Reese Kaplan -- Who's On First?

Recently the prediction threads have begun for the number of games each team is projected to win in 2019.  Even the Las Vegas oddsmakers are chiming in somewhat prematurely when no one has yet gotten to Spring Training nor finalized their rosters.  Injuries are bound to happen, free agents are likely to be signed, even that quaint if seldom used maneuver called a “trade” could take place.  Even the stuck-in-neutral Sandy Alderson once consummated player swaps in late Spring Training to bring Jerry Blevins and Alex Torres to Queens. 

So right now, to most observers, there are a number of question marks as to who is coming north with the team, who is starting in some positions and who might not even be here when the national anthem plays in CitiField on April 4^th against Washington.  One of the most open battles is the one for who will man 1^st base when the season begins.  Let’s take a look at who’s currently here:

While everyone has been saying all the right things about Peter Alonso and his opportunity to win the 1^st base job outright from Spring Training, collusive owners have taught us that talented players with All Star potential must be withheld from the majors for 3+ weeks to gain that extra year of financial control.  Will this artificial delay hurt the man’s development or impact his Rookie of the Year chances?  Certainly not.  It will not even likely have a significant impact on the standings.  Put me in the column that his chances of starting at 1^st base on Opening Day roughly mirror that of people giving up their K-Cups for ecological reasons.  It’s possible, but highly unlikely.  Also, they would need to clear a 40-man roster spot for him and while players like Drew Gagnon and others of that ilk are likely expendable, it’s yet another roadblock for immediate promotion.

With Todd Frazier apparently now out of a job at 3B after the signing of Jed Lowrie, I would fully expect him to get the first shot at Keith Hernandez’ old stomping grounds.  The rationale would be it gets him (and his $9 million paycheck) steady playing time.  It might also pique some other club’s interest in him to solve a corner infield or DH need. 

Dominic Smith is a very distant possibility to start at 1B.  He’s a natural first baseman and arguably the strongest defensive player the Mets can trot out there.  However, he’s become something of a persona non grata with the club and his stewardship of the position would only serve to postpone an inevitable return to AAA.  His 2018 numbers were decidedly down from his stellar 2017 and his major league line thus far of .210/14/37 in 310 ABs doesn’t scream, “Start him!”

J.D. Davis is another candidate for 1^st base, though he’s logged three times as many games at third than he has at 1^st.  (For a frame of reference, that’s not that bad when you consider Todd Frazier is at a ten-fold multiplier in games at 3B vs. 1B).  Davis is the Dom Smith of 2017, having finished his AAA season not only with a batting title but an overall line of .342/17/81 – similar to Smith’s .330/16/76 that season.  One thing that I noted in looking over Davis’ career profile is that he’s evolving, having reduced a season-long strikeout total of 157 over 485 ABs in 2015 to a mere 69 over 333 ABs last year.  With the greater selectivity the batting average has risen, but there's also been a corresponding drop in power.  Chili Davis might approve. 

Then there’s Jeff McNeil.  We all know his outstanding .329 rookie campaign over 60 games.  His problem, of course, is that he’s also primarily a 2^nd or 3^rd baseman.  To shoehorn him into 1^st base would keep his formidable bat in the lineup, but he’s only had 3 games at 1^st in his entire minor league career (and none in the majors).  He’s logged 213 at 2^nd, 151 at 3^rd, 37 at SS and 8 in the OF.  Can he handle 1^st?  Probably.  In fact, I’d have more confidence of making that transition than I would to the OF.  However, with Peter Alonso waiting in the wings I can’t see this route as viable over the long term for McNeil. 

So, in the immortal words of Bud Abbott, “Who’s on first?”