7/2/20

John From Albany - WOO, WHAT A 2020 METS DEFENSIVE ALIGNMENT.



The other day Tom talked about the Mets potential offense this year.  I agree it could be quite the potent offensive powerhouse. 

But how would the defense look related to the DRS (defensive runs saved)?

C: Wilson Ramos -11; 1B: Pete Alonso -3;  2B: Robinson Cano -6 (down from +5 with Seattle in 2018); SS: Amed Rosario -10; 3B: Jeff McNeil +4; RF: Michael Conforto 0; CF: Brandon Nimmo -3; LF: J.D. Davis -11;

That is a historically bad -40 DRS for your starting 8 defenders with only one plus defender, Jeff McNeil at 3B.

Per the NY Daily News:  “For the third straight year, the Mets finished in the bottom five in the league in Defensive Runs Saved (-93; 29th) and bottom 10 in Ultimate Zone Rating (-12.8; 24th) in 2019, per Fangraphs. The Amazin’s -93 DRS were second only to the Orioles’ -105.“ It doesn’t look like it will get better this year.

But wait you say – “we have the DH this year.  We could make Cano the DH and put McNeil at second.”  

Last year McNeil had -1 DRS at 2B and who would play 3B?  J.D. Davis had a -9 at the position.  If you do that, move Brandon Nimmo to LF (-1 DRS) and put Marisnick and his +6 DRS in CF your score goes to -29.

But how can we not have a horrendous defense and still hit the ball?

First, Tomas Nido (0 DRS) has to be the catcher over Wilson Ramos (-11 DRS). Wilson has had negative DRS since he has come back from his injury a few years ago and it has been getting worse each year, not better.  -3 DRS in 2017, -6 in 2018 and -11 last year. 

Wait, I’m not saying to bench Ramos.  I say carry three catchers.  Then, when ever Nido comes up with men on base in scoring position, Ramos will pinch hit.  Then Ali Sanchez will come in to catch the rest of the game.  If you carry four catchers with expanded rosters, you could pinch hit for Sanchez if he comes up with men on base.

Second, play Luis Guillorme +2 DRS at second keeping McNeil and his +4 DRS at 3B.  It keeps the 36 year old Cano and his declining mobility out of the middle of the infield and also should improve Rosario.  Amed Rosario made 14 of his 17 errors with Cano at 2B.  Cano played 2B in 99 games so that means Rosario made 82% of his errors in about 60% of his games (the games played with Cano).

I would finally DH Pete Alonso and play Dominic Smith +1 DRS at first. 

I would then use Cano, and Yoenis Céspedes as pinch hitters for some of the defenders when men are in scoring position. 

This alignment would bring the DRS to -17.  Still below average but less than half as bad as the projected -40 and better than the Cano DH plan which gets you to -29.

Want proof defense wns?

Gil Hodges won a WS in 1969 based on defense.  The Cardinals beat a superior Mets team in 1985 and 1987 in the 80’s because of defense.  The Royals beat the Mets in 2015 because of defense.  Fonzie won a championship in Brooklyn last year not by having top prospects, not by leading the league in hitting or pitching but leading the league in defense.

My prediction?  The Mets will take Tom’s advice and not mine.  As many games they win on offense, the Mets will lose on defense (and pitching with the loss of Wheeler and Thor). 

2020 record? 30 – 30. 

FYI, here are the DRS #’s for projected Mets fielders: 

1B: Pete Alonso -3;  Dominic Smith +1, Matt Adams +4 (lifetime +12!).

2B: Robinson Cano -6 (down from +5 with Seattle in 2018); Jeff McNeil -1; Luis Guillorme +2.






8 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Hey, John, interesting counterpoint.

I think JD Davis was bad defensively, in part, given how he was used. I am expecting him to defensively improve from atrocious to mediocre this year.

Alonso never stops working, so he ought to improve.

I think part of Cano's woes were the injuries he played through.

Amed Rosario got better defensively later in the season, and now that he is more familiar with Cano, that interesting negative correlation should improve.

All that to say, I expect better defense in 2020 than what we got in 2019, but still probably will end up with one of the poorer defensive teams.

Back to offense for a sec, I did an article for Friday on the subject of the DH, which ought to prove interesting, perhaps DEE-LIGHTFUL.

The Cardinals won in 1985 and 1987 not just due to great defense, but for 3 other reasons: great speed, great offense, great John Tudor, who was ultra-deadly those two seasons after Memorial Day, as I outlined in an article recently. After Memorial day in 1985 and 1987, John Tudor combined went 30-3. Pretty sick.

Mack Ade said...

John

There are not enough good defensive players on the team to pull this off.

They are a bad team defensivly. Period.

Pray for 6 runs a game.

Hobie said...

I not sure what to say about a stat that lays a 0, +6, -1 on the same guy in LF, CF & RF, and would indictae that swapping Cespedes/Davis at DH/LF is a major plus.

John From Albany said...

I see your point Hobie. Per Fangraphs: "DRS...rates individual players as above or below average on defense." So while Marisnick is above average in CF (because of ground he covers, etc.) he is just around average in LF or RF as ground coverage is not a big deal and I am guessing his arm strength is below average for RF (hence the -1).

I like the stat because when I watch a game and see a poor fielder they sometimes have a good fielding percentage. This stat seems to agree with what my eyes tell me. A number of people like Nimmo as a CF but I have seen him miss balls other CF would get to. This stat bears this out.

bill metsiac said...

I'm older school (and older, period) than anyone here, and don't see how the newer stats like DRS and range factors are significant.

Just using my eyes (mostly via TV) I will go oit on a limb and say that Amed is far from as awful as his -10 seems to indicate.

And for the life of me I don't see how correlating his Error totals with the identity of the 2Bman playing when he made them.

We don't have a lineup of GGers, but I lean on the side of pitching and offense predominating.

I was probably Lagares' #1 booster here, but I still wouldn't play him over a healthy Nimmo.

John From Albany said...

You make sense Bill. I was thinking if one player was a defensive liability, other players may play worse when they are paired together. Fact, Rosario and Alonso made most of their errors in the first part of the year with Cano at 2B. Is that a coincidence? Maybe. They did not revert to early season form when he came back in September.

I was thinking more of the impact that Keith made when he joined the team. Everyone got better. Luis Guillorme is plus defender. If he was playing and Cano was used as a pinch hitter in key situations, it could give the Mets the best return. Don’t think we will find out unless things go very bad.

John From Albany said...

Tom had to look those Card-Met teams up. Your points hold best in 1985: Cards scored more runs and had a higher BA in 85
and only made 108 errors to the Mets 115.

In 1987 Mets scored more runs and had a higher BA. Mets also hit almost 100 more homers than the Cards in 87. Still the Cards won in part to the reasons you mention but also they made just 116 Errors to the Mets 137. That could have been the three game difference right there.

Tony said...

Their defense is questionable, but there is room for improvement.