Reese Kaplan -- Southpaw Reliever Market Revisited

Everyone (except, thus far, Brodie Van Wagenen) seems to feel the Mets are missing a veteran lefty to complement the short term successful trial of Daniel Zamora as a southpaw weapon coming out of the pen.  Under the previous regime they seemed to feel Jerry Blevins was indeed enough until, of course, he lost his mojo in the first half of 2018 rendering the Mets pretty impotent to combat lefty sluggers like Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman. 

Going into 2019 thus far the Mets are offering up only Daniel Zamora.  Now he’s not exactly chopped liver, but in retrospect you have to wonder what it was the Pirates failed to see in him that they let him go for wildman Josh Smoker.  Yes, Smoker posted some gaudy K numbers including a 14.7 K/9 IP period while a member of the Mets.  However, as he was moved to Detroit late last year his Achilles Heel, control, roared back with a vengeance.  Yes, he did fan 10.8 per 9 IP for the Tigers in AAA, but he also walked an identical 10.8 per 9 IP.  At age 29 it’s fairly unlikely he’s going to suddenly find whatever it is he’s seeking to become a consistently productive pitcher.

Zamora, by contrast, was a college pitcher who began his career in pro ball in 2015 where he showed excellent control, great strikeout numbers and finished the short season with a 2.66 ERA.  To prove it’s not a fluke, as he ascended up the ranks of the Pittsburgh (and later NY Mets) farm systems, his career minor league ERA is a sparkling 2.80 while owning as nearly 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio.  At age 25 he seemed one of the few great finds by the previous front office. 

During his brief 16 game trial in the big leagues (having skipped AAA altogether), he pitched in just 9 innings.  He gave up 6 hits and 3 walks for a 1.000 WHIP, but struck out an eye-popping 16.  He finished the season 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA.  One would think his name is written in ink for one of the open bullpen slots.

On the open market there are a number of available lefty relievers, including old “friend” Oliver Perez, non-tendered Luis Avilan and free agent Tony Sipp. 

Perez has been a mostly successful reliever since his conversion from starter that began in 2012 with the Seattle Mariners.  Save for a two-year stretch where he was fairly putrid for the Washington Nationals, Perez has turned in mostly sub 3.50 ERAs, culminating in his best-ever season for the Cleveland Indians last year with 51 games and a spectacular 1.39 ERA.  What really jumps out at any Mets fan is the fact he had 43 strikeouts (a bit lower than he used to deliver) but merely 7 walks.  Last year’s breakthrough season for the Tribe cost just $778K.  Considering he’ll turn 38 during the 2019 season, he’s likely available for a short-term deal for perhaps $3 million. 

Sometimes when a player gets non-tendered despite delivering on the field you’re left scratching your head wondering why.  (Wilmer Flores is a good example).  Luis Avilan, for his career, has a rather tiny 3.09 ERA and last year for the Phillies earned just $1.39 million.  For that he provided the White Sox and Phils with 70 games in which he struck out 51 and walked 18.  Those are certainly not bad numbers and you’d have to think that even with arbitration he would not have been bumped up much past the $3 million mark.

Tony Sipp has had an up and down career during which he’s either been very good or very bad.  Last year was an example of the former during which he provided the Astros with 54 games of 1.86 ERA pitching with a WHIP of just 1.03 and a better than 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio.  However, the bad years balance out his resume and his career ERA of 3.67 is decent if not spectacular.  Having earned $6 million for last season and producing his best year to date, he’s likely looking for Jerry Blevins money which means he may not be of interest to the Mets.

Speaking of the former (and often sole) lefty in the Mets pen, he had a rather forgettable 2018 but had proven himself quite reliable during his tenure in orange and blue.     His 4.85 ERA was more than a full run higher than his career mark of 3.52 and as such he’ll likely want to get paid similarly to the $5.5 million he earned last season.  Certainly he’ll get a tad less than Sipp but more than either Avilan or Perez.

There are a plethora of other lefty options, including Justin Wilson who earned a tick over $1.5 million last year but struggles by putting a lot of men on base (though usually wriggling out of it).  Zach Duke and others who throw from the left side are there for the taking, but the overall numbers are average at best. 

My first choice would be Luis Avilan as he could provide potentially several years of productive pitching whereas Ollie is in the twilight of his career.  Perez would indeed be number two with perhaps offering Jerry Blevins a low-cost deal for a few years as option three.