During a conversation with fellow Mets fans we got into several debates about the large cadre of underperformers on the ballclub and who folks think deserve another try and who should be traded away or allowed to leave in free agency. The main culprits in this discussion were Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith. All of these lefty batters have very much let the team down in 2021, so whoever is in the front office during the upcoming off-season needs to make some tough choices about who belongs as part of the future.
Conspicuously absent from this discussion are the $341 million man playing shortstop and his free agent double play partner at second base. Francisco Lindor did seem to pick up his game a bit in the latter half of the season, but the numbers were already so bad that it's impossible for him to finish with anything near expectation. Given the huge size of his contract, he's here for the long haul.
Regarding Javy Baez, wow, there's no quicker way to get Mets fans to argue about whether to keep him, ditch him or try to get him to linger on a Qualifying Offer. Considering he'd make just under $20 million on a QO, that would seem to be on the light side for a guy not yet 30 who has already twice been an All Star, finished 2nd in the MVP race once and has a Gold Glove on his mantle. Think Lindor type money in order to keep him and with the huge number of holes the team needs to fill, it's highly unlikely they will dip their toes into that very deep well once again.
So that brings us back to the lefty hitters in question. Let's address one at a time and decide on their merits.
Michael Conforto
There's no delicate way to put it. Conforto has had a miserable 2021 and his timing for it couldn't be worse given he's in his walk year. He's hitting a paltry .220 with 12 HRs and 45 RBIs. He's seemed to come to life a bit more in the second half of the season, but like Lindor it's too late for the numbers to be fixed by year's end. Many people feel that a player who was groomed in-house by the Mets is somehow worthy of retaining as long as possible and they will quickly point to his 2019 full season during which he clubbed 33 HRs and drove in 92 while hitting .257. That year was good for a 3.6 WAR rating but this year he's stumbling along with a 0.6 score. To hear some folks tell it, he's the next big thing while others are ready to scrap him completely after one poor year. To me he's a left handed version of Kevin McReynolds, perhaps a tick more power and a tick less in the batting average.
A qualifying offer will jump him in pay from $12.25 million to nearly $20 million. Given what he's done this year, it's highly unlikely someone is going to want to fork out major money until he proves it was just a short term fluke. Still, giving him the QO is a 70% jump in pay to gamble he'll improve. Then he's a free agent again in 2022 and you start the whole bid/value thing all over again. Personally I think the right approach is to offer him a below market multi year contract or let him walk away. The QO is a risk because he might take it, though it's only a one-year thing. If you approached him with a deal like the one Curtis Granderson got -- four years and $64 million, then he'd have to think long and hard about guaranteed money now vs. selling himself coming off his worst year ever.
During our debate over these players it was amazing to see how quickly everyone abandoned McNeil after his dismal 2021 season. His power is down, his average is down and once again he's a man without a steady position. Right now he's hitting just .243 with only 6 HRs and 32 RBIs with over a half season's worth of ABs. Coming into this year he had a career batting average of .319 and in 2019 he hit 23 HRs, earning himself an All Star berth.
I referred to him as Tony Gwynn Lite in that he would not be a slugger per se but could reliably be counted upon to hit above .300 wherever you choose to play him. Gwynn's career average was 19 points higher but his HR best-ever total was just 17. Early in his career he stole a lot of bases but as he aged and gained weight that part of his game disappeared. Still, no one would object to having that kind of reliable bat in the lineup every day.
So what is the market for a high average, moderate power type of hitter? I'd look across town at one D.J. LeMahieu whose exodus from Colorado didn't ensure he would stumble with his bat. He hit .327 during his first year in the Bronx and followed it up in his pandemic year of 2020 with a .364 average. Overall he has a career average of .301 and, except for his one year of high power with 26 HRs, he's never shown much in the way of run production. For those efforts he's got a 6-year $90 million contract averaging out at $15 million per year. That's likely what McNeil is worth on the open market. To me, I'd bring him back in a heartbeat while he's earning a minimal salary and root for a comeback.
Dominic Smith
As quickly as people were ready to abandon McNeil, the fact is they were enthusiastic in their negative evaluation of Dom Smith. After finishing 2019 and 2020 strongly, many penciled him in to be a 20 HR+ hitter with a high batting average. Imagine their surprise this year to see a .243 batting average. The power numbers are not horrible. He has 11 HRs and 55 RBIs in about 2/3 of a season's output, but after consecutive years finishing with .282 and .316 averages people were most certainly expecting more.
The debate quickly centered around the position of DH and whether it would make sense to retain Smith to play 1st and convert Pete Alonso to a young designated hitter. This debate is still rhetorical until the next CBA comes up for negotiation and there's still a guy sitting out this year who is older than both of them who might be better suited to the role -- Robinson Cano. Right now Smith earns just $2.55 million and isn't eligible to be a free agent until 2025. I would think it's good business to see what he can do as he is still just 26 years of age. Worse comes to worst, he can still man left field if there is no DH option in the near future.
So what is the overall consensus here? Do you keep all three, lose all three, or pick and choose?
One final unrelated set of words for today -- never forget:
8 comments:
Baez for 10 years? Not another contract like that.
