He was a highly touted catching prospect who moved rapidly through the minor leagues. One of his strongest points was the rapport he built with the pitching staff. He commanded the game from behind the plate, but had trouble throwing out base runners. This season he is batting just over .250 with an OPS in the 700’s while playing around 60% of his team’s games.
I could be talking about Francisco Alvarez, but I could also be talking about Travis d’Arnaud. You see, their stats are almost identical this year and I find that very concerning. Travis d’Arnaud came to New York in 2013 with great expectations but after six seasons with the team he was sent packing. The front office and the fan base were disappointed in his struggles with defense against the running game, his inconsistent hitting, and inability to stay healthy. In those six seasons, d’Arnaud had one notable year (2015) where he had an .825 OPS and played an important role for the NL pennant winners – but still only played in 67 games.
Francisco Alvarez feels like a different guy, but the stats do not show it. His career slash line of .225/.295/.430 is not very impressive for a guy that was touted for his power bat throughout his prospect years. It is painful to watch him now as opposing pitchers exploit his inability to recognize the slider that starts as a strike but breaks down and away from his bat.
Alvarez had weak to average defensive skills while in the minors, but proved a quick study and by the time he reached the majors he played very well, blocking balls, framing balls, and showing off a very strong arm with snap throws to all bases. Lately though, his defensive game has been off. He has shown lapses of concentration including passed balls that should have been caught and a very embarrassing play where a runner stole third on Alvarez’ lazy throw back to the pitcher.
This season, Alvarez is batting .255 with a .708 OPS, but it would be even worse if you eliminate his strong month of June. Without his hot 48 bats in June, Alvarez is slashing .224/.264/.328 which is slightly worse than his career averages. Backup catcher Luis Torrens is throwing out runners at a much higher rate than Alvarez, which eliminates the pitchers as an excuse for Francisco’s low 11% caught stealing rate. An interesting statistical view of Alvarez is that his pop time is in the 81st percentile yet his caught stealing rate is in the 39th percentile. He has an 80.6 arm strength rating, so the difference has to be throwing accuracy.
There have been bouts with injury, including thumb surgery this year. The catcher position is always one filled with bumps and bruises so it is not uncommon for catchers to be out. Hand problems can affect batting, but I don’t think his hands have anything to do with the inability to hit the slider. So if it is not a physical ailment, it must be mental.
The Mets need Alvarez to get on a roll, to hit with some power, and to reclaim his mojo behind the plate. I believe it is entirely up to him to work out the bugs and start playing at a high level again. His mental approach needs improvement on both sides of the ball.
I have always been excited about Francisco Alvarez and his potential to be a star with the Mets. But this year has been a disappointment in all phases of his game. Knowing the patience of Mets fans and the long history of catcher turnover on this team, I think that Alvarez needs to turn things around very quickly.
7 comments:
Paul,
Is that thumb worse than we have been told? He certainly does not look the same as he did in 2023.
I think his problem is perhaps coaching. I am guessing they want to have him work the count. As such, only one of every 9 plate appearances end on the first pitch. He hits .520 (13 for 25). When the at bat ends on pitches where the count was 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, he is 8 for 13 with 4 walks. So, in the 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, and 3-0 counts, he hits .550 (21 for 38), but they only comprise 1 of every 6 plate appearances. In his other .187 at bats, he is hitting .165. He needs instead, it seems, to be super aggressive. He’ll likely hit a lot better. Will he swing at some bad pitches? Yes. But he will hit better overall.
He is not the same up there
I'm concerned about the lack of progress from our young players.
The only real positive this year in player development is Vientos. Alvy has taken big step backward and the disappering act by Nimmo is very concerning but really it won't matter much after we go thru the gauntlet of O's pods and Dbacks.
While the data cited is correct, I disagree with the explanation. In fact the pitches Alvarez produces worse on include all pitches on or near the outside corner. He has not adjusted his distance from the plate and actually has poor plate coverage. He 'takes' and 'swings and misses' both on sliders and fastballs at the outer 1/8 of the plate. Most people praise extending the arms into contact, but that is not quite right. In a swing that is efficient and maximally powerful, (relative to available energy created) energy is drawn from the ground and has to get ultimately to the arms, hands and bat. That requires transfer up the chain through legs, pelvis and especially lats, the largest muscles and then through the shoulders to the arms. When the arms are moved by the transfer of energy through the shoulders, all is good. But if the arms are extended independently all energy is what is available through the arms, wrists and hands. Result is weak contact, lack of power. So even if he did recognize the slider better than he does, the absence of plate coverage. He is more concerned unfortunately to focus on efficient of transfer of power to hit pitches on the inner half . But ironically his positioning at the plate does not reflect an appropriate understanding of the pitches he can most efficiently handle. They are not the ones off the inside part of the plate as he crunches up and does not extend efficiently; and he is nearly hopeless when facing pitches on the outer part of the plate, not to mention outside of that and not strikes. You have to not just recognize pitches or 'reach them', you have to be able to understand the conditions under which you transfer energy most efficiently and maximize that distance while optimizing coverage and without wide dropoff between the two. Right now, he doesn't have to change his stance, he needs to reassess relationship of where he is, how he moves efficiently and so on. There are batting coaches and I am sure they do a fine job, but there are also pitching coaches who are good, but aren't working with pitchers through an understanding of the underlying mechanics that cut across various styles and preferences. Got to understand energy transfer first, then there is ways of taking advantage of that relative to the biomechanics of particular players, then.... pitch recognition is essential, plate coverage must be optimized, but first you have to understand how it works, how you work within that framework and then figure out where to stand in the box...etc. Just like in golf, there are people who can do this intuitively, but most need to work from the concepts out, not what feels comfortable
Jules, thanks for your excellent take
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