Reese Kaplan -- Wishing & Hoping Is Not a Strategy

I’ve often said that hope and prayer is not a good business strategy, yet it seems as if that is exactly what the new GM has in mind for the Mets’ starting rotation which has not exactly been the stuff about which a term like “Ironman” can rightly be used to describe them.  We had high hopes that the Sandy Alderson strategy of no depth was a thing of the past.  Thus far it appears to have carried over under the new regime. 

In 2018 the Mets used quite a few starting pitchers.  Jacob deGrom was the closest they got to an ironman designation with 32 starts made.  He was followed by the formerly fragile Steven Matz with 30 and Zack Wheeler with 29.  Noah Syndergaard started 25, followed by Jason Vargas with 20.

That meant that over two dozen games were handed over to others to start.  Leading this pack was Corey Oswalt with 12, then you had Seth Lugo with 5, Matt Harvey taking 4, P.J. Conlon with 2, Drew Gagnon and Chris Flexen with 1 apiece. Frankly, this group collectively did its best skunk impression – they stunk. 

So, going into 2019 the Mets again plan to trot out deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Matz and Vargas.  Right now I won’t debate the merits of the overpaid 5^th starter so much as question who is waiting in the wings should injuries or incompetence force the club to look for other arms to start in their place?

• Rule V draft pick Kyle Dowdy is sure to get a long, hard look in Spring Training and may wind up coming north in the pen.  These selections, of course, must remain in the major league 25-man roster for the duration of the season or be offered back to the team from which they were drafted.  A quick look at Dowdy’s minor league career and it makes you wonder why BVW selected him.  Save for his A-ball debut in which he pitched with decent control and a 2.84 ERA, it’s been all downhill for him.  Draft position pedigree aside, you have to take the numbers for what they are and figure he’s not suddenly going to put it together with a change of scenery.  He’s 27-27 with a 3.99 ERA for his minor league career. 

• Chris Flexen wowed many people in 2017 when between St. Lucie and Binghamton he delivered a sparkling 1.76 ERA with a 0.815 WHIP and an eye-popping 6.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  He jumped to the majors when injuries beset the staff and quickly showed he was overmatched, going 3-6 over 9 starts and 5 relief appearances with a ghastly 7.88 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of about 1.  Believe it or not, he was even worse in 2018 in the big leagues with an ERA over 12, a WHIP over 3 and he walked about twice as many as he struck out.  He’s turning 24 this year so there may be some hope out of the pitching hell of Las Vegas but I wouldn’t bet the ranch.  He apparently lost a lot of weight over the winter and is in the proverbial “best shape of his life” but we won’t know if that translates to success on the mound until pitchers and catchers report next month.    

• The elder statesman of the group, Drew Gagnon, made a start last year for the Mets and didn’t distinguish himself.  He wasn’t horrible in AAA, going 6-6 with a 4.57 ERA and a nearly 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  However, at age 29 it’s unlikely he’s going to suddenly “get it” and develop into a solid major league starter.

• Newcomer Walker Lockett has developed in the San Diego Padres organization during his minor league career, including my hometown El Paso Chihuahuas where he manhandled the Las Vegas 51s.  It was one of few really good starts as he finished his 2018 campaign with a 5-9 record, a 4.73 ERA and the only standout positive accomplishment was good control.  He tried (and failed) with the Padres and at this time should be penciled into the Syracuse starting rotation. 

• Big man Corey Oswalt has the most distinguished minor league pitching resume of any of these pretenders, er, contenders for the 6^th starter designation.  His minor league record is a nice 41-22 with a decent 3.68 ERA including a 3.53 K to BB ratio.  He’s not a strikeout artist per se, but did put together a highly impressive 2017 campaign in Binghamton where he went 12-5 with a 2.28 ERA which earned him Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors.  The clock is ticking on the now turning 25-year-old.

• Hector Santiago is left handed.  I guess that’s why he was signed.  The journeyman has been with the White Sox twice, the Angels and the Twins.  Maybe coming to the NL might give him a short-term advantage.  His career ERA is 4.06 which actually is better than a certain $9 million man slated to pitch every 5^th day.  Last year was not good with batters getting on base at a robust 1.5 per 9 IP and the walks killing him which might account for the 4.88 ERA (which, sadly, still is better than what Jason Vargas provided).  At age 31 it’s not likely going to get any better.

• Then there’s Seth Lugo, a tale of two pitchers.  As a reliever he was awesome.  As a starter, not so much.  Moving him into the rotation doesn’t necessarily help and weakens the bullpen.  I hope they get that idea out of their heads except for an emergency start due to unforeseen circumstances where they may not have time to get someone from Syracuse.

So, if you followed these numbers closely, you can see that there is not much there that even matches what Jason Vargas can do.  Consequently, should you lose a Zack Wheeler for several weeks, you’re in for a world of hurt without finding a suitable replacement to stash in AAA or to keep in the bullpen (or flip flop with Vargas going into 2^nd lefty out of the pen mode).  Drew Pomeranz came off the board this past week.  Other teams are recognizing the need for some quality innings in a starting or reserve role.  Hopefully someone will wake BVW up and point out the recent past, the injuries and that the same depth he’s brought to the infield needs to be considered for the starting rotation as well.