Conforto one year? I could live with it.
Smith and McNeil - cheap enough to keep, but this team has been miserable at scoring, injuries or not. Changes need to be made.
They may, however, decide to go short and hope Baty, Alvarez, Vientos, and possibly Mauricio are ready to be major producers by OD 2023. Me? I'd stay short, and see how those 4 in particular do in 2022. Alex Ramirez, too. Khalil Lee seems like a 4th or 5th OF to me - his OBP in AAA is excellent, but his hit tool is coming up a bit short. I don't want hitters who cannot produce against MLB pitching.
My comment -
1, Conforto - his resurgence near the end of this season, coupled with the lack of high level OF talent in the chain, demand at least a QO offer to him for 2022. Past that, make the call to Bore Ass if you can stomach it.
2. McNeil - Depends if you sign Baez. If you do, trade him for pitching or outfield depth.
3. Dom - Has the most potential trade value. Go get yourself a decent rotation piece and don't embarrass the young man by trading him for a better outfielder.
4. Never forget? Trust me... after recent events... I will NEVER forget.
Agree with Mack on Conforto.......his overall body of work suggests that 2021 is (hopefully) an aberration and he is worth at least a QO (if he declines and gets a great offer, then we get a pick and if he accepts we get another year to evaluate his future).
JM and Dom are worth keeping since they are relatively cheap and have decent track records (except for this year).
I still say something isn't right with the coaching/player development/strength and conditioning program.....too many good players have had a collective down year, not to mention the avalanche of injuries.
Best investment for 2022 is for Steve Cohen to clean house and a bring in a new coaching staff approach.
***Side note, I think I threw up in my mouth at the thought of Javier Baez signed to a Lindor like contract! You are right that his age/track record will likely land a large deal from somewhere, but if the Mets did something like that.......never mind, I don't want to even jinx it by saying it.
.....that should say "Coaching Staff/approach"
Oh and I cannot believe that it has been 20 years since 9/11.......still seems like yesterday.
RIP to all the folks that were lost that day.
The Lindor contract wasn’t bad, it just seemed unnecessarily early for it. Was he getting more later, or was there a risk he would bolt? He’s a good player. Baez is a pretty good player, at best. Two more mistakes on the bases to add to his resumeand he swings at everything,. You cannot QO a player that was traded mid-season. I would prefer Correa or Seager.
Conforto at best is a 4 WAR player. That has value. I’d QO him.
Smith? His value was highest last year. I would say hold.
McNeil? Probably has the highest value of the three. If I’m signing another infielder, I have to move McNeil. I like him, but I’m re-signing Villar unless he wants crazy money to back up, I’m signing Correa or Seagar to add a good hitter to the lineup that can play third base, so I’d move McNeil but only if the package is good.
Cano would be a waste of a roster spot. A 39 year old that hasn’t played in over a year will not get his timing down. He will suck and your team will suffer. I know he gets the money, but he’s a sunk cost.
Lastly, once more the Mets will need to build a Front Office after the off-season begins, which will put them at a disadvantage. If I’m Cohen, I would be calling around already.
Hey if Lindor wasn't signed and you had to pick one right now Baez is the better choice. Good bad or indifferent he a more exciting player and makes it happen on the basepaths like no one else we have. I would QO MC but we can't QOer Baez right? Also signing Stro is a must do and how about MeGill last night his best one so far. All my thought's and prayers on this somber day RIP. Bruce singing "I'll See you in my Dreams" was very touching this morning.
The big question on signing Lindor was the same one that has hurt us many times before: who else was going to sign him for anything close to that contract even if he had a good year. Bidding agains't yourself is just dumb and for smart man like Stevie C. it just doesn't make sense.
Conforto: Knowing what we know about him, would I want him as part of my outfield? The answer is undeniably "Yes". He has has a poor year this year, but the bigger question is "How does one negotiate with Boras for the right contract?" I think a Qualifying Offer is a slam dunk from the team persepective, even after his 2021. I also believe that it will be rejected. I like the thought that Reese offers - a contract similar to Granderson's, but I suspect that is perhaps about half of what Boras has in mind. This will be a very difficult one, and I think the biggest loser in it might just be Conforto.
McNeil: As he is under team control for a few more years, there is no rush to do anything, but he is probably the best trade option. I would also wait until the Conforto situation clarifies a bit, as Jeff could be the best right field option in 2022, particularly if Baez is re-signed to play second base.
Smith: This is a tough one because for some reason Smith has been my favorite Met since he came up, and even before that - from the time he was drafted, so there is more emotion than logic in this one. His trade value is low and I believe he will bounce back from a poor 2021 to have a solid 2022, even if he is the everyday left-fielder. There are worse options.
In short, all three have had disappointing seasons this year, but all three are better. Smith and Conforto may never duplicate their 2020 year and McNeil might not be what he was in 2019, but they are most certainly better than this year.
Nimmo is another lefty that perhaps should be in this discussion and will be a free agent after 2022. Does he really provide the value needed from a starting outfielder? I like him a lot as a player/person/character, but this may be the right time to move him.
Good discussion!
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