agent market, and that’s probably for the best. First, the talent level isn’t very deep, especially in comparison to the next 2 years; second, the loss of a draft pick or picks isn’t a great solution in exchange for yet another long-term, high-dollar contract; finally, the Mets need a year to divest themselves of the last of their high-dollar, low-yield contracts and start over on an even playing field, of sorts. This allows the team to promote additional players to the major league roster, who otherwise might not have received the look they deserved, including Nick Evans and Justin Turner. With over $50 million worth of contracts expiring after 2011 (possible as much as $60 million), the Mets will have a huge opportunity to fish for “big fish” and “smaller fish” to suit the teams’ needs around what will hopefully be a far younger and better put-together team then that of recent vintage.
While it may be hard to watch teams like the Yankees sign a Cliff
Lee or the Phillies or Yankees (heaven help us) sign a Pedro Feliciano, it would be MUCH harder to go through another drop-off like the ’07-’10 team did if it was littered again with large, untradeable contracts and mismatched players. If the Knicks had been able to sign LeBron James to pair with Amare, no fans would be fixated on the years prior to his arrival and the losses that accrued; similarly, while 2011 may be hard to sit through again, once the off-season comes along again, and the Mets are once more in play for top talent via free agent and/or trades, the frustrations of this off-season will seem further away, although not totally forgotten (hey- let’s face it- a team that’s been around for nearly 50 years and has exactly 2 World Series victories and one Hall-of-Famer isn’t known for the quantity of great memories it’s created, just the quality.)Furthermore, while I’d love to see the team finally sign Orlando
Hudson (another player who truly wanted to be a Met these past 2 years, only to be blocked by the contract of Luis Castillo), I’d rather they save the $6 million or so, give a chance to some combo of Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejada and Reese Havens, all homegrown talents, and then utilize the remaining, talented young middle-infielders (such as Jordany Valdespin) in trade either during the season or next off-season. Although second base is one of the 3 “quarterback” positions on the field (the others being catcher and centerfield) and Hudson is one of the best at his position, the glut that’s been created in the minor leagues at that position should be harvested and bear fruit for the major league roster instead of blocking yet another position in favor of a higher-priced veteran. I’d much rather see a trade for a player like catcher Ryan Doumit of the Pirates, who offers excellent defense and decent pop, and who can serve as an excellent platoon partner with Josh Thole until the Mets draft a top tier catcher (yes, Mack will never let ANYONE live down the fact that the Mets didn’t select catching prospect Yasmani Grandal last year!) Doumit wouldn’t cost a ton in prospects and has a contract of less then $4 million next season, when he turns 30 – young for a Mets catcher of recent seasons. Catcher is the one position the organization is sorely lacking in both quality and quantity, and Doumit would be a decent stopgap until either Thole shows he can perform at a high level over the course of a few seasons, and another top prospect can be either developed or traded for at that position.This brings us to a game that Mack and I play with regularity- fill in the positions on the roster! It’s usually geared towards the minor league levels, but with open season on roster movement now upon us, a cursory look at the various holes on the roster is called for.
Before playing let’s assume that neither Ollie Perez nor Luis Castillo will be brought back for the 2011 season.
Catcher: Josh Thole
Evaluation: If Blanco is brought back, the position will once again not be counted on for much in the way of power, although the steady glove/pitcher-handling of Blanco along with the improving hitting and fielding of Thole wouldn’t equate to weakness. A Doumit/Thole combo would represent a better alternative.
Grade: Incomplete
First Base: Ike Davis
Evaluation: Davis was far more deserving then a pair of 3rd place votes in the recent Rookie-of-the-Year voting; he represents the best home-grown player at his position in team history. Davis should see his offensive numbers grow as he develops as a player, and his defense is already tops at the position. Rather then looking at expensive solutions like Prince Fielder, the team should be very happy to fill in the line-up card with Davis’s name for the next 5-7 years.
Grade: B+
Second Base: Ruben Tejada, Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner, Where’s Waldo
Evaluation: Tejada’s natural position is shortstop; Murphy doesn’t really have a position; Turner is a former top prospect trying to re-establish his major league candidacy; Waldo remains to be found, which sums up this position in a nutshell. My preferences- Tejada plays the entire season in AAA at shortstop; Reese Havens stays healthy for the entire season at AAA and is promoted in September; Justin Turner proves his worth as a utility infielder and makes the club; Daniel Murphy continues his transition to second base, proves to be a semi-adequate fielder (a la Dan Uggla-who’s now a Brave- UGH!!) and hits his expected 15 homers, 75 RBI’s and has an average of around .285. There are enough questions at second base to keep the teams’ new brain-trust active for an entire off-season, which they will be.
