The Mack Report – Prospects #36-40

The Mack Report – Prospects #36-40

November 18, 2010



36. RP Scott Moviel – 23/yrs. old – Moviel has had a tough time as a starter, for a bunch of reasons including injuries. Came out of high school with a big rep, compared to Andrew Brackman. He’s 6-11 with a 90+ sitting fastball. 2008 was spent mostly dinged up (10-8, 4.25 for Gnats/Lucy) and 2009 wasn’t much better, injury wise (4-5, 3.56 for GCL-rehab and Lucy). 2010 was just more bad news. I wouldn’t give up on this guy and he’s make quite the imposing member of the Binghamto bullpen that would include the other Met-beast, Brant Rustich.

2011: Binghamton bullpen

2012: Depends… a spot on 2011 could mean the Mets pen

1-1-10: - Forecast: Moviel is one of those forgotten prospects that falls down the chain because of a little thing called surgery. A knee injury cost him almost three months of the season this year, but he has bounced back well. Frankly, his 3-year minor league totals are still impressive: 14-15, 3.89, 1.34. I have him projected as the SP5 in Binghamton, simply because with the graduating class from Savannah all going to St. Lucie, there’s no room for him to repeat there. If he’s healthy, he should be ready for the jump.

5-5-10: - Stock Down: Moviel was a big-time second rounder who has played scuffed up for the past two seasons. Everyone was looking forward for a strong start this year from Scott, but it simply hasn’t happened: 3-starts, 10.29, 16-H, 9-BB, in 14.0-IP… only 9-K. He would be in jeopardy of losing his gig if it wasn’t for the fact that most of the so-called Mets SP prospects have been off to a slow start this season.

6-30-10: - Moviel has been removed from the St. Lucie rotation and threw three relief innings last night following Brad Holt. Frankly, his stat line wasn’t much different from when he was starting: 3.0-IP, 2-ER, 4-H, 3-BB, only 1-K. His 2010 ERA now stands at 6.32.
8-20-10: - I don’t know if you noticed, but once-prospect Scott Moviel got back on the horse Thursday night and threw four scoreless, one-hit innings for St. Lucie. The Mets haven’t been too lucky with second round picks in the 2000s. Remember Matt Durkin? Anyway, Moviel rose as high as #7 on some of the prospect lists and simply has never come back properly from knee surgery. The Mets are far from giving up on the 6-11 lefty, if for no other reason than, how many times do you get your hands on a seven foot lefty? Numbers so far for the season at Lucy: Only 22-years old… 23-G, 2-6, 5.78, 1.70, 80-K, 95.0-IP, 52-BB.

37. SP Steve Matz – 19/yrs. old – Frankly, I was shocked when Matz' name came over my computer on draft day. I don’t claim to be a draft expert, but I do catalog a ton of information from the experts, and I simply didn’t have anything on this guy. Then I read he has an “average” fastball, and a change-up with “little consistency”. Well, I did some more reading, found out he has a plus curve and has hit 94 and I started to hope the Mets had a rough diamond here. Then the poor guy suffers an 80% tear and goes under for TJS. Is he a prospect? Did the Mets know something most of the pundits didn’t? We’ll begin to find out next spring, probably in Brooklyn.

2011: Brooklyn rotation

2012: St. Lucie rotation

Notes:
Matz was the first player drafted by the Mets in the 2009 draft. I had him as the 97th most talented lefty available for the draft, which, if I was correct, would have put him around a 35th round pick. The Mets signed him with an $800,000 bonus and will most probably assign him to Brooklyn where all the future prospects go.
From 8-31-10 interview with Matz:- Mack: - Last question Steve. I'm sure your short term goals for 2011 is to simply get back on the mound and throw your first professional pitch. My question is simple... on what Mets team do you hope to end the 2011 season with?

Matz: - I would love to play in Brooklyn. It's short season and thats just about when I'll be back. Also, it's close to home which would be awesome. It's one of the cooler places to play in the whole minor league system. Hopefully everything will go smoothly, but thats just my preference. I know the Mets have a good handle on where they put players so ultimately I'll be happy anywhere.

9-1-10: - 2011 Projection: - There's no rush here. The Mets are loaded with lower level SPs and it simply takes time to recover from TJS. The Mets have 800,000 reasons to use 2011 as a year to keep Steve on a strict pitch count. I too expect him to play Brooklyn, not because he's from New York, but the Mets will want to keep an eye on him there. Expect him back around June with a couple of weeks on the GCL squad so Rick Waits can spend some quality time with him, followed by a plane ride to Coney...


38. SP Armondo Rodriguez - I have been very high on A-Rod in the past, but that was due to a great season, not great prospect tools. As a prospect, he’s a middle of the road SP5 candidate that has to rely on control, not velo. So far, he hasn’t had a bad Mets season… 2009: 5-2, 2.74, 12 starts, 1-CG, 60-K, 29-BB, 62.1-IP… 2010 for Brooklyn: 8-4, 1.91, 0.93, 15-starts, 60-K, 15-BB, 89.2-IP. Led the NY-Pen League in lowest ERA and lowest WHIP. Can’t do better than that.

2011: St. Lucie rotation

2012: Binghamton pen

A-Rod Notes:

1-1-10 Forecast: Like other players in the DSL or VSL system, there is very little press on them. Rodriquez is slowly moving up the chain without much fanfare. There is a good chance he will return to Savannah for the 2010 season, but I’m sure he’ll end the year in Florida, with St. Lucie. Keep an eye on him. One of many talented young relievers currently in the system.

