November 17, 2010
I want to discuss a few things before we continue with breaking down the current Mets prospects, and where I think they should play, in 2011, based on where they project to play in 2012.
We’ve covered the top 30 prospects so far. The first thing that stands out is the fact that the majority of the Mets minor league talent is now graduating to the top of the class. Nine of the top 30 prospects will play at the AAA level in 2011, easily the first time that has happened over the seven years I’ve been doing this. The Buffalo team looks like a killer and could easily win their league come next September.
Secondly, I’ve taken all emotion out of this analysis and am basing the list on old-fashioned time-tested scouting tools. There’s no FIP or WOBA in this report (not that there’s anything wrong with it). Frankly, I wish I had a saber-person on this site doing the same thing I’m doing, based on the new tools of baseball (any takes?).
We’re starting to get into a couple of areas worth discussing at this point:
-we’ve reached the point where both the first and second tier of prospects are listed. No, we are nowhere near the “organizational filler” level; however, from this point on futures become sketchy at best. Now, don’t get pissed if you’re one of the players out there that is reading this and your name hasn’t been listed yet. It’s just my opinion that, beginning with #31, we’re not dealing anymore with tools and ceiling, but simply stats and recent results. This can still get you to the majors, but most probably in a secondary role. Oh, one other thing to keep in mind. Many great people think I don’t know what the hell I’m doing, so that’s in your favor also.
-if I’m right, and “Sandy and Company” build their board in this fashion, we are beginning to bunch up at certain positions on certain teams. This will happen; however, we can’t change the criteria we have chosen to make this list. A perfect example is infielders at the AAA level. We already have four players there, Jordany Valdespin , Reese Havens, Josh Satin, and Zach Lutz. None of these guys should be playing any longer at the AA level, but there’s only three positions on the field for the four of them. Lutz has a lock on third base, and, though Satin is dabbling at first base, he’s still a second baseman. Reese and Spin can play both short and second, but you don’t leave one of your top prospects on the bench every day, do you? No, this is a problem the Mets will have to revisit if the Rule V draft doesn’t gooble up Valdespin. It also will affect where we slot the next group of infielders that come out in this report.
Lastly, we can take our first look at how the top 30 breaks out, by position: Starting pitchers: 6… relief pitchers: 6… Infielders: 6… Outfielders: 4… and catchers: 0. A little weak for outfielders and for shit in catchers. I’m not a big fan on drafting by position, but the “new Mets” might want to make an exception come June 2011 and call out the name of Blake Swihart or Peter O’Brien when their first round pick comes up. And yes, I plan on reminding everyone as often as I can the mistake made in not drafting Yazmani Grandal last year.
Building the 2012 Team:
31. OF Eudy Pina – 20/yrs. old – No, I am not obsessed with putting all the international kiddies on this list too early. Frankly, if they were born in the US, they would have been signed out of high school from the draft. Pino looks to be the real deal, and hit .310 for the 2010 DSL Mets. He will definitely come stateside in 2010.
2011: one of the rookie ball teams
2012: because of his age, St. Lucie.
Old notes:
7-2-10: - Pina made the hit list today for two reasons. One, he’s the first member of the DSL-Mets-1 team to log 100 at bats, and secondly, his stats are already showing that he’s not long for the DSL team. So far, his season has been super: 23-R, 9-2B, 2-HR, 23-RBI, .350/.432/.560/.992… and 16-SB. I would expect to see him come stateside before the end of the GCL-Mets season.
9-15-10: - The 19-year-old led the team in average (.310), runs scored (42), hits (77), doubles (14), triples (four), home runs (three), RBI (45), and stolen bases (29).
32. SS Robbie Shields - 23/yrs. old - Shields was a big time draft prospect that was projected to go as a supplement first rounder (3rd round, 2009, Mets). He also was always projected to not wind up a shortstop and either play third or second, depending upon what scouting report you read. He started off horribly at Brooklyn in 2009, which turned out to be an injury that required TJS. He rebounded to play the 2010 season, including 162-AB for Savannah, where he hit .290, 5-HR, 256-RBIs in 162-AB. I expect Shields to continue his road back and don’t be surprised he doesn’t wind up in Queens, in 2013, playing in a utility role.
