9/29/21

Mike's Mets - The Real Work Lies Ahead




In my last post, I shared some thoughts on the current punditry that the New York Mets organization has reverted to WILPON ERA DYSFUNCTION. Especially amusing was the idea that the value of the Mets had "gone backward significantly," with Steve Cohen's tweets a significant contributor to that drop in value. This was a ludicrous statement from an unnamed "former MLB executive." The Mets organization has indeed made some serious, high-profile blunders since Cohen took over. Still, the Mets are a viable franchise in the country's largest (by far) sports market. There's a difference between temporary setbacks and long-term trends that would hurt the franchise's value as a whole.

Don't get me wrong. Cohen didn't do himself any favors by trying to out the source of that infamous quote in Mike Puma's article. It's likely that Cohen himself, in hindsight, would have passed on making that emotional reaction. However, I'm sure that he fully understands that the Mets need to succeed in finding the elusive President of Baseball Operations that they whiffed on last winter. The Mets can't continue to flounder around as an organization as they have this year. A strong hand needs to be hired to take the wheel going forward.

I outlined in my last piece why it would be challenging to lure a young executive like the Brewers' David Stearns, Cleveland's Mike Chernoff, or the Rays' Erik Neander — three of the prominent names linked to the Mets executive search. In a nutshell, they're already at or near the top of their profession, making an excellent living and doing their jobs in markets with far fewer media outlets and outside pressure. Barring some sort of catastrophic public scandal in their personal lives, it's hard to see any of these guys not working for their respective organizations for as long as they desire. Moreover, there is no guarantee that any of these clubs will give the Mets permission to talk to them.

Provided that the Mets do indeed receive permission to speak with someone they really like, it would likely take a contract rich in both dollars and years to overcome whatever trepidation their target might have about job security in the New York market. In the case of Billy Beane or Theo Epstein, Cohen will have to be willing to offer an ownership stake similar to the 4% of the A's Beane currently holds. With all due respect to the Oakland franchise, a similar percentage of the Mets would be worth much more. Needless to say, the Mets better make the correct choice in whoever they hire for the job. It won't be a simple matter to change course if things don't work out.

One former executive whose name hasn't come up all that often is former GM and PBO of the Houston Astros Jeff Luhnow. Luhnow wasn't directly implicated in the infamous trash can lid scandal, but he didn't do anything to stop it, either. He was suspended by MLB and subsequently fired by Astros owner Jim Crane. Luhnow has always claimed to have known nothing about the cheating. Even if he didn't, as the man running everything, he certainly should have.

Most of the names closely tied to cheating are getting second chances. A.J. Hinch has been hired to manage the Detroit Tigers. Alex Cora is back running the Red Sox. This despite both actually being in the dugout while the cheating was happening, with Cora actively participating in it. What's really working against Luhnow is that he's never really taken responsibility for his failure in allowing the cheating to go on for so long, and he wasn't well-liked in the game.

Luhnow has some definite qualifications for the Mets job. He enjoyed success in rebuilding the Astros. He came from the Cardinals organization before that, which has sustained success in a market that isn't very large. It would seem that Luhnow might be a reasonable target for the Mets if they fail to land Beane, Epstein, Stearns, or any of their other top targets.

On the other hand, maybe his stubbornness in seeing himself as a victim and not taking responsibility for what went down in Houston argues against the likelihood of Jeff Luhnow thriving in this overheated media market. However, I would be surprised if the Mets didn't at least talk with the man. His time away from the game may have given him a better perspective on things with the Astros. A longshot for sure, but an interesting one.

Since I began writing this post a few days ago, Joel Sherman wrote a piece for the New York Post that touched on the possibility of the Mets hiring Luhnow. Sherman did an excellent job summarizing Luhnow's qualifications for the position and also the case against hiring him:
[Luhnow] is, in many ways, the ideal candidate for the Mets’ president of baseball operations job. He almost certainly would speak the same business and financial language as owner Steve Cohen. Cohen has insisted he does not want to train someone on his dime to do this job. Luhnow would need no training. But the Mets, more than any team, need not to associate right now with scandal, considering their persistent dysfunction. And Luhnow’s history has consisted of being too near third rails, if not standing right on them.

One reason he has not received another MLB job opportunity was that he made so few friends in the game. Luhnow brought a corporate culture, the likes of which MLB had never experienced before, to the Astros’ baseball operations. It was methodical, efficient and competent. But also ruthless and without empathy.

Luhnow had a reputation for not treating people well. The Astros often acted near or beyond the lines when it came to rules, and their feel for people was poor. A culture formed and from that culture, among other things, came the sign stealing and an assistant GM who taunted female reporters while praising alleged domestic abuser Roberto Osuna — a reliever who was only an Astro because they saw his talent without enough concerns about what his presence said. Also, Houston might have been Ground Zero for pitchers illegally weaponizing extreme sticky substances.

Cohen spoke at his initial press conference last year about winning the right way, and Jeff Luhnow hasn't had the career that would fit that description. Luhnow's poor reputation for treating people who worked under him wouldn't make him a good choice for the type of collaborative work environment that Cohen and Alderson have spoken of as a goal for the Mets.

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2 comments:

nickel7168 said...

A PROPOSED METS STRATEGY FOR 2022

This is my own analysis and proposed strategy for next season. It does not consider what some unknown-at-this-point new head of Baseball Operations will do or if some of our under-performing offensive players might be traded. Nor am I suggesting FAs that we might sign...I don’t have a crystal ball.