Grade: Incomplete
Shortstop: Jose Reyes
Evaluation: When healthy, there’s no shortstop, and almost no other player, who can electrify a team the way Reyes can. Putting aside whatever maturity/chemistry issues have been speculated upon, Reyes’ natural talents in the field, at the plate and on the base-paths make him the most unique shortstop with the highest upside in the game. Reyes won’t turn 28 until mid-season 2011, and if healthy (a huge if) should post the best numbers of his career, considering that he’s playing for a contract past 2011. Signed to a one-year option of $11 million, Reyes represents, along with Wright, the best combo of home grown, offensive talent the team has ever produced and his current trade value is nowhere close to what it was a mere 2 years ago, when he certainly could have produced a package of a Neftali Perez and Elvis Andrus (plus) from a team like Texas. At this point, he needs to be a Met if only to show, once and for all, whether Reyes can both stay healthy and produce on a level commensurate with his abilities, once and for all.
Grade: Incomplete
Third Base: David Wright
Evaluation: Wright is the best homegrown (non-pitcher) talent the team has produced since Darryl Strawberry, with the potential to surpass even Darryl on his way to a hall-of-fame career at the one position that’s historically been the hardest for the team to fill, third base. Amos Otis and Nolan Ryan were sacrificed in the quest to acquire a regular third baseman; Wright solidifies this position and, at nearly 28, is entering his prime as a more mature player. Wright should be the second homegrown player to enter the HOF as a Met (Piazza, after all, was raised a Dodger but should see his cap feature an NY logo), and he has shown great character on the heals of an excellent comeback season in 2010. Now adapting to the specs of Citi Field, Wright enters the 2011 campaign as one of the few “sure things” on a club riddled with question marks, and represents the only untouchable spot on the roster. With Aderlin Rodriguez 3-4 years away from the majors, at best, Wrights’ spot in both the line-up and in the hearts of Mets fans should be assured for years to come.
Grade: A-
Left Field: Jason Bay
Evaluation: Prior to his injury against the Dodgers it seemed as though Bay was finally adapting to his new team and ballpark (yes I was there in person to see his injury, just like I saw Pedro Martinez’s injury in Florida, and no, I don’t consider myself a jinx – yet!!) Bay is owed too much $$ to trade, and a healthy Bay still represents a solid #5 hitter and left fielder.
Grade: Incomplete
Center Field: Angel Pagan(??) or Carlos Beltran (??)
Evaluation: Totally depends upon who is the starter. Pagan has done everything asked of him and more. How many players can replace a perennial all-star and grow on the job the way Pagan did last season? Pagan may have performed above expectations last season, but a Center-fielder who can provide you with nearly gold glove-caliber defense, 37 stolen bases, 11 homers, 69 RBI’s, a .290 BA, 80 runs, 31 doubles and 7 triples is nothing to sneeze at. Granted, he still needs to cut down on his strike-outs (97) and increase his walks (44), but with healthy versions of at least Bay and Reyes in the line-up, and less of a burden for Pagan to carry, one has to think he’d continue to grow and develop as a player. If Beltran returns to center, and is back to his “old” self (circa 2008) in a contract year, his contribution of approximately 30 homers, 110 RBI’s, 100+ runs, an OBP around .375 and a slugging percentage around .500 means the Mets would receive above-average stats for this position. A healthy Beltran also creates an interesting situation for Sandy and company – if he’s resigned to another contract for, say, 3 years at around $12 million per (for argument’s sake) with numerous incentives, Pagan then becomes potential trade bait for another starting pitcher (packaged with prospects, of course) and some combo of Duda and Evans could be penciled in for right.
Grade: (With Pagan)- B+ (With Beltran)- Incomplete
Right Field: Angel Pagan (??) or Carlos Beltran (??) – look familiar??
Evaluation: Same thing applies here as it does to Center Field. Either Pagan or Beltran plays here, unless a trade is made, in which case a Lucas Duda might emerge as the leading candidate. Duda projects in similar fashion to Adam Dunn- his bat writes checks that his defense simply can’t cash. But what a bat it might be!!
Grade: (With Pagan)- B (With Beltran)- B
Bench: Justin Turner (INF), Luis Hernandez (INF), Nick Evans (OF/3B), Henry Blanco (C) (??), Chris Carter (OF/1B), Lucas Duda (OF/1B), Scooby &; Scrappy Doo
Evaluation: Too soon to call- it remains to be seen whether Sandy has enough of owner Fred Wilpon’s money left to fill in the roster with veteran talent in key bench positions, or if he’s more inclined (whether out of necessity or desire) to fill it with multi-talented youngsters (nee cheaper!) Evans and Turner deserve chances to play at the major league level, as they’ve done all they could in the minors. Carter is an excellent pinch-hitter, if yet another player without a position. The back-up catcher could be Blanco again, or it could be Thole if another catcher is acquired. Perhaps Ty Wiggington might be available to play a utility role, but more then likely he’ll be too expensive and want one more try at regular playing time.
Grade: Incomplete (Pending how the roster is filled out.)
Rotation: Johan Santana (DL), RA Dickey, Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, TBD#1, TBD#2 (Dillon Gee??)
Evaluation: Sandy admitted today that he can’t expect Santana to be ready for opening day, and for once we’re not only getting public honesty but internal honesty as well (as in- Sandy not lying to himself). It’s refreshing, but also shines a brighter spotlight on the team’s rotation, a strength in 2010 that could easily become a mess in 2011. Without Santana there is no clear-cut SP1, and, for that matter, it’s debatable whether or not Pelfrey, who was very inconsistent last year, is an SP2 or still an SP3. Takahashi, last years’ spot-starter, is gone, so that takes him out of the equation.
