Good Morning, fellow Mets fans!
By the "Yoda style" speak of the headline, you are probably not sure where I plan on going this morning with this article. Or, perhaps you are already convinced that I have "a screw loose" and you are not surprised. In any case, keep reading if you want to really see what "crazy" looks like.
We are about to embark on another baseball season and around this time of year, I like to take a few minutes and see where the current edition of the Mets might rank in comparison to the rest of the league. This was a fairly easy exercise in past years, since the team was usually mediocre and the chances of a successful season were pretty low. But, there's a new Sheriff in town and he has made a few bold moves that have a majority of the fan base cautiously optimistic (which is saying something for the average Met fan).
So, instead of comparing the Mets to a divisional rival, or to "that other team" across town, I figured I would go for it and see how we stack up against the defending Champs! Yes, I think our current roster isn't that far away from the Red Sox team that steamrolled the entire league in 2018. See, I told you that this would be a crazy concept, didn't I?
In 2018, the Red Sox had an incredible regular season record of 108-54, followed up by a 11-3 run through the playoffs (NYY, HOU and LAD) that culminated with a World Series title. Furthermore, the teams was consistent all season, averaging 5.4 runs per game while only surrendering 4.0 runs per game (a positive differential of 1.4 runs per game, which is impressive). Oh and their roster returns largely intact for the 2019 season so expectations are still sky high in Boston.
In contrast, the Mets were 77-85 last year which was good enough for fourth place in the National League East (a mere 13 games behind the division winning Braves and "only" 31 games behind the aforementioned Red Sox). The listed record was not good enough for a playoff appearance, nor was the Mets' overall run differential of -0.2 runs per game (4.2 runs scored versus 4.4 runs surrendered). On a positive note, the Mets' 2019 roster will look quite a bit different then the previous year's model, so that's a big step in the right direction.
So, how far is far, then? The initial response would be "31 more wins and 1.6 more runs per game", right? Quoting the immortal Jonathan Quail Higgins of Magnum P.I. fame (the original one, not the subpar reboot), "good God, man....have you lost your mind?" A fair question on the surface, but let's take a quick look at the two team's projected rosters for more details;
Catcher(s) - Leon/Swihart/Vasquez? (BOS)
Ramos/d'Arnaud (NYM)
First Base - Moreland/Pierce (BOS)
Frazier/Smith?/Alonso? (NYM)
Second Base - Pedroia/Holt? (BOS)
Cano (NYM)
Short Stop - Bogaerts (BOS)
Rosario (NYM)
Third Base - Devers (BOS)
Lowrie? (NYM)
OF (all) - Benintendi/Betts/Bradley/Martinez (BOS)
Nimmo/Lagares/Broxton/Conforto/McNeil? (NYM)
SP (all) - Sale/Price/Porcello/Eovaldi/Wright (BOS)
DeGrom/Syndergaard/Wheeler/Matz/Vasquez (NYM)
BP (all) - Barnes/Brasier/Velazquez/Workman/Johnson/Thornburg (BOS)
Gsellman/Lugo/Zamora?/Smith?/Wilson/Familia/Diaz (NYM)
***The projected lineups are still to be determined throughout Spring Training and the rest of free agency, so this is just an early "glance" if you will.
***I also didn't focus on the benches for either team, which can also have an impact over the course of a 162 game season (the Mets didn't either until this year).
On first blush, I don't see that much separation, to be honest. Yes, the Red Sox outfield is amazing and they have a nice lineup that can kill you will a thousand paper cuts. But, I really like our pitching staff and our bullpen is really nice (on paper), especially since the Red Sox still haven't settled on a closer (yet).
Does this mean the Mets are now a 108 win team in my estimation, or that the Red Sox are due for a major regression? Of course not! I may be a bit overly optimistic, but I haven't taken up a crack cocaine habit, either. However, I expect a much better season from our favorite ball club, health permitting, of course. I am also pretty confident that the Red Sox will continue to be a contender in the AL East.
However, what is interesting is that the Red Sox lineup doesn't necessarily jump off the page as a "dominant club", but the sum of their parts are obviously successful. So maybe there is a lesson to be learned here? Depth and balance are extremely valuable and just maybe, our new GM is following their lead?
5 comments:
I am hoping this team can hit at least 30 points higher and score 100 more runs at home than last year's .215 and 274 runs scored at Citi. If not, we will again not have a home field advantage and be fighting uphill all season. Then we can be competitive with the Red Sox.
I just can't get past the painful fact that over the last 7 years, the Mets won only one game more at home than on the road. The Homefield Disadvantage is a major obstacle.
How do you see the X-Factor of Alex Cora vs. Terry II?
In Yoda speak...
Not, we are Boston.
I see us, if the starters hold up, in the 90s, which should be enough to get us some degree of October ball.
I think the jury is still out on our "just past rookie status" manager......with the personnel moves, expectations are much higher. Another poor year and there will be changes in the manager's seat (especially since he is not BVW's pick).
Oh and I agree Mack.....we are not in the Red Sox orbit, per se. But, I think we can contend for the NL East.
I still maintain that the 3 most important factors are pitching, pitching and pitching.
Our pitching IMO is 2nd to none, and our offense is improved. Our pen alone is probably worth 10-15 more Ws than last year's.
We'll be fine, barring MAJOR injuries, and the bench is stronger. 90-95 Ws!
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