For the Mets to improve their offense in 2022, there are only a few positions that might be available. Let's make a few presumptions.

let's presume:
1. that they re-sign Baez...he is a special player at bat, in the field, and on the base paths.
He quite likely has the best baseball instincts and baseball I.Q. I have ever seen. Besides, stellar middle infield defense is essential for a team with championship aspirations.
2. Conforto is gone as a FA...we love him, but he was the biggest offensive let-down this season and RF needs to be open for a more consistent hitter.
3. there is a universal DH, and that's where we stick Cano, who we are stuck with.
4. Villar is gone as a FA...to somewhere that will play him every day, and we need an bigger bat upgrade at 3B anyway.
4. Of the players under contract, Dom and J.D. (who both had bad years) need to stay on the bench as the L & R pinch hitters, McNeil (who had a bad year) could be a full-time IF-OF utility man, and our catchers need to remain unchanged despite McCann's disappointing season. What choice do we have.
This would allow us to add a 3B, and two OFs. With the right acquisitions, that could really boost the offense when added to Nimmo, Lindor, Alfonso, Baez, & DH Cano.

For the pitching staff in 2022, starters like Walker and McGill, who have been gassed the whole 2nd half, from having pitched so few innings in 2020, should not have that problem in 2022.
Stroman, who has been our best starter since deGrom went down, is going to get a lot of big offers as a FA. And the thing is, we have 6 returning starters without him...
deGrom
Thor (re-signed)
Walker
Carrasco
Peterson
McGill

And some AAA depth with:
Lucchesi
Yamamoto
Szapucki
Hill (if re-signed)
Trevor Williams
Stock
and possibly up and comers, Josh Walker or Adam Oller could appear in ML by season's end

I'm suggesting we might not try to outbid everyone to keep Stroman as a 7th starter. Spend that money on the new 3B, and two OFs.

In the pen everyone wants to see FA Loup re-signed and FA Familia gone...so be it.
That leaves us with the folowing 40-man roster relievers:
Diaz, Edwin (RRP)
Lugo, Seth (RRP)
May, Trevor (RRP)
Loup, Aaron (LRP) re-signed
Castro, Miguel (RRP)
Smith, Drew (RRP)
Nogosek, Stephen (RRP)
Diaz, Yennsy (RRP)
Reed, Jake (RRP)
Reid-Foley, Sean (RRP)

FA Hand will be too expensive to re-sign, and doesn't look worth it anyway. FA Heath Hembree is a cheap questionable re-sign. Dellin Betances get bought out.
The remaining pen looked great until they were overused by the 2nd half but I expect some acquisitions and/or trades in building the 2022 pen. Especially to add another closer with Diaz entering his walk year and wildly unpopular with many fans. [personally, I like his electric stuff and his ability to make it look so easy most of the time... as of 9/29/21. he has 31 saves in 37 save opportunities, and not many closers are much better than that...every closer has blown saves.]

Examples: NL thru 8/29/21...AL similar
Alex Reyes STL 29 of 34
Giovanny Gallegos STL 14 of 22
Richard Rodriguez ATL 14 of 17
Will Smith ATL 36 of 42
Kenley Jansen LAD 37 of 42
Blake Treinen LAD 7 of 11
Josh Hader MIL 34 of 35
Brad Boxberger MIL 4 of 9
Daniel Bard COL 20 of 28
Carlos Estevez COL 10 of 16
Yimi Garcia MIA 15 of 18
Dylan Floro MIA 13 of 19
Brad Hand 2021 21 of 28
Tyler Rogers SF 13 of 19
Chris Stratton PIT 7 of 11
Kyle Finnegan WSH 11 of 15
Lucas Sims CIN 7 of 10
Mark Melancon SD 38 of 44
Hector Neris PHI 12 of 19
Craig Kimbrel CHC 23 of 25

Anonymous said...

Good analysis overall.

Of the six starters you highlighted first, I think it is right now only three instead, deGrom, Thor, and Walker. Carrasco is hard to count on still with his injuries in 2021. Peterson and Megill showed "some promise" earlier on, but also are not a 100% given thing yet.

Mets have Yamamoto and perhaps Josh Walker to look at in ST. But Lucchesi I recently read may be lost for the entire 2022 season. I like Drew Smith, but he was hurt some second half of this season. With him, I might bring him to Winter Ball and see if it is possible to get him a look as a potential fifth (or even sixth) starter for 2022. I think that he could do that.

Realistically speaking, the Mets have three given starters right now. Taijuan is one. But here, if you look at Taijuan's five strikeouts yesterday, four were on secondary (curve ball) pitches 88-89 mph. So I think he will have to be monitored some throwing more fastballs in 2022, and maybe not automatically be handed a starting spot in ST 2022.

So if the Mets can come to ST 2022 with like 7-8 bonafide starting pitcher possibilities (maybe one or two younger ones from Syracuse in 2021) then I think they will be in a very good position for the 2022 season. They absolutely will need one more really good top end starter added during the off season. But they have trade possibilities here now for that I believe.

Sandy Alderson is the absolute best at this too.

The possibility of going to the "six man rotation idea" should be re-explored carefully should management here agree. They might find it a wise to do to keep their hardest throwing starters (deGrom, Syndergaard, and Walker) on the field all of 2022. THis to me is vital for any chances in 2022. It might just help for each to be tossing games every sixth game instead of the fifth as they have been doing. But I won't be certain until I see it happen. It's an idea that has been tossed around since Jerry Manual's tenure here.

But the health of the starting rotation in 2022 is so entirely paramount.