2011: playing shortstop for Lucy
2012: playing second base for Buffalo
2010 notes on Robbie:
6-28-10: - Shields hit his first home run on Sunday and continues to fight back from last year’s TJS He was a big time prospect, as you will read below, but is way behind in his development. He’s playing DH right now and is playing GCL ball at 22-years old.
7-13-10: - Shields was a hot-shot prospect before he had to go under the knight for TJS… he quietly has returned this year, starting out with the GCL Mets and, frankly, he’s really heating up, batting leadoff and playing shortstop. On Monday, Shields went 3-4, scored one run, and knocked in three runs. He finished the day with a seasonal .293 BA… this includes going 7-12 in the last three games.
7-25-10: - Shields was transferred from being a rehabbing SS for GCL, to a part time SS for Lucy and now a full time SS for the Sand Gnats. The ex-prospect needs to play every day to get back his strength and he’ll get that opportunity in Savannah. In the pecking order, he’s currently behind Wilmer Flores. Wilfredo Tovar, and Jordany Valedespin in development.
10-7-10 - 2011 Forecast: - Hopefully, we won't have another Shawn Bowman on our hands here. Shields is a bonefide prospect who has fell down the pecking order due to a serson ending injury. No sweat. He got right back on the horse last season for Savannah, and a good year in 2011 at Lucy will get the writers writing about him again.
33. OF Cory Vaughn – 22/yrs. old – Well, I’ve come a long way, baby, especially after basically saying this was a scum-sucking pig pick in the 2010 draft. I was wrong. Vaughn looks to be one of those late bloomers that simply wasn’t motivated in college. That’s a nice way of saying that 2010 wasn’t the aberration. Either way, he’s going to play in an all-star outfield in St. Lucie next spring.
2011: St. Lucie
2012: Binghamton
2010 notes on Vaughn (nix my draft analysis):
6-30-10: - Vaughn hit his fourth home run of the young Cyclone season Tuesday night and we need to put him on the watch list. Included in the stuff I compiled on him below is my analysis of how I felt about thw Mets picking him. My thoughts were similar to what I originally said a few years ago about Ike Davis, so this should be good news for both the Mets and you fans out there. Sure, there is only 43 at bats, but you have to respect a .651 slugging percentage and a 1.036 OPS.
7-19-10: - It’s not the two hits he got on Monday that got him this stock up… nor is it the fact that one was another home run, which he leads the league in producing. Additionally, it’s not the fact that he now has his batting average up to .291. No, none of that earned him this listing. It was the fact that he had two outfield assists during the game also, throwing out runners at both third and second base. That’s an outfield performance we don’t see very often in the Mets’ minor leagues.
7-31-10: - Vaughn continues to lead the league in home runs, hitting his 10th last night. Seasonal stats are now: .310/.401/.581/.982, with an impressive 21-BB. Vuaghn continues to quiet critics, including myself, and seems a lock on the Sterling Award winner this season for the Clones.
10-8-10: - 2011 Forecast: - Well, we don't have to spend anymore time on what Keith Law and I thought of this pick. The bottom line is I was wrong and Vaughn looks like he's a live one. Both he and Darrell Ceciliani made headlines playing the Cyclones outfield last season, but I have only Vaughn going straight to Lucy for the beginning of the 2011 season. That should be some kind of outfield with Vaughn, Matt den Dekker (who plays CF?), and Cesar Puello.
34. SP Kyle Allen – 21/yrs. old – Allen is the first of many SP4/5 candidates that currently exist in the system. The Mets, like most teams, are filled with starters tat top out around 90 and touch 92 at best. Why? Well, simply put, there are only so many people on earth that can throw it faster and still hit the barn. Allen seems to have the talent to rise above the pack. He started strong for the GCL Mets in 2008 (2.12, 1.00, 11.91 K/9) and all the pundits, including BA and Sickles, jumped on the bandwagon. 2009 was a decent year in Savannah (9-6, 3.45, but the beginning of a control problem (51-BB, 111-K, 125.1-IP) was beginning to surface. His command problems continued in 2010, additionally saddled with a cracked vertebrae. I see him repeating at the A+ level
2011: Back at Lucy
2012: Binghamton Rotation if 2011 is okay… Buffalo if 2011 season is excellent
11-30-10: - Allen hasn’t had the greatest year of his career, but he did put it together last night against Brevard County. Stats: 6.1-IP, 1-ER, 5-H, but 0-K, 3-BB, and 2-HBP. Allen still remains a long-range prospect; however, his 5.03 A+ ERA won’t cut the mustard for long.
