Reese Kaplan -- You Can't Trade HIM....He's a Sure Thing!

While evaluating prospects you occasionally become convinced that some are destined for greatness but for reasons due to health, skill or off-the-field issues cripple the great untapped potential. 

Recently many would have put a guy like Zack Wheeler on that list who came up with quite a reputation and delivered a terrific rookie campaign, a solid follow up in 2014 but then his arm troubles began.  Many pretty much wrote him off until last year he put together a 4.2 WAR season which included a 12-7 record, a best-ever 3.31 ERA (even better in the 2^nd half of the season), and a best ever greater than 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio. 

Other recent Mets who would make this list are sleepy headed Dominic Smith whose minor league success never translated into productivity at the major league level.  Smith took a little while to get it together to justify his high draft position.  His batting average and defensive prowess were there from the start, but he showed no power and little in the way of RBI production.  His .295 rookie league campaign took a step backwards with a .271 the following season, but in St. Lucie he eclipsed .300 for the first time.  In Binghamton in 2016 the middle-of-the-order bat started to emerge as he whacked 14 HRs but drove in 91 while keeping his average again north of .300.  In 2017 in Las Vegas he really put it together when combined he hit .320 with 26 HRs and 102 RBIs between AAA and the Mets.  Last season started off on a sour note with the alarm clock issue, the subsequent foot injury and his banishment to AAA for most of the year where the newly svelte Smith only hit .258 with 6 HRs and 41 RBIs in a hitter-friendly league.  Now he’s mostly an afterthought after a failed experiment as an outfielder. 

There is another current Met who I felt was in that category.  Peruse the minor league numbers of Paul Sewald and you will see someone who was punching above his weight level for sure.  Suppose I offered you an anonymous prospect who had a 20-8 minor league record with a career ERA of 2.16 and a better than 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio in a trade?  You’d break your finger getting to the phone, right?  Unfortunately the majors have not been kind at all to Mr. Sewald through parts of two seasons in which he’s accumulated a fugly 0-13 record with an ERA of 5.25 with a drop of 2.89 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio.  He’s hanging onto his 40-man roster spot by his fingernails. 

We’re all familiar with the many names of players the Mets retained rather than use as trade chips which came back to bite them, including Fernando Martinez, Benny Ayala, Gavin Cecchini, Generation K, and others.  However, we all surely have some more obscure players we felt were destined for far more than they achieved. 

A recent corner infielder who was only granted a whopping 31 ABs in the majors was Zach Lutz.  He'd never shown the eye-popping power that makes folks take note, but he always had an RBI bat and hit .282 for his minor league career.  Some foot problems derailed an otherwise promising career that has now extend to Japan and the Independent leagues.  

I remember in my grade school days watching the offensive exploits of one Brock Pemberton, a switch hitting 1^st baseman who did not have much power but who hit around .290 throughout his minor league career.  It’s a tough road for singles hitting corner infielders to make it to the bigs to stay and such was the case with Pemberton. 

Another one who never measured up to expectations developed a reputation as a Spring Training superstar, outfielder Darren Reed.  He once put together a .321/28/95 minor league season.  The batting average dipped later on as he ascended the ladder but did have a AAA campaign in which he hit .265/17/65 which suggested his offensive prowess was for real (if not spectacular).  Unfortunately, over a 153 AB trial in the majors he didn’t eclipse the Mendoza line though did hit 6 HRs and drove in 16 which would translate to 24/64 over the course of a single season had he gotten the opportunity.  He finished his career hitting .345 at age 30 for the Duluth-Superior Independent League team. 

Who will you admit to having had on your “sure thing” list who never achieved that potential?