WHAT TO DO, WHAT TO DO?
After a long and highly successful minor league career as a reliever, the Mets' Paul Sewald has not had it easy as a Met reliever:
1-14, 5.16 career.
So how would you use him in 2020, assuming he is on the squad?
The Sewald career numbers are informative.
Paul has thrown 141 Mets' innings with 149 Ks.
But, yeah...1-14.
His overall numbers, on a bit of a deeper dive, are quite interesting.
In "low leverage" situations, he has faced 355 batters (60% roughly of his total batters faced) and allowed a very fine batters' split of .221/.268/.344.
I'd take that, any day.
In "high leverage" situations, though, an entirely different picture:
134 batters faced, a staggering .327/.411/.682. No wonder he's 1-14. Major league hitters are locked in in such situations, and he falls short against the elite in high pressure spots.
Medium leverage situations? In-between the high and low leverage results: .286/.353/.495 in 119 PAs. Not terrible, but certainly not good.
Seems to indicate that Paul should still pitch for the Mets, but only, if at all possible, in low leverage situations.
Save situations?
Whereas he was great in the minors in save situations, with the Mets in 24 games, he saved JUST THREE, went 0-3, and had an 8.39 ERA.
Clearly don't use him there, unless desperate.
Most of his games were no decisions - he was fine there, in 122 out of his 141 career innings, with a 3.54 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 131 Ks.
But in his 14 losses, an un-goshly 18.96 ERA, another indicator to keep him the heck out of high leverage situations.
And if you can use him a lot in low pressure situations, all the better. On zero days rest, batters hit .178 against him, and on one day rest, a mere .204.
And keep him the heck away from the Braves and Nationals, against whom he allowed 26 runs in 30 IP. And the Yankees and Red Sox, allowing 7 runs in 3.1 IP. Those 4 teams are the definition of High Leverage.
Also shows that pattern in using him against sub .500 teams (4.15 ERA) vs. winning teams (5.91 ERA).
CONCLUSION:
Paul can be a very useful innings-eater reliever in low leverage situations, based on his career record. Keep him out of games where the game is on the line. Pitch him against sub .500 teams only, wherever possible, too.
At least that is what his resume tells me.
3 comments:
Expect to see a LOT of Paul Sewald this year with multiple pitchers on the shelf already.
Tom
I have no idea how to put a positive spin on a 1-14, 5.16 career.
It is critical we produce a winning pen this year.
Mack and Reese, I think Sewald is a guy for low leverage games only i.e., when Mets are winning big against a non-lethal hitting team, or trailing big. He seems to do well in those situations.
I agree with Reese that with so many missing arms already, Sewald and his 1-14, 5.16 will be needed and need to break that losing mold.
He was 1-1 last year, so maybe getting off the schneid. Heck, Drew Gagnon was 3-1 despite an 8.37 ERA last year. Sewald is better than Gagnon.
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