Dickey was lights-out good and great in the clubhouse, but can we expect the same productivity 2 years in a row? Possibly, but that still doesn’t make up for the gaping hole at the front of the rotation. With money being tight this off-season, there’s an excellent chance that Dillon Gee will be looked at to be the SP5; I pray that Alderson will show restraint and keep Mejia at the AAA level for the entire season, letting him work on every facet of his game under less pressure. Niese can be a faster version of Bob Ojeda for this staff- great off-speed stuff, excellent movement, and can actually hit low-to-almost-mid 90’s on the gun.
That leaves one, and possibly 2 spaces, depending upon their plans for Gee. My suggestions? Well, Chris Young, coming from the spacious Petco is a free agent, is someone who played under Paul DePodesta’s watch the past few years and is an excellent fly-ball pitcher. He may be sign-able for somewhere in the $6-$8 million ballpark, with incentives, or just about the entire amount available (so we hear) for the Mets to make additions with. I’d stay away from “projects” such as Brandon Webb and Justin Duchscherer, unless either was willing to play for a very incentive-laden contract with a very low guarantee, which probably won’t happen (and we all know how the Ben Sheets contract situation played out last season).
We’ve been hearing the name James Shields a lot lately, and he would
seem a logical target for the Met brass, especially since he’s a workhorse, has #1 type stuff and would be a long-term acquisition as his original contract, signed in 2008, has 2 more years to go plus 3 club-based options. Matt Garza would be the preferable target, but I don’t think the new regime would want to part with the majority of their top prospects to acquire his services, and we don’t have a starting position player (outfield, first base) to trade for Garza’s services, stopping that deal in its tracks. Trading Shields would open up some salary relief for the Jays, so that they could re-sign Carlos Pena and add some bullpen help without going over their budget. Some young players in return (start with F-Mart and/or Duda) would help restock other areas of concern for the Rays, who have a wealth of starting pitching to trade from, something not too many clubs can boast these days.
In sum, the only thing we know about the 2011 rotation is that 3 spots are set (Pelf, Niese & Dickey) and there are 2 openings. After that, anything seems to be possible.
Grade: Incomplete (But without Santana it couldn’t go above a “B” anyway).
Bullpen: Francisco Rodriguez, Bobby Parnell, Manny Alvarez, Pat Misch, Brant Rustich (???), Inspector Gadget and Hoyt Wilhelm.
Evaluation: Well, let’s see- we’ve lost one great set-up man/spot starter in Takahashi; we’ll probably lose the appearances-leader of the past 3 years in Feliciano, of whom it’s speculated that both the Yankees and Phils are heavily interested in (UGH!!); 2 months ago, the team WISHED it could get rid of closer, K-Rod; Parnell hits 100+ on the radar gun but remains unreliable; Misch is a AAAA starter who could fill the role Takahashi did last season; Alvarez can also bring it, and remains a wild card; and Rustich, coming back from a tough surgery, probably won’t be ready to hit the majors until mid-season, as best as we can tell. That leaves holes the size of the Grand Canyon in the bullpen, and there aren’t enough youngsters (Eric Niesen, etc) ready to step into a role with the big league club. The free agent market features a ton of middle relievers, but the problem has been inconsistent performance from that position over the years, making it highly advisable to stay away from over-paying at that position. This is the biggest mess facing the new regime, and it’ll be very interesting to see how they fill this part of the roster out with a (very) restricted budget.
Grade: Incomplete (how could you offer a grade when there’s only 2 guaranteed roles out of 6-7? And we can't afford to sign either Wilhelm or Gadget, so there you go!)
Manager: Shortly before posting this, we all heard that Alderson has decided to bring back 4 candidates for a final managerial interview- Backman (yay), Hale, Melvin and Collins. As we discussed in part one, Collins still looks like the eventual candidate, but we’re still keeping a candle lit in hopes that Backman still has a chance.
Going back to my original premise for writing this post, as my friend Steve can probably now see, the new team of Alderson-DePodesta-Ricciardi has their hands full, so being concerned about the GM flying to Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic is the least of things we have to worry about. However, with this group running the show, at least we stand a better chance of not only filling in a roster but doing so with a plan that both fits the ballpark the team plays in as well as a budget that makes sense for the organization in both the short and long-term. B
But Steve’s not wrong in his feelings; not after so many promises left unfulfilled over the years (does anyone still remember “Generation K”?? How about Shawn Abner, Alex Escobar and Tim Leary??) I ask you, Steve (and everyone Steve represents, or just about every Met fan in the world) to give Sandy a chance to make things right, and let him try to right this wayward ship once and for all. We gave Frank Cashen that chance once before, and it worked. Let’s support Sandy and company for now, because being a Met fan, as we all know, means being filled with hope for what might be…
Coming Soon: Part 3 - The Farm System, The Final Four Mgr Candidates & Why We are Met Fans!
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