End of 2010 season recap: - It’s been tempting to give up on Allen over the past two seasons, but I have to give him a pass for pitching with a cracked vertebrae this season. I’ve had one of them and I can’t imagine picking up a rubber band, no less pitching. Allen was a major prospect who most of baseball thought would never sign. The Mets drafted him anyway, halfway through the draft, and got lucky with the signing, but it hasn’t translated to success yet. I don’t see him getting any winter work and he’ll probably start over in St. Lucie come the spring of 2011.
35. RP Jose De La Torre – 25/yrs. old – De La Torre has quietly put up some very decent numbers , especially in 2010 where he split time between Binghamton and Buffalo. Combined stats: 3-2, 2.69, 51-appearances, 80-K, 34-BB, 70.1-IP. Conservatively, I have him starting off in Buffalo, but there is an outside chance he will makethe Queens pen out of ST. . He has a 4-seam 90-91 fastball, 2-seam FB, change-up, and his go-to pitch is a nasty slider.
2011: Will start the season in Buffalo
2012: Mets pen
1-1-10: - Normally, a 26-yard old pitcher at the AA level would toss him into the AAAA bin, but not relief pitchers. De La Torre had done little wrong in the Mets system, and has actually come back stronger after TJS surgery. He had no formble with the AA prospect-rich lineups in 2009. He should start off in Buffalo in the spring, but there is a chance they’ll hold him back in Binghamton. Either way, he looks to make a run at a Mets bullpen slot in 2011.
4-21-10: - Stock Up: De La Torre has picked up where he left off last season going 0-0, 1.04, in 8.2-IP for the B-Mets. It also includes 12-K’s, four of which were last night in his two perfect innings pitched. Many of us thought we might have seen the last of him when he was operated on for TJS and missed the entire 2008 season, but Jose came back strong last year, first going 3-3, 2.77, 26-G, 3-SV, 35-K, 39.0-IP for St. Lucie, followed by late season stats of 3-2, 2.67, 18-G, 2-SV, 37-K, 30.1-IP for Binghamton. De La Torre is playing 2010 as a 25-year old, and features a 4-seam 90-91 fastball, a 2-seam FB, a change-up, and, his go-to pitch, a nasty slider. Oh yeah… he’s a right handed reliever… know anybody that could use one?
7-22-10: - The Mets are looking for some relief help and maybe they just need to make a phonecall to Buffalo and ask Jose De La Torre to hop on a shuttle. He is once again putting together a great year at AAA… (1-1, 2.96, in 21-G), after even better numbers for the B-Mets (0-0, 2.05, in 15-G). Last night, he went 2-.1-IP, 0-H, 0-R, and 4-K. De La Torre is only 24-years old and maybe it’s his turn
So…
Here’s what our rosters look like so far for the 2011 season, based on 2012 need:
Buffalo (9):
Rotation: (1) - SP Jenrry MejiaRelievers: (2) – Manny Alvarez, Jose De La Torre
Catchers: (0) –
Infielders: (4) – 2B Josh Satin, SS Reese Havens, IF Jordany Valdespin, 3B Zach Lutz
Outfielders: (2) – Fernando Martinez, Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Binghamton (6):
Rotation: (2) – Jeurys Familia, Robert Carson
Relievers: (3) – Nick Carr, Brant Rustich, Brad Holt
Catchers: (0) -
Infielders (1) – 3B, Wilmer Flores
Outfielders (0) -
St. Lucie (8):
Rotation (3) – Matt Harvey, Yohan Almonte, Kyle Allen
Relievers (2) – Eric Goeddel, Ryan Fraser
Catchers (0) –
Infielders (1) – SS Robbie Shields
Outfielders (2) – Cesar Puello, Corey Vaughn
Savannah (4):
Rotation: (1) – Greg Peavey
Relievers: (0) –
Catchers: (0) -
Infielders: (1) – 3B Aderlin Rodriquez
Outfielders: (2) – Darrell Ceciliani, Javier Rodriguez
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