8-1-10: - We first jumped on the A-Rod bandwagon when Omar Minaya told all of us in ST that he was “another Jenrry Mejia”. I made sure he was the first player I hunted out at the Savannah Sand Gnats press luncheon the day before the season started and I’ve been keeping an eye on him since. Last night, he did well again… 7.0-IP, 0-R, 4-H, 7-K, 1-BB… seasonall he’s: 21-G, 6-6, 113-1-IP, 3.18, 1.11, 102-K, 39-BB. He’sthis season at 22-years old and I expect him to anchor the St. Lucie rotation come next spring.

10-6-10: - 2011 Forecast: - this is the kid that Omar Minaya said would be the next Jenrry Mejia. The only problem with that is, currently, Rodriquez sits around 5-mph less than Jenrry. Still, the kid did a masterful job in 2010 and will pitch next spring as a 23-year old. I expect that to be St. Lucie, due to the log jam at Binghamton.



39. SP Gonzalez Germen – Germen had a mysterious ending to a decent 2010 in which he was sent to Savannah, pitched well in two outings, than put on the shelf with a “paper move”. Technically, he was put back on the Kingsport roster, even though the K-Port season is over. I did find out that he now is at the D-R academy and any injury he had at the end of last year is in the past.  

2011: Brooklyn rotation

2012: Savannah rotation

Germen notes:

Germen was signed in 2007 as a non-drafted free agent.

Germen had an impressive debut in 2008 with the DSL Mets: 5-2, 1.34, 0.76 in 15 games, 14 starts. Also, 70 Ks in 74.0 IP and only allowed 11-ER, 41-H, and 15-BB. He limited the opposition to a .159 BA and did not give up a home run in 258 at bats against him.

Germen won the Sterling Award as the top Met player for the 2008 DSL team. Everyone expected him to come stateside in the spring; however, he stayed a part of the DSL Mets to start the season. After dominating in eight starts (5-0, 1.80, 54-K in 45.0-IP), the visa came through and off he went to the GCL Mets, where he first, was shaky, (0-1, 9.00, in one game), and then disabled until the next to last game of the season, in which he tossed two scoreless innings.

For the entire 2009, Germen went 5-1, 2.29, in ten games, nine starts.

Forecast: We’ve been following Germen since the first time he pitched for the Mets and, in our opinion, he’s the most talented pitcher coming out of the DSL chain in the past two years. There obviously was a shut down injury which we can’t get any info on… by the way, getting info out of the Mets Florida camp is harder than the getting it out of the Russian Mafia. Because of this injury, there’s a good chance he will repeat rookie ball, but I’d sure like to see him in Brooklyn next spring.



40. SP Collin McHugh – 24/yrs. old – McHugh was not promoted at the all-star break to St. Lucie, like eight of his teammates, and it looks like that non-move worked out in his favor. His old rotation buddies struggled at the higher level, while he could perfect his game in the Sally. He’s one of those many SP5 candidates, and I’m sure he’s off to Lucy in the spring. The reason he’s ranked ahead of many… 129-Ks last season in 132.1 innings, with only 38 walks.
2011: St. Lucie rotation

2012 Binghamton rotation
McHugh notes:
1-1-10 Forecast: - McHugh is one of those under-the-radar kind of pitchers that just creeped up this year with great stats. Normally, some of these kids go straight to Lucy the next year, but the “Savannah Four” should prevent that from happening this time. Look for McHugh to join most of his Clone buddies in Savannah come March.

8-6-10: - McHugh is one of the many talented players to come out of Savannah this year, but, as we have learned so many times over the years, pitching well in A ball to youngsters is a long way from the majors. Needless to say, McHugh has impressed us this year, especially Wednesday night when he went: 6.0-IP, 0-ER, 7-K, 2-BB, 4-H. Seasonally, he hasn’t had much support from his teammates; however he still is posting a respectful 3-8, 3.56. 1.40, with 98-K in 112.0-IP.

9-14-10: - 2011 Forecast: McHugh will obviously move on to St. Lucie in the spring and begin the very diffifcut climb throw both the A+ and AA levels. These are the levels where most of your control pitchers fall out of grace unless they develop addition velocity on their fast ball, or deliver nastier secondary stuff. We won't know what the Mets have here until around the spring of 2013, but, in Collin's case, it may be worth the wait.



So…

Here’s what our rosters look like so far for the 2011 season, based on 2012 need:



Buffalo (9):
Rotation: (1) - SP Jenrry Mejia
Relievers: (2) – Manny Alvarez, Jose De La Torre

Catchers: (0) –

Infielders: (4) – 2B Josh Satin, SS Reese Havens, IF Jordany Valdespin, 3B Zach Lutz

Outfielders: (2) – Fernando Martinez, Kirk Nieuwenhuis



Binghamton (7):
Rotation: (2) – Jeurys Familia, Robert Carson
Relievers: (4) – Nick Carr, Brant Rustich, Brad Holt, Scott Moviel

Catchers: (0) -
Infielders (1) – 3B, Wilmer Flores

Outfielders (0) -

St. Lucie (9):
Rotation (4) – Matt Harvey, Kyle Allen, Yohan Almonte, Collin McHugh
Relievers (2) – Eric Goeddel, Ryan Fraser

Catchers (0) –

Infielders (1) – SS Robbie Shields

Outfielders (2) – Cesar Puello, Corey Vaughn



Savannah (4):
Rotation: (1) – Greg Peavey
Relievers: (0) –

Catchers: (0) -

Infielders: (1) – 3B Aderlin Rodriquez

Outfielders: (2) – Darrell Ceciliani, Javier Rodriguez