Tom Brennan - SUBS AND SCRUBS - METS' STARTING PITCHERS
This is the third and final part of the Mets Subs and Scrubs series.
Previously, I looked at Mets 1) offensive player and 2) bullpen subs and scrubs - the fellows who don't start regularly. The results for both were not pretty - pretty ghastly, actually.
We know that the starting pitcher front-liners did quite well:
Jake a Cy Young;
A Norse god (Noah) who missed time but went 13-4;
Big Zach being one of baseball's best starters in the 2nd half;
Stevie Wonder Matz doing OK (sub 4.00 ERA), but with little run support, and
Jason and the Varganauts, not having a good year, but one which might have been largely due to his early season malady.
Jake a Cy Young;
A Norse god (Noah) who missed time but went 13-4;
Big Zach being one of baseball's best starters in the 2nd half;
Stevie Wonder Matz doing OK (sub 4.00 ERA), but with little run support, and
Jason and the Varganauts, not having a good year, but one which might have been largely due to his early season malady.
Matt Harvey filled in for Jason V, and had one fine start and 3 others where he surrendered 25 hits and 14 runs in 16 innings. He went to Cincinnati, and like so many traded dudes before him, did better post-trade, 7-7, 4.50.
The above 6 arms started 140 of the Mets' 162 games.
The 6 had an ERA well under 3.50 - a top 5 MLB performance.
The above 6 arms started 140 of the Mets' 162 games.
The 6 had an ERA well under 3.50 - a top 5 MLB performance.
Let's move on - who else started, but did so as a "sub and scrub"?
Seth Lugo, who is not actually a sub or a scrub, but an excellent reliever/starter, as one might expect was solid: 1-2, 3.91 in 5 starts.
Corey Oswalt? Also quite decent - 2-3, 4.74 in 12 starts. A pleasant surprise.
The "not-so-goods" were limited - thankfully - they failed:
PJ Conlon, Chris Flexen, Drew Gagnon, and Jerry Blevins combined for 4 starts, spanning 15 innings and (ouch) 20 runs.
PJ Conlon, Chris Flexen, Drew Gagnon, and Jerry Blevins combined for 4 starts, spanning 15 innings and (ouch) 20 runs.
Conclusion:
Thanks in large part to Messrs. Oswalt and Lugo, the Mets starter subs and scrubs were passable, if not great, and did little damage to the Mets' cause.
My overall starter sub/scrub grade: C to C+
My overall starter sub/scrub grade: C to C+
If the Mets, as constructed, can get about 140 starts out of their top 5 again in 2019, it is likely that the Mets will not be damaged by the subs and scrubs starters.
But this organization, right now, has little MLB-ready starting pitching depth beyond Oswalt.
Another quality starter would reduce "Starter Risk", and to me would be a good investment for 2019 - sign someone else who can be adequate as a starter AND reliever.
But this organization, right now, has little MLB-ready starting pitching depth beyond Oswalt.
Another quality starter would reduce "Starter Risk", and to me would be a good investment for 2019 - sign someone else who can be adequate as a starter AND reliever.
My overall grade for the Mets in 2018 for the 3 categories of subs and scrubs - 1) hitters, 2) bullpen and 3) fill-in starters - was a D-.
65 win teams get D- performance from their scrubbies. Winning teams don't.
A winning team (i.e., post season attainment) needs that sub/scrub grade to be an A or B. Brodie needs to get the collective Subs and Scrubs up to a grade B or better.
Simply, the Mets must spend enough on its subs and scrubs to ensure that B or better happens. Or expect similar poor results from the 2019 subs and scrubs.
65 win teams get D- performance from their scrubbies. Winning teams don't.
A winning team (i.e., post season attainment) needs that sub/scrub grade to be an A or B. Brodie needs to get the collective Subs and Scrubs up to a grade B or better.
Simply, the Mets must spend enough on its subs and scrubs to ensure that B or better happens. Or expect similar poor results from the 2019 subs and scrubs.
6 comments:
A number of the scrubs are rightfully in danger of losing their 40-man roster spots
Reese - so true.
Think like this: how many of these guys would have been playing for the Yanks, Astros, or Red Sox last season? Not many at all.
Many had a chance to get their feet wet - others winding up their long careers - but any of the non-retirees will have to hit camp like a house on fire to make this team - or even play for it at all this season.
Gio Gonzalez, whose CitiField stats may be the best of any pitcher there since the place opened, is rife for the signing. As a depth piece for this rotation, to me, he's a no-brainer. How much better would having him throwing regularly at CitiField make the Mets? Probably a whole lot. What are they waiting for? (I don't have his exact totals, but as of an April 2018 win there he was 11-1 with a 1.4-something lifetime ERA there -- I know he subsequently lost at least one game there, but isn't this a guy you want pitching for you in this ballpark?)
Dave Schulps, an excellent point in going beyond the average stats of a ballplayer. I did not remember that about Gio, but it is sure worth considering.
Tom, re: Citifield Hitting
See, I told you that I miss Shea Stadium still! Should suffice.
Mack, re: Jed Lowrie Signing
Like you, I know what this could mean for Jeff McNeil. Lowrie is 35 April 17, 2019, can still hit homeruns okay, but Jeff to me was the best 2nd half hitter in 2018 and we've both seen enough baseball to know that he will develop even more. Plus, Jeff steals bases and plays the game at a higher level of understanding than most. There's talk online about Jeff playing some outfield. But what was wrong with him on second base?
I get the "win now approach" and concur with it totally. This isn't the lost ship Knicks, Nets, Giants or Jets. But at what price do you institute "win now" with a player who can hit you .325 BA every season out may be the correct question now.
To me, great teams have both a few key veterans to lead by example, and then too some youth for now and seasons to come. Smooth transitions guaranteed season to season like the '90's Braves.
Before Lowrie happened, I was sort of hoping for either Mike Minor or Clay Buchholz added in, either one to start in-place of Vargas who would then go to longer relief where he is needed most I felt.
I know the Mets had his cousin Tyler, and that didn't go so well back then. But Clay was 7-2 last season with the DBacks and posted a 2.01 ERA over that time. Clay also had 81 strikeouts in 98 innings and a very wholesome 1.037.
Clay Buchholz is not entirely consistent, but when on (like last season and seasons in the past with the Red Sox) he is awesome good.
I hope that the Mets consider either Mike Minor in a trade or Clay Buchholz who is a free agent right now. Clay might be willing to sign a minor league deal and come in and show everyone that he is still a really good starting pitcher.
Why all this concern on my part?
Because the bottom two were a combined 12-20 last season, with a combined ERA of around 4.80 